• Title/Summary/Keyword: Reproduction number

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Estimation of Reproduction Number for COVID-19 in Korea (국내 코로나바이러스감염증-19의 감염재생산수 추정)

  • Jeong, Jaewoong;Kwon, Hyuck Moo;Hong, Sung Hoon;Lee, Min Koo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.493-510
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: As of July 31, there were 14,336 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea, including 301 deaths. Since the daily confirmed number of cases hit 909 on February 29, the spread of the disease had gradually decreased due to the active implementation of preventive control interventions, and the daily confirmed number had finally recorded a single digit on April 19. Since May, however, the disease has re-emerged and retaining after June. In order to eradicate the disease, it is necessary to suggest suitable forward preventive strategies by predicting future infectivity of the disease based on the cases so far. Therefore, in this study, we aim to evaluate the transmission potential of the disease in early phases by estimating basic reproduction number and assess the preventive control measures through effective reproduction number. Methods: We used publicly available cases and deaths data regarding COVID-19 in South Korea as of July 31. Using ensemble model integrated stochastic linear birth model and deterministic linear growth model, the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number were estimated. Results: Estimated basic reproduction number is 3.1 (95% CI: 3.0-3.2). Effective reproduction number was the highest with 7 on February 15, decreased as of April 20. Since then, the value is gradually increased to more than unity. Conclusion: Preventive policy such as wearing a mask and physical distancing campaigns in the early phase of the outbreak was fairly implemented. However, the infection potential increased due to weakening government policy on May 6. Our results suggest that it seems necessary to implement a stronger policy than the current level.

Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number

  • Lim, Jun-Sik;Cho, Sung-il;Ryu, Sukhyun;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.405-408
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    • 2020
  • In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R0 was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R0 has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R0 and the effective reproduction number (Rt). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R0 should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for Rt due to the incubation period of the disease.

Characterization of clutch traits and egg production in six chicken breeds

  • Lei Shi;Yunlei Li;Adam Mani Isa;Hui Ma;Jingwei Yuan;Panlin Wang;Pingzhuang Ge;Yanzhang Gong;Jilan Chen;Yanyan Sun
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.899-907
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    • 2023
  • Objective: The better understanding of laying pattern of birds is crucial for developing breed-specific proper breeding scheme and management. Methods: Daily egg production until 50 wk of age of six chicken breeds including one layer (White Leghorn, WL), three dual-purpose (Rhode Island Red, RIR; Columbian Plymouth Rock, CR; and Barred Plymouth Rock, BR), one synthetic dwarf (DY), and one indigenous (Beijing-You Chicken, BYC) were used to characterize their clutch traits and egg production. The age at first egg, egg number, average and maximum clutch length, pause length, and number of clutches and pauses were calculated accordingly. Results: The egg number and average clutch length in WL, RIR, CR, and BR were higher than those in DY and BYC (p<0.01). The numbers of clutches and pauses, and pause length in WL, RIR, CR, and BR were lower than those in DY and BYC (p<0.01). The coefficient variations of clutch length in WL, RIR, CR, and BR (57.66%, 66.49%, 64.22%, and 55.35%, respectively) were higher than DY (41.84%) and BYC (36.29%), while the coefficient variations of egg number in WL, RIR, CR, and BR (9.10%, 9.97%, 10.82%, and 9.92%) were lower than DY (15.84%) and BYC (16.85%). The clutch length was positively correlated with egg number (r = 0.51 to 0.66; p<0.01), but not correlated with age at first egg in all breeds. Conclusion: The six breeds showed significant different clutch and egg production traits. Due to the selection history, the high and median productive layer breeds had higher clutch length than those of the less productive indigenous BYC. The clutch length is a proper selection criterion for further progress in egg production. The age at first egg, which is independent of clutch traits, is especially encouraged to be improved by selection in the BYC breed.

