• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제30권9호
• /
• pp.1116-1123
• /
• 2006

In this study, the effective method for reliability estimation is proposed using tow-staged kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. Kriging metamodel can be determined by appropriate sampling range and the number of sampling points. The first kriging metamodel is made based on the proposed sampling points. The advanced f'=rst order reliability method is applied to the first kriging metamodel to determine the reliability and most probable failure point(MPFP) approximately. Then, the second kriging metamodel is constructed using additional sampling points near the MPFP. These points are selected using genetic algorithm that have the maximum mean squared error. The Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to the second kriging metamodel to estimate the reliability. The proposed method is applied to numerical examples and the results are almost equal to the reference reliability.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제14권5호
• /
• pp.847-867
• /
• 2014

There are continuous efforts to mitigate structural losses from earthquakes and manage risk through seismic risk assessment; seismic fragility curves are widely accepted as an essential tool of such efforts. Seismic fragility curves can be classified into four groups based on how they are derived: empirical, judgmental, analytical, and hybrid. Analytical fragility curves are the most widely used and can be further categorized into two subgroups, depending on whether an analytical function or simulation method is used. Although both methods have shown decent performances for many seismic fragility problems, they often oversimplify the given problems in reliability or structural analyses owing to their built-in assumptions. In this paper, a new method is proposed for the development of seismic fragility curves. Integration with sophisticated software packages for reliability analysis (FERUM) and structural analysis (ZEUS-NL) allows the new method to obtain more accurate seismic fragility curves for less computational cost. Because the proposed method performs reliability analysis using the first-order reliability method, it provides component probabilities as well as useful byproducts and allows further fragility analysis at the system level. The new method was applied to a numerical example of a 2D frame structure, and the results were compared with those by Monte Carlo simulation. The method was found to generate seismic fragility curves more accurately and efficiently. Also, the effect of system reliability analysis on the development of seismic fragility curves was investigated using the given numerical example and its necessity was discussed.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제52권7호
• /
• pp.1462-1470
• /
• 2020

Reliability in safety-critical systems and equipment is of vital importance, so the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been widely used for many years in the nuclear industry to address reliability in a quantitative manner. As many nuclear power plants (NPPs) become digitalized, evaluating the reliability of safety-critical software has become an emerging issue. Due to a lack of available methods, in many conventional PSA models only hardware reliability is addressed with the assumption that software reliability is perfect or very high compared to hardware reliability. This study focused on developing a new method of safety-critical software reliability quantification, derived from hardware-software integrated environment testing. Since the complexity of hardware and software interaction makes the possible number of test cases for exhaustive testing well beyond a practically achievable range, an importance-oriented testing method that assures the most efficient test coverage was developed. Application to the test of an actual NPP reactor protection system demonstrated the applicability of the developed method and provided insight into complex software-based system reliability.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
• /
• 제11권4호
• /
• pp.399-407
• /
• 2011

Reliability evaluation of One-Shot system which flies at speed of Mach must be evaluated as the result of many firing tests. But many firing tests are impossible because of budget deficit. Consequently the reliability prediction which substitutes firing tests is used. The accuracy of reliability prediction is decided according to a quantity of accumulated test data. If the test data is insufficient, the direction of prediction can not be set. So we propose the reliability prediction method which applies MIL-HDBK-217 Plus. MIL-HDBK-217 Plus is described about reliability prediction method without sufficient test data. So we apply MIL-HDBK-217 Plus to the rocket motor system, and we accomplish a modeling and a reliability prediction about the system.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
• /
• 제16권1호
• /
• pp.32-40
• /
• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of sampling points on accuracy of storage reliability estimation for one-shot systems by assuming a weibull distribution as a storage reliability distribution. Also propose method for determining of sampling points for increase the accuracy of reliability estimation. Methods: Weibull distribution was divided into three sections for confirming the possible to estimate the parameters of the weibull distribution only some section's sample. Generate quantal response data for failure data. And performed parameter estimation with quantal response data. Results: If reduce sample point interval of 1 section, increase the accuracy of reliability estimation although sampling only section 1. Even reduce total number of sampling point, reducing sampling time interval of the 1 zone improve the accuracy of reliability estimation. Conclusion: Method to increase the accuracy of reliability estimation is increasing number of sampling and the sampling points. But apply this method to One-shot system is difficult because test cost of one-shot system is expensive. So propose method of accuracy of storage reliability estimation of one-shot system by adjustment of the sampling point. And by dividing the section it could reduce the total sampling point.

• 한국안전학회지
• /
• 제32권3호
• /
• pp.54-59
• /
• 2017

This paper presents an efficient finite analysis model and a simulation-based reliability analysis method for stowage device system failure of a container crane with respect to lateral load. A quasi-static analysis model is introduced to simulate the nonlinear resistance characteristics and failure of tie-down and stowage pin, which are the main structural stowage devices of a crane. As a reliability analysis method, a subset simulation method is applied considering the uncertainties of later load and mechanical characteristic parameters of stowage devices. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to sample random variables. Analysis result shows that the proposed model is able to estimate the probability of failure of crane system effectively which cannot be calculated practically by crude Monte Carlo simulation method.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.121-132
• /
• 2009

A systematic reliability evaluation approach for torsional divergence analysis of long span suspension bridges is proposed, consisting of the first order reliability method and a simplified torsional divergence analysis method. The proposed method was implemented in the deterministic torsional divergence analysis program SIMTDB through a new strategy involving interfacing the proposed method with SIMTDB via a freely available MATLAB software tool (FERUM). A numerical example involving a detailed computational model of a long span suspension bridge with a main span of 888 m is presented to demonstrate the applicability and merits of the proposed method and the associated software strategy. Finally, the most influential random variables on the reliability of long span suspension bridges against torsional divergence failure are identified by a sensitivity analysis.

• 대한전자공학회논문지
• /
• 제13권6호
• /
• pp.20-23
• /
• 1976

본논문에서는 통신회로망의 신뢰도를 계산하는데 부울대수를 이용하는 방법을 제시하였다. 한 회로의 두 접합점사이의 모든 단순통로가 주어지면 병렬연산이라고 명명되는 부울대수산법에 의하여 두 단점사이의 신뢰도가 기호적으로 계산된다. 이 방법은 회로가 방향성이거나 비방향성이거나 다 효과적이다. A boolean algebra method for computing the reliability in a communication network is prosented. Given the set of all simple paths between two nodes in a network, the terminal reliability can be symbolically computed by the Boolean operation which is named parallel operation. The method seems to be promising for both oriented and nonoriented network.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
• /
• pp.1016-1021
• /
• 2008

In this study, effective methods for reliability estimation and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) are proposed using kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In our previous study, we proposed the accurate method for reliability estimation using two-staged kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In this study, the possibility of applying the previously proposed method to RBDO is examined. The accuracy of that method is much improved than the first order reliability method with similar efficiency. Finally, the effective method for RBDO is proposed and applied to numerical examples. The results are compared to the existing RBDO methods and shown to be very effective and accurate.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제54권11호
• /
• pp.518-524
• /
• 2005

This paper presents an analytical method for the reliability evaluation of distribution system, including the distributed generations. Unlike the large sized generations of transmission system, the distributed generations have complexities in analyzing and determining the operation. In the process of evaluate reliability, it can be shown that the analytical method is simpler than the Monte-Carlo simulation and the method using Load Duration Curve model is more accurate than that using peak load model. The modeling of distributed generation to analysis distribution system reliability using LDC is proposed in this Paper, and is compared with the MCS method as a result of case studies.