• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.407-420
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• 1998

This paper is concerned with selecting covariates to be included in building linear random effects models designed to analyze clustered response normal data. It is based on a Bayesian approach, intended to propose and develop a procedure that uses probabilistic considerations for selecting premising subsets of covariates. The approach reformulates the linear random effects model in a hierarchical normal and point mass mixture model by introducing a set of latent variables that will be used to identify subset choices. The hierarchical model is flexible to easily accommodate sign constraints in the number of regression coefficients. Utilizing Gibbs sampler, the appropriate posterior probability of each subset of covariates is obtained. Thus, In this procedure, the most promising subset of covariates can be identified as that with highest posterior probability. The procedure is illustrated through a simulation study.

• 소음진동
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• 제6권6호
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• pp.735-747
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• 1996

In this paper, buckling reliability analyses of stiffened cylinder with random initial geometric imperfection under axial impact load are performed by the combined response surface method. The effect of random geometric imperfection on the failure probability and reliability is recognized quantitatively. Buckling reliability decreases with the increase of mean value, cov of initial geometric imperfection under the same external load. Buckling probability under impact load is greater than those under static load with the same condition. From the probabilistic characteristics of imapct buckling load, relation between reliability index and safety parameter can be obtained in addition to the relation between load and reliability index. And those results can be used to determine the range of required safety parameter and acceptable imperfaction.

• 말소리와 음성과학
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.91-98
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• 2013

This paper investigated Korean prosody as it relates to graded internal structure in an identification function. Within Korean prosody, variants regarded as dialectal variations can appear as different prosodic scales, which contain the range of within-category variations. The current experiment was intended to show how the prosodic scale corresponding to the range of within-category differences relates to f0 contours for speakers of two Korean dialects, North Kyungsang and South Cholla. In an identification task, participants responded by selecting an item from two answer choices. The probability of choosing the correct response from the two choices was computed by a logistic regression analysis using intercepts and slopes. That is, the correct response between two choices was used to show a linear line with an s-shape presentation. In this paper, to investigate the graded internal structure of labeling, 25%, 50%, and 75% of predicted probability were assessed. Listeners from North Kyungsang showed progressive variations, whereas listeners from South Cholla revealed random patterns in the internal structure of the identification function. In this paper, the results were plotted using scatterplot graphs, applying the range of within-category variation and predicted probability obtained from the logistic regression analyses. The scatterplot graphs showed the different degree of the responses for f0 scales (i.e., variations within categories). The results demonstrate that the gradient structures of native pitch accent users become more progressive in response to f0 scales.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.519-526
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• 2020

Non-stationary random seismic response and reliability of multi-degree of freedom hysteretic structure system are studied based on the cumulative damage failure mechanism. First, dynamic Eqs. of multi-degree of freedom hysteretic structure system under earthquake action are established. Secondly, the random seismic response of a multi-degree freedom hysteretic structure system is investigated by the combination of virtual excitation and precise integration. Finally, according to the damage state level of structural, the different damage state probability of high-rise frame structure is calculated based on the boundary value of the cumulative damage index in the seismic intensity earthquake area. The results show that under the same earthquake intensity and the same floor quality and stiffness, the lower the floor is, the greater the damage probability of the building structure is; if the structural floor stiffness changes abruptly, the weak layer will be formed, and the cumulative damage probability will be the largest, and the reliability index will be relatively small. Meanwhile, with the increase of fortification intensity, the reliability of three-level structure fortification is also significantly reduced. This method can solve the problem of non-stationary random seismic response and reliability of high-rise buildings, and it has high efficiency and practicability. It is instructive for structural performance design and estimating the age of the structure.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.19-26
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• 2012

RFID 시스템에서 중계 공격에 저항하기 위해 리더와 태그 간의 시도와 응답에 소요된 1비트의 왕복 여행시간 측정을 이용한 거리 한정 프로토콜이 주로 사용된다. 이러한 프로토콜에서 1비트 시도와 응답에 대한 중계 공격의 성공확률을 줄일 수 있으면 효율적인 거리 한정 프로토콜을 만들 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 Hancke와 Khun이 제안한 1비트 시도와 응답 기반의 RFID 거리 한정 프로토콜을 2비트 시도와 응답 기반으로 수정한 효율적인 RFID 거리 한정 프로토콜을 제안한다. n번의 시도와 응답에 대한 중계 공격의 성공확률이 제안된 프로토콜에서는 (7/16)n으로 (3/4)n인 Hancke와 Khun의 프로토콜보다 훨씬 낮다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2007