Estimation of the Cumulative Power of Discrimination in Haimen Chicken Populations with Ten Microsatellite Markers

  • Olowofeso, O.;Wang, J.Y.;Shen, J.C.;Chen, K.W.;Sheng, H.W.;Zhang, P.;Wu, R.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.1066-1070
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    • 2005
  • To estimate the cumulative power of discrimination (CPD) existing within Haimen chicken populations in China, we isolated a total of 252 genomic DNAs from four chicken populations (Rugao, Jiangchun, Wan-Nan and Cshiqishi) through a saturated salt procedure. All the genomic DNAs were used in a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with ten microsatellite markers. Amplified PCR-products with the selected markers were separated on a 12% polyacrylamide gel with pBR322DNA/MspI used as internal standard marker. Genetic diversity indices including mean allele number among loci, unbiased heterozygosity ($h_i$) within locus, effective number of alleles ($N_e$) and polymorphism information content (PIC) as well as the unbiased average heterozygosity (H) among loci in the populations were calculated using the generated allele frequencies by each marker. The mean allele number for all loci ranged between 4.00${\pm}$0.33 (Rugao) to 4.90${\pm}$0.48 (Cshiqishi) and across populations for all loci was 4.60${\pm}$0.20, while (H) ranged from 0.65${\pm}$0.03 (Rugao) to 0.69${\pm}$0.03 (Jiangchun) among loci and across populations, (H) was 0.67${\pm}$0.01. The generated unbiased average heterozygosity among loci in each population was integrated to the global formula of CPD and the result demonstrated that the CPD within the four Haimen chicken populations was 98.75%.

Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

  • Alimohamadi, Yousef;Taghdir, Maryam;Sepandi, Mojtaba
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak. Methods: International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: "COVID-19" and "basic reproduction number" or "R0." The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study. Results: The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81). Conclusions: Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.

Studies on Semen Quality of Boar (돼지의 정액성상에 관한 연구)

  • 문승주;임계택
    • Korean Journal of Animal Reproduction
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.141-146
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    • 1990
  • 12 crossbreed boars received 4 rations containing varying levels of lysine and DL-methionine. The results obtained from this study are summarized as follows ; 1. Semen volume, total sperm number of the treatment B, C and D were increased significantly (p<0.05) as compared with the treatment A but abnormal sperm percent of treatment B and C was decreased significantly (p<0.05) as compared with A. Sperm number and sperm mortility were not different from treatments. 2. Amino acids contents of sperm plasma were not different from treatments.

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TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION MODEL WITH CASE DETECTION AND TREATMENT

  • Bhunu, C.P.;Mushayabasa, S.;Magombedze, G.;Roeger, L.I.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.29 no.3_4
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    • pp.529-546
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    • 2011
  • A deterministic tuberculosis model for theoretically assessing the potential impact of the combined effects of case detection in the presence of treatment is formulated. The qualitative features of its equilibria are analyzed and it is found that the disease-free equilibrium may not be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. This disease threshold number is further used to assess the impact of active TB case finding alone and in conjunction with treatment. A critical threshold parameter ${\Theta}$ say for which case detection will have a positive impact is derived. Using the Centre Manifold theory, the model may exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (coexistence of a locally stable endemic equilibrium with a stable disease-free equilibrium) when the reproduction number is less than unity. It is shown that the possibility of backward bifurcation occurring decreases with increase case detection. Graphical representations suggest that increase in case finding accompanied by treatment of detected TB cases, result in a marked decrease of TB cases (both latent and active TB).

