[KSCI] Korea Science Citation Index Service

http://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.076

Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Alimohamadi, Yousef (Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center, Pars Hospital, Iran University of Medical Sciences)
Taghdir, Maryam (Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences)
Sepandi, Mojtaba (Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences)

Publication Information

Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health / v.53, no.3, 2020 , pp. 151-157 More about this Journal

Abstract

Objectives: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R₀) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R₀ for COVID-19 in the current outbreak. Methods: International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R₀ of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: "COVID-19" and "basic reproduction number" or "R₀." The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I² index, the Cochran Q test, and T². A random-effects model was used to estimate R₀ in this study. Results: The mean reported R₀ in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R₀ for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R₀ did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81). Conclusions: Considering the estimated R₀ for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R₀ was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.

Keywords

Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Meta-analysis; Public health; Outbreak;

Citations & Related Records

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