Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health

The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine (대한예방의학회)
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Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

  • Alimohamadi, Yousef (Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center, Pars Hospital, Iran University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Taghdir, Maryam (Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Sepandi, Mojtaba (Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences)
  • Received : 2020.03.11
  • Accepted : 2020.03.20
  • Published : 2020.05.29
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Abstract

Objectives: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak. Methods: International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: "COVID-19" and "basic reproduction number" or "R0." The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study. Results: The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81). Conclusions: Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.

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References

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