A three-state Markov logistic regression model is suggested to forecast the probability of tomorrow's precipitation based on the current meteorological situation. The suggested model turns out to be better than Markov regression model in the sense of the mean squared error of forecasting for the rainfall data of Seoul area.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.373-386
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• 2008

In this study stochastic analysis of non-linear dynamical systems under ${\alpha}$-stable, multiplicative white noise has been conducted. The analysis has dealt with a special class of ${\alpha}$-stable stochastic processes namely sub-Gaussian white noises. In this setting the governing equation either of the probability density function or of the characteristic function of the dynamical response may be obtained considering the dynamical system forced by a Gaussian white noise with an uncertain factor with ${\alpha}/2$- stable distribution. This consideration yields the probability density function or the characteristic function of the response by means of a simple integral involving the probability density function of the system under Gaussian white noise and the probability density function of the ${\alpha}/2$-stable random parameter. Some numerical applications have been reported assessing the reliability of the proposed formulation. Moreover a proper way to perform digital simulation of the sub-Gaussian ${\alpha}$-stable random process preventing dynamical systems from numerical overflows has been reported and discussed in detail.

• 말소리와 음성과학
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.63-68
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• 2010

A new version of sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) which has been investigated in utterance-length control is proposed to obtain uniform response results in speaker verification (SV). Although SPRTs can obtain fast responses in SV tests, differences in the performance may occur depending on the compositions of consonants and vowels in the sentences used. In this paper, a fast sequential probability ratio test (FSPRT) method that shows consistent performances at all times regardless of the compositions of vocalized sentences for SV will be proposed. In generating frames, the FSPRT will first conduct SV test processes with only generated frames without any overlapping and if the results do not satisfy discrimination criteria, the FSPRT will sequentially use frames applied with overlapping. With the progress of processes as such, the test will not be affected by the compositions of sentences for SV and thus fast response outcomes and even consistent performances can be obtained. Experimental results show that the FSPRT has better performance to the SPRT method while requiring less complexity with equal error rates (EER).

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제48권4호
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• pp.597-608
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present a probability distribution of the burst pressure of API 5L X65 pipes for the reliability assessment of corroded gas pipelines. Methods: Corrosion is a major cause of weakening the residual strength of the pipe. The mean residual strength on the corrosion defect can be obtained using the burst pressure code. However, in order to obtain the pipe reliability, a probability distribution of the burst pressure should be provided. This study is concerned with estimating the burst pressure distribution using Monte Carlo simulation. A response surface method is employed to represent the distribution parameter as a model of the corrosion defect size. Results: The experimental results suggest that the normal or Weibull distribution should be suitable as the probability distribution of the burst pressure. In particular, it was shown that the probability distribution parameters can be well predicted by using the depth and length of the corrosion defect. Conclusion: Given a corrosion defect on the pipe, its corresponding burst pressure distribution can be provided at instant. Subsequently, a reliability assessment of the pipe is conducted as well.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.95-107
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• 2022

This paper introduces a novel, rigorous, and efficient probabilistic methodology for the performance-based optimal design (PBOD) of semi-active tuned mass damper (SATMD) for seismically excited nonlinear structures. The proposed methodology is consistent with the modern performance-based earthquake engineering framework and aims to design reliable control systems. To this end, an optimization problem has been defined which considers the parameters of control systems as design variables and minimization of the probability of exceeding a targeted structural performance level during the lifetime as an objective function with a constraint on the failure probability of stroke length damage state associated with mass damper mechanism. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a numerical example of performance analysis of an eight-story nonlinear shear building frame with hysteretic bilinear behavior. The SATMD with variable stiffness and damping have been designed separately with different mass ratios. Their performance has been compared with that of uncontrolled structure and the structure controlled with passive TMD in terms of probabilistic demand curves, response hazard curves, fragility curves, and exceedance probability of performance levels during the lifetime. Numerical results show the effectiveness, simplicity, and reliability of the proposed PBOD method in designing SATMD with variable stiffness and damping for the nonlinear frames where they have reduced the exceedance probability of the structure up to 49% and 44%, respectively.