• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.207-217
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• 2005

Line capacity calculation has been used to determine optimum efficiency and safe train service for train scheduling plan and investment priority order throughout detecting bottleneck section. Because of some problems of Yamagisi and UIC methods for line capacity calculation, developing of the method of line capacity caculation and evaluation for the Korea circumstance is important. This paper deals with the reliability improvement on the integrated system of TPS(Train Performance Simulator), PES(Parameter Evaluation Simulator), LCS(Line Capacity Simulator) and simulation and sensitivity analysis for line capacity.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.33-38
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• 2009

When we estimate the parameters of software reliability models, we usually use maximum liklihood estimator(MLE). But this method is required a large data set. In particular, when we want to estimate it with small observed data such as early stages of testing, we give rise to the non-existence of MLE. Therefore, it is interesting to look into the influence of parameter estimators obtained using MLE. In this paper, we use two non-homogenous poisson process software reliability growth model: delayed S-shaped model and log power model. In this paper, we calculate the sensitivity of estimators about failure intensity function for two SRGMs respectively.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.183-187
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• 2002

The efficient and rational transmission tariff structure is one of the crucial factors in creation of fair and competitive electricity markets. Transmission charge can be largely categorized into the line usage charge, system reliability charge, access charge and others. Any transmission tariff should be able to reflect these cost components reasonably. This paper suggests an approach amenable to allocating the transmission reliability costs reasonably with reflection of line sensitivity and line outage rate.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.72 no.2
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• pp.203-216
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• 2019

Reliability analysis of composite structures considering random variation of involved parameters is quite important as composite materials revealed large statistical variations in their mechanical properties. The reliability analysis of such structures by the first order reliability method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) based approach involves repetitive evaluations of performance function. The response surface method (RSM) based metamodeling technique has emerged as an effective solution to such problems. In the application of metamodeling for uncertainty quantification and reliability analysis of composite structures; the finite element model is usually formulated by either classical laminate theory or first order shear deformation theory. But such theories show significant error in calculating the structural responses of composite structures. The present study attempted to apply the RSM based MCS for reliability analysis of composite shell structures where the surrogate model is constructed using higher order shear deformation theory (HSDT) of composite structures considering the uncertainties in the material properties, load, ply thickness and radius of curvature of the shell structure. The sensitivity of responses of the shell is also obtained by RSM and finite element method based direct approach to elucidate the advantages of RSM for response sensitivity analysis. The reliability results obtained by the proposed RSM based MCS and FORM are compared with the accurate reliability analysis results obtained by the direct MCS by considering two numerical examples.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.3-16
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• 1999

This paper presents the results of sensitivity analysis based on an example study to verify a newly developed reliability-based model for rock slopes considering uncertainties of discontinuities and failure modes-plane, wedge, and toppling. The parameters that are needed for sensitivity analysis are the variability of discontinuity properties (orientation and strength of discontinuities), the loading conditions, and the rock slope geometry. The variability in orientation and friction angle of discontinuities, which can not be considered in the deterministic analysis, has a great influence on the rock slope stability, The stability of rock slopes including failure modes is more influenced by the selection of dip direction of cutting rock face than any other design variables, The example study shows that the developed reliability-based analysis model can reasonably assess the stability of rock slope.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.1682-1685
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• 2005

System algorithms estimated by deterministic input may occur the error between predicted and actual output. Especially, actual system can't predict the exact outputs due to uncertainty and tolerance of input parameters. A single output to a set of inputs has a limited value without the variation. Hence, we should consider various scatters caused by the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analysis and manufacturing methods in order to perform the robust design or estimate the reliability of structure. The system design with uncertainty should perform the probabilistic structural optimization with the statistical response and the reliability. This method calculated the probability distributions of the characteristics such as stress by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and Monte-Carlo Method and got the probabilistic sensitivity. The sensitivity of structural response with respect to inconstant design variables was estimated by fracture probability. Therefore, this paper proposed the probabilistic reliability design method for fracture of uncorved freight end beam and the design criteria by fracture probability.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.43-48
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• 2009

