• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Allocation

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Insights for Improving Road Safety : Focusing on Vehicle Accidents in Daegu Metropolitan City

  • Mee Qi Siow;Yang Sok Kim;Mi Jin Noh;Choong Kwon Lee;Sang Ill Moon;Jae Ho Shin
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2023
  • Road accidents not only caused loss of human lives but also costed 3% of gross domestic product in most of the countries. The road accidents pose significant challenges to public safety and urban transportation management. There is a need to identify the high-risk area of accidents along with the critical day of week and vulnerable time period in order to implement effective preventive measures and optimizing the resource allocation. We collected 5,012 accident data from 대구교통종합정보. This study identified the high-risk locations, days of week, and time periods for accidents in Daegu and estimated the conditional probabilities of accidents occurring based on combinations of location, day of the week, and time period. The result is visualized in the form of dashboard in Tableau. This study holds substantial practical significance for urban planners, transportation authorities, and policymakers in Daegu to strategically allocate resources for traffic management, law enforcement, and targeted safety campaigns.

A Study on the Development of the Response Resource Model of Hazardous and Noxious Substances Based on the Risks of Marine Accidents in Korea (위험도에 기반한 HNS 방제자원 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Eun-Bang;Yun, Jong-Hwui;Chung, Sang-Tae
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.10
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    • pp.857-864
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    • 2012
  • Reviewing the statistics of harbor shipment of hazardous and noxious substance and the past spill accidents of HNS enabled us to assess the potential risks of transportation of HNS through the major harbors in Korea. Ulsan, Yeosu, Daesan port are relatively evaluated high risk in fire, health and environment disaster. Through the analysis of domestic preparedness to HNS accidents, the supplement of expertise resource to respond the vulnerability of the explosion, the fire and the physiological hazard, is required. Based on this risk assessment and review of the advanced case of Japan in building up HNS response system, a resource model at a national level was proposed which differentiates the sea areas for the proper allocation of resources to respond effectively to HNS accidents in the future.

Effect of Nordic Walking on Depression and Physical Function in the Elderly with High-Risk of Depression

  • An, Tae-Geun;Lee, Han-Suk;Park, Sun-Wook;Seon, Hee-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Physical Medicine
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2020
  • PURPOSE: This study examined the effects of Nordic walking on depression and the physical function of elderly patients with a high risk of depression. METHODS: This study was a blinded randomized allocation study; 32 elderly were assigned to a Nordic walking group (n = 17), consisting of 60 min Nordic walking (including warming up 5 min, warming down 5 min, and Nordic walking 50 min) two days per week for 12 weeks and general leisure group (n = 15), consisting of 60 min leisure program community center. The pre and post 12-week program, depression test, muscle strength (including grip test, and 30sec sit to stand), and balance (including Functional Reach test, and One Leg Standing test) were measured. A Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare within the group, and a Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare between the groups. RESULTS: After 12 weeks, only the Nordic walking group showed significant improvement in depression, muscle strength, and balance (p < .05). In the general leisure group, however, the left grip strength and Functional Reach Test (FRT) showed a significant decrease. The Nordic walking program was better than the general leisure group, and a significant difference was observed in depression, muscle strength, and balance between the two groups (p < .05). CONCLUSION: Nordic walking was effective for the elderly with a high risk of depression. Therefore, Nordic walking may be an option for preventing elderly mental disorders and functional improvement.

Development of an Strategic Model for the Selection of a National IT R&D Strategic Project (국가 IT R&D 전략과제 선정 모형개발)

  • Ryu, Dong-Hyun;Park, Jeong-Yong;Lee, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.501-509
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we offer a new strategic Portfolio Model for national IT R&D project selection in Korea. A risk and return (R-R) Portfolio Model was developed using an objectively quantified index on the two axes of risk and return, in order to select a strategic project and allocate resources in compliance with a national IT R&D strategy. We strategize using the R-R Portfolio Model to solve the non-strategy and subjectivity problems of the existing national R&D project selection Model. We also use the quantified evaluation index of the IT technology road map (TRM) and the technology level Survey (TLS) for the subjectivity of project selection, and try to discover the weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In addition, we intend to maximize the chance for a successful national IT R&D project, by selecting a strategic Portfolio project and balancing the allocation of resources effectively and objectively.