A STUDY ON THE VOID FORMATION AND DETAIL REPRODUCTION ACCORDING TO THE VARIOUS IMPRESSION MATERIALS AND MIXING METHODS (수종 인상재의 혼합방법에 따른 기포형성과 표면 재현력에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Hyeong-Seon;Lim, Heon-Song;Lim, Ju-Hwan;Cho, In-Ho
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.140-155
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    • 2002
  • Void-free impression taking is important for the fabrication of accurate dental restorations. One of the essential properties of an impression material used for indirect fabrication of precision castings is the reproduction of the fine detail. The objective in this study was to determine the influence of mixing methods on the number of voids and surface detail reproduction. The number of voids and surface detail reproduction were evaluated with the steteomicroscope $SZ-PT^{(R)}$ and photographed. The results were as follows ; 1. In comparison of the void formation according to mixing methods of all impression materials, mechanical mixing was better than hand mixing and there was significant difference(p<0.05) 2. In comparison of the void formation according to hand mixing of alginate impression materials($TOKUSO\;A-1{\alpha}^{(R)},\;CAVEX\;IMPRESSIONAL^{(R)},\;AROMA \;FINE\;DF\;III^{(R)}$), there was no significant difference among alginate groups. But the number of void was increased in the order of $Panasil^{(R)}\;contact,\;TOKUSO\;A-1{\alpha}^{(R)},\;Permlastic^{(R)}$ light bodied and there was significant difference (p<0.05). 3. In comparison of the void formation according to mechanical mixing of alginate impression materials($TOKUSO\;A-1{\alpha}^{(R)},\;CAVEX\;IMPRESSIONAL^{(R)},\;AROMA FINE\;DF\;III^{(R)}$), there was no significant different among alginate groups. But the number of void was decreased in order of $TOKUSO\;A-1{\alpha}^{(R)},\;Permlastic^{(R)}light\;bodied,\;Panasil^{(R)}$ contact and there was significant difference (p<0.05). 4. In comparison of the surface detail reproduction according to mixing methods of 3 types of impression materials($TOKUSO\;A-1{\alpha}^{(R)},\;Permlastic^{(R)}\;light\;bodied,\;Panasil^{(R)}\;contact$), there was no significant difference between hand mixing and mechanical mixing method 5. The surface detail reproduction was only influenced by impression materials, and produced better in order of $TOKUSO\;A-1{\alpha}^{(R)},\;Panasil^{(R)}\;contact,\;Permlastic^{(R)}$ light bodied. There was significat difference among 3 type of impression materials(p<0.05). From the above results, void formation is influenced by mixing methods and surface detail reproduction is influenced by impression materials than mixing methods. Therefore, to fabricate accurate restorations, proper impression material and mechanical mixing method are more effective and available clinically.

Effect of nutrient and moisture on the growth and reproduction of Epilobium hirsutum L., an endangered plant

  • Lee, Eung-Pill;Han, Young-Sub;Lee, Soo-In;Cho, Kyu-Tae;Park, Jae-Hoon;You, Young-Han
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.281-289
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    • 2017
  • Background: In this study, the growth and reproductive response of seedlings, grown in plastic pots with sand, to moisture and nutrients were analyzed in order to study the environmental conditions required to create an alternative habitat for Epilobium hirsutum L., an endangered plant. Results: Vegetative and reproductive growths of Epilobium hirsutum L. are accelerated with increase in moisture and organic matter content in the soil. Among vegetative organs, the number of runners related to asexual reproduction was the highest when the moisture content was over 25% and nutrient content between 7 and 14% in the soil. But the number of flowers related to flowering responses, among reproductive organs, was the highest when the moisture content was maintained at 75% and when nutrient content was 21% in the soil. The number of seeds, related to sexual reproduction, was the highest when the moisture content was over 25% and nutrient content between 14 and 21%. Conclusions: The study results show that a place with high moisture and nutrient content in the soil is advantageous to asexual and sexual reproduction of Epilobium hirsutum L. Therefore, we must serve periodically nutrient and seeds to sustain population in in situ conservation. Furthermore, it is advisable to create in riverside where abundant nutrient content have, making alternative habitat of Epilobium hirsutum L. Also, we must find species that have high contribution degree index through vegetation survey.

Reproduction of vibration patterns of elastic structures by block-wise modal expansion method (BMEM)

  • Jung, B.K.;Cho, J.R.;Jeong, W.B.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.819-837
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    • 2016
  • The quality of vibration pattern reproduction of elastic structures by the modal expansion method is influenced by the modal expansion method and the sensor placement as well as the accuracy of measured natural modes and the total number of vibration sensors. In this context, this paper presents an improved numerical method for reproducing the vibration patterns by introducing a block-wise modal expansion method (BMEM), together with the genetic algorithm (GA). For a given number of vibration sensors, the sensor positions are determined by an evolutionary optimization using GA and the modal assurance criterion (MAC). Meanwhile, for the proposed block-wise modal expansion, a whole frequency range of interest is divided into several overlapped frequency blocks and the vibration field reproduction is made block by block with different natural modes and different modal participation factors. A hollow cylindrical tank is taken to illustrate the proposed improved modal expansion method. Through the numerical experiments, the proposed method is compared with several conventional methods to justify that the proposed method provides the improved results.