A Case Study of Economic Analysis on R&D Investment

R&B 투자에 대한 경제성 분석의 사례연구 - 초전도 한류기 개발을 중심으로 -

Although each company is trying to develop an economic analysis model with its own particular style or format, the appropriate method is not yet developed because there are many problems to be solved such as uncertainity of outcomes and intangible benefits of technology. The purpose of tris paper therefore is to suggest an economic analysis methodology, which reflects the complexity and the risk of R&D investment, through a case study on the development of a superconductor fault current limiter. A self-developed Monte Carlo simulation program utilized as a main tool in this paper was very useful for risk analysis of R&D investment which could not be solved in the previous DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) model. We also introduce learning effect to consider the intangible benefits such as Know-How obtained from R&D execution. The expected value and its probability distribution for R&D investment can be obtained by combining the Monte Carlo method with the decision tree approach. This result is helpful in judging the priority and the resource-allocation of R&D projects. It is however necessary to develop more precise model for quantifying the technology stock and the simulation program using the continuous probability distribution in expected values to improve the reliability of economic analysis on R&D projects.