The purpose of the this paper is to make decision of the maintenance priority of power distribution system using Time-Varying Failure Rate(TVFR) with interruption cost. This paper emphasizes the practical use of the reliability indices and interruption cost. To make a decision of maintenance priority on power distribution system equipment, the quantification of the reliability level should be represented as a cost. In this paper, the TVFR of power distribution system equipment applied in this paper utilizes analytic method to use the historical data of KEPCO. From this result, the sensitivity analysis on TVFR of equipment was done for the priority, which represents that high priority of the equipment has more effect on system reliability, such as SAIDI or SAIFI, than other equipment. By this priority, the investment plan is established. In this result, customer interruption cost(CIC) could be extracted, and CIC is used as weighting factor to consider a importance of customer. After that, the result calculated the proposal method in this paper is compared with other priority method, such as lifetime, failure rate or only sensitivity.

• International Journal of Railway
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.5-9
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• 2015

Reliability based limit state design method is replacing traditional deterministic designs such as allowable stress design and/or ultimate strength design methods in world trends. European design code(Eurocode) has adopted limit state design, and Korea road bridge design standard has also recently been transferred to limit state design method. In this trend, Korea railroad design standard is also preparing for adopting the same design concept. While safety factors are determined empirically in traditional design, load combinations as well as load factors are determined by solving limit state equations. General partial safety factors are evaluated by using AFORM(Advanced First Order Reliability Method) in the reliability based limit state design method. In this study sensitivity analysis is carried out for a dead load factor and a live load factor. Relative precisions of the dead load and the live load factors are discussed prior to the AFORM analysis. Furthermore the sectional forces of design and the material quantities required by two different design methods are compared for a PSC box girder railway bridge.

• Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.79-92
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• 2014

This study is aimed at minimizing the errors in using a sensitivity evaluation model that could occur when sensitivity analysis method is actively used for design evaluation. To extract words of a contrantion-type model by product, interior space, and streetscape design, primary word refinement was conducted with the words extracted from preceding studies. The analysis revealed that 19 words were used in all three fields. A reliability analysis revealed that different words had a bad impact on the reliability in each field. The applicability was reviewed through reliability analysis of EPA model as contraction-type and PAD model as inference-type. The results are as follows. Although the reliability of the contrantion-type model was higher than that of inference-type model in all three fields, the differences in Cronbach's Alpha were small. Also, When the reliability was analyzed after deleting the words that had a bad impact on reliability, the differences in the reliability's coefficients were clearly significant. Therefore, it is necessary to select words suitable for sensitivity evaluation target and objectivity of the evaluation can be boosted by using a proper model. Analysis of the sensitivity evaluation model suitable for future environmental evaluation should be analyzed with various statistical methods, beyond verification of reliability.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.93-100
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• 2012

In this paper, the deterministic optimal design for the tail plane made of composite materials is conducted under the deterministic loading condition and compared with that of the metallic materials. Next, the reliability analysis with five random variables such as loading and material properties of unidirectional prepreg is conducted to examine the probability of failure for the deterministic optimal design results. The MATLAB programing is used for reliability analysis combined with FEA S/W(COMSOL) for structural analysis. The laminated composite is assumed to the equivalent orthotropic material using classical laminated plate theory. The response surface methodology and importance sampling technique are adopted to reduce computational cost with satisfying the accuracy in reliability analysis. As a result, structural weight of composite materials is lighter than that of metals in deterministic optimal design. However, the probability of failure for the deterministic optimal design of the tail plane structures is too high to be neglected. The sensitivity of each variable is also estimated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis to figure out which variables are sensitive to failure. The computational cost is considerably reduced when response surface methodology and importance sampling technique are used. The study of the computationally inexpensive method for reliability-based design optimization will be necessary in further work.