Simulation Modeling for Productivity Analysis of Concurrent Construction Method of External Insulation Finishing System in Apartment (공동주택용 외단열 적층시공 공법의 생산성 분석을 위한 시뮬레이션 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Min Ju;Kim, Taehoon;Lim, Hyunsu;Cho, Hunhee;Kang, Kyung-In
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2015.11a
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    • pp.68-69
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    • 2015
  • Traditional External Insulation Finishing System(EIFS) is applied to apartment construction by performing structural framework and insulation finishing work sequentially. Separate execution of the three works increases construction cost and duration. Concurrent construction method of EIFS, which performs framework and insulation finishing work simultaneously, is introduced in order to solve these problems. However, the introduced method is exposed to the risk of construction delay caused by bottlenecks due to interacting processes and resources. Therefore, this paper presents a simulation model suitable for estimating work productivity of the concurrent construction by considering predecessor and successor processes to optimize resource allocation and minimize construction delay.

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Bayesian analysis of financial volatilities addressing long-memory, conditional heteroscedasticity and skewed error distribution

  • Oh, Rosy;Shin, Dong Wan;Oh, Man-Suk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.507-518
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    • 2017
  • Volatility plays a crucial role in theory and applications of asset pricing, optimal portfolio allocation, and risk management. This paper proposes a combined model of autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH), and skewed-t error distribution to accommodate important features of volatility data; long memory, heteroscedasticity, and asymmetric error distribution. A fully Bayesian approach is proposed to estimate the parameters of the model simultaneously, which yields parameter estimates satisfying necessary constraints in the model. The approach can be easily implemented using a free and user-friendly software JAGS to generate Markov chain Monte Carlo samples from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters. The method is illustrated by using a daily volatility index from Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). JAGS codes for model specification is provided in the Appendix.

Incoterms 2010 and CISG (Incoterms 2010과 CISG)

  • Park, Nam-Kyu
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.49
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2011
  • Incoterms 2010 have been revised in line with the latest changes in contemporary commercial practice. An understanding of Incoterms 2010 is essential. The Incoterms rules on the use of domestic and international trade terms, facilitate the conduct of global trade. Reference to an Incoterms 2010 rule in a sale contract clearly defines the parties' respective obligations and reduces the risk of legal complications. In 1980 the United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods(CISG) was introduced to create international certainty and uniformity in the law and to govern issues that arise in an international sale of goods transaction. This paper focuses on harmony and ability of the CISG and Incoterms 2010 to govern contracts for the sale of goods.

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A Study on Determine SLV(Supplier Lifetime Value) for Selecting Supplier (공급자 선정을 위한 SLV(Supplier Lifetime Value) 결정에 관한 연구)

  • 채영철;양광모;강경식
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.113-116
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    • 2003
  • In the recent environment of globalization where fierce competitions exist between manufacturers, SRM(Supplier Relationship Management) plays important role in the strategies of companies, and managements of companies try their best efforts in establishing the strategy to accomplish the innovative relationship between supply chain channels. The structure of the partnerships we develop with not only customers but also suppliers will in many cases determine the degree of success of the relationship. A successful partnership provides an opportunity for shared risk while maximizing the opportunity for mutual success whether it's with supplier. To follow this paper show how SLV(Supplier Lifetime Value) can be used to structure the supplier in automotive part manufacturer, This method of selection is described, and a detailed example of how SLY can be used and allocation of order quantity for the selected suppliers also are provided.

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Design Strength of Bridge Piers against Ship Collision (교각의 선박충돌 설계강도)

  • Lee Seong-Lo;Bae Yong-Gwi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.659-662
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    • 2004
  • An analysis of the AF is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. From this analysis, the impact lateral resistance can be determined for each pier. The bridge pier impact resistance is selected using a probability-based analysis procedure in which the predicted AF, from the ship collision risk assessment is compared to an acceptance criterion. In this study, the acceptance criterion is allocated to each pier using allocation weights based on the previous predictions. To determine the design impact lateral resistance of bridge components such pylon and pier, the numerical analysis is performed iteratively with the analysis variable of impact resistance ratio of pylon to pier. The design impact lateral resistance can vary greatly among the components of the same bridge, depending upon the waterway geometry, available water depth, bridge geometry, and vessel traffic characteristics.

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A Study on Portfolio Asset Allocation Using Actor-Critic Model (Actor-Critic 모델을 이용한 포트폴리오 자산 배분에 관한 연구)

  • Kalina, Bayartsetseg;Lee, Ju-Hong;Song, Jae-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2020.05a
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    • pp.439-441
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    • 2020
  • 기존의 균등배분, 마코위츠, Recurrent Reinforcement Learning 방법들은 수익들을 최대화하거나 위험을 최소화하고, Risk Budgeting 방법은 각 자산에 목표 리스크를 배분하여 최적의 포트폴리오를 찾는다. 그러나 이 방법들은 미래의 최적화된 포트폴리오를 잘 찾아주지 못하는 문제점들이 있다. 본 논문은 자산 배분을 위한 Deterministic Policy Gradient 기반의 Actor Critic 모델을 개발하였고, 기존의 방법들보다 성능이 우수함을 검증한다.