• 한국안전학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.161-166
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• 2000

Regulators often specify default values that are considered acceptable for use in risk analyses as input to regulatory decisions. Because both performing and validating a detailed risk analysis of a complex system are costly and time-consuming undertakings, the use of default values can greatly facilitate the process of performing a risk analysis in the first place as well as the process of reviewing and verifying the risk analysis. It may also ensure more uniform in quality of risk analyses. However, different regulatory agencies differ in their approaches to the use of default values, and the implications of these differences are not yet widely understood. Moreover, large heterogeneity among licensees makes it difficult to set suitable defaults. This paper focuses on the effect of default values on estimates of risk. Some insights on the effects of different levels of conservatism in setting defaults will be provided. The results can help decision makers evaluate the levels of safety likely to result from their regulatory policies.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권7호
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• pp.1099-1105
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• 2018

How to choose defaults in risk-informed regulations depends on the conservatism implicated in regulatory defaults. Without a universal agreement on the approaches dealing with the conservatism of defaults, however, the desirability of conservatism in regulatory risk analyses has long been controversial. The opponent views it as needlessly costly and irrational, and the proponent as a form of protection against possible omissions or underestimation of risks. Moreover, the inherent ambiguity of risk makes it difficult to set suitable defaults in terms of risk. This paper, the extension of the previous work [1], focuses on the effects of different levels of conservatism implicated in regulatory defaults on the estimates of risk. According to the postulated behaviors of regulated parties and the diversity of interests of regulators, in particular, various measures for evaluating the effect of conservatism in defaults are developed and their properties are explored. In addition, a simple decision model for setting regulatory defaults is formulated, based on the understanding of the effect of conservatism implicated in them. It can help decision makers evaluate the levels of safety likely to result from their regulatory policies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.665-673
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• 2021

Default has become an extreme concern in the current world due to the financial crisis. The previous prediction of companies' bankruptcy exhibits evidence of decision assistance for financial and regulatory bodies. Notwithstanding numerous advanced approaches, this area of study is not outmoded and requires additional research. The purpose of this research is to find the best classifier to detect a company's default risk and bankruptcy. This study used secondary data from the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and it is time-series data to examine the impact on the determinants. This research examined several different classifiers as per their competence to properly categorize default and non-default Pakistani companies listed on the PSX. Additionally, PSX has remained consistent for some years in terms of growth and has provided benefits to its stockholders. This paper utilizes machine learning techniques to predict financial distress in companies listed on the PSX. Our results indicate that most multi-stage mixture of classifiers provided noteworthy developments over the individual classifiers. This means that firms will have to work on the financial variables such as liquidity and profitability to not fall into the category of liquidation. Moreover, Adaptive Boosting (Adaboost) provides a significant boost in the performance of each classifier.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.211-222
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• 2020

This study examines simultaneous relationships between regulatory capital, risk, and cost-inefficiency for a sample of 30 commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2006 to 2018. To conduct the analysis, we used the Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) in an unbalanced panel data framework. The empirical results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between capital regulation and credit, and overall risk. It is also evident from the results that the capital adequacy ratio is positively and significantly related to default risk and liquidity risk. Therefore, higher capitalized banks take an effort to prevent more credit risk and promote financial stability by reducing liquidity risk. Results also report that banks have been characterized as inefficient, less capitalized, and high risk. On the other hand, efficient banks are more stable but have a high level of liquidity risk. Besides, from the size of the bank, large banks are defined as having lower regulatory capital, are more risk seekers but stable with higher cost-efficiency. Notably, higher capitalized banks are more profitable and cost-efficient by reducing risk. Finally, this study also provides some insightful policy suggestions to the stakeholders.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.253-268
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• 2011

본 논문은 우리나라 기업의 신용등급 전이행렬을 활용하여 부도율과 신용 등급 전이에 내재된 체계적 요인을 추출하는 방법을 소개하고, 이률 활용한 위기상황분석에 관한 연구를 수행하였다. 본 논문의 주요 발견은 등급전이행렬에 내재된 체계적 요인의 변동은 경기 동행성이 뚜렷하고, 실제 경기 변동을 설명하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 특히, 투자적격등급과 투기등급별로 경기에 반응하는 속도가 상당히 다르다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 신용등급 전이행렬에 내재된 체계적 위험을 고려한 위기상황분석은 부도확률에만 초점을 맞추는 방법에 비해 위기상황에 대한 포트폴리오의 변화를 파악할 수 있기 때문에 개념적으로 우월하고, 분석 결과 등급 전이를 고려한 위기상황분석이 부도확률만을 고려하는 방법에 비해 예상손실에 상당한 차이가 있음을 발견하였다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.3564-3570
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 최근 금융 감독당국이 상호금융기관에 대한 다양한 규제조치를 취하는 과정에서 상호금융 예수금 증가가 대출금 연체율을 상승시키는 것으로 판단하고 금융 감독정책을 수립하고 시행하는 것에 대한 타당성을 실증적인 방법으로 검증하였다. 전국의 1,161개의 지역농협에 대해 전수조사를 통해 2005년부터 2011년까지 상호금융 예수금 증가율과 대출금 연체율과의 상관관계를 통합회귀모형에 의해 분석한 결과 결국 금융 감독당국에서 전제하고 있었던 양자 간의 양(+)의 상관관계는 증명되지 않았으며, 오히려 음(-)의 관계를 가지는 것으로 판명되었다. 이는 상호금융기관 중에서 농협이 가지고 있는 특성으로서 증가된 예수금의 운용 방안이 다양화되고 있다는 점과 예수금증가가 동시에 자금의 조달금리를 낮추는 효과를 가져와서 이는 다시 대출금리를 낮게 운용할 수 있는 여지를 제공하게 되어 전반적으로 대출에 대해 긍정적인 영향을 미치기 때문이라고 할 수 있다. 금융 감독당국은 이러한 농협의 자금운용 상의 특수성과 예수금 증가율과 연체율과의 구체적인 상관관계를 잘 이해하고 정책방향을 재정립해야 할 것이다.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제36권
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• pp.47-84
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• 2007

The Uniform Customs and Practice for Documentary Credits ("UCP") may be treated as a useful laboratory for studying the scope and limitations of self regulation. This is due to its almost universal success on a global stage which provides it a perspective rarely available for self regulatory provisions and due to extensive experience of judicial review of it. In this sense, it is worthwhile to examine in brief the latest iteration of the UCP, Publication No. 600 ("UCP600"). This article describes and analyze some of core provisions of the UCP600 from the perspective of their adequacy as an exercise in self regulation. It is attempted first in view of several categories of private rulemaking; definitional rulemaking, default rules, procedural rules, and remedies. After that, it is examined second in view of sound rulemaking which is related to the relative role of law and practice. It points out rich and varied insights into the possibilities and problems associated with private rulemaking in connection with commercial transactions.

• 한국식품과학회지
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.492-497
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• 2005

잔류농약과 관련된 포장시험 및 기준설정에는 데이터의 변이성이 뒤따르기 때문에 여러가지 허수(default value)를 채택하고 있다. 잔류농약 분석상의 오차는 $RSD\;{\pm}30-40%$에 이르고 있어 잔류허용기준(MRL)은 이것을 감안하여 geometric progression에 따르고 있다. 과거 5년간(1998-2002)의 JMPR 보고서에 의하면 포장시험에서의 변이계수(중앙치에 대한 최고치 비율)은 LOQ 이상에서의 486개 농약-작물 조합에서 평균 3.8배에 이르고 있고 기준설정시의 절상효과는 최고치의 1.5배로 나타났다. 한편 국내에서 기준설정시의 규제마진(최고잔류치에 대한 최대잔류기준의 비율)은 822개 농약-작물 조합에서 평균 4.8배로 나타났다. 이와 같은 규제마진을 적용하는 경우 국내의 잔류기준은 Codex보다 높게 설정될 것으로 예상된다. 앞으로 농약잔류 허용기준의 설정에서 Codex기준과 국내기준의 조화를 이루기 위한 검증작업이 이루어져야 할 것이다.

• 대한자원환경지질학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한자원환경지질학회 2002년도 제18차 공동학술강연회 자연저감고 지질학 (대한 자원 환경지질학회)
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• pp.81-100
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• 2002

While most of regulatory communities in abroad recognize ' 'natural attenuation " to include degradation, dispersion, dilution, sorption (including precipitation and transformation), and volatilization as governing Processes, regulators prefer "degradation" because this mechanism destroys the contaminant of concern. Unfortunately, true degradation only applies to organic contaminants and short- lived radionuclides, and leaves most metals and long-lived radionuclides. The natural attenuation Processes may reduce the potential risk Posed by site contaminants in three ways: (i)contaminants could be converted to a less toxic form througy destructive processes such as biodegradation or abiotic transformations; (ii) potential exposure levels may be reduced by lowering concentrations (dilution and dispersion); and (iii) contaminant mobility and bioavailability may be reduced by sorption to geomedia. In this review, authors will focus will focul on "sorption" among the natural attenuation processes of hazardous inorganic contaminants including radionuclides. Note though that sorption and transformation processes of inorganic contaminants in the natural setting could be influenced by biotic activities but our discussion would limit only to geochemical reactions involved in the natural attenuation. All of the geochemical reactions have been studied in-depth by numerous researchers for many years to understand "retardation" process of contaminants in the geomedia. The most common approach for estimating retardation is the determination of distrubution coefficiendts ($K_{d}$) of contaminants using parametric or mechanistic models. As typocally used in fate and contaminant transport calculations such as predictive models of the natural attenuation, the $K_{d}$ is defined as the ratio of the contaminant concentration in the surrounding aqueous solution when the system is at equilibrium. Unfortunately, generic or default $K_{d}$ values can result in significant error when used to predict contaminant migration rate and to select a site remediation alternative. Thus, to input the best $K_{d}$ value in the contaminant transport model, it is essential that important geochemical processes affecting the transport should be identified and understood. Precipitation/dissolution and adsorption/desorption are considered the most important geochemical processes affecting the interaction of inorganic and radionuclide contaminants with geomedia at the near and far field, respectively. Most of contaminants to be discussed in this presentation are relatively immobile, i.e., have very high $K_{d}$ values under natural geochemical environments. Unfortunately, the obvious containment in a source area may not be good enough to qualify as monitored natural attenuation site unless owner demonstrate the efficacy if institutional controls that were put in place to protect potential receptors. In this view, natural attenuation as a remedial alternative for some of sites contaminated by hazardous-inorganic components is regulatory and public acceptance issues rather than scientific issue.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2018

Ground-level ozone ($O_3$) can be a menace for vegetation, especially in Asia where $O_3$ levels have been dramatically increased over the past decades. To ensure food security and maintain forest ecosystem services, such as nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration and functional diversity of soil biota, in the over-populated Asia, environmental standards are needed. To set proper standards, dose-response relationships should be established from which critical levels are derived. The predictor of the response in the dose-response relationship is an $O_3$ metric that indicates the dose level to which the plant has been exposed. This study aimed to review the relevant scientific literature and summarize the $O_3$ metrics used worldwide to provide insights for Asia. A variety of $O_3$ metrics have been used, for which we discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The most widely used metrics are based only on $O_3$ levels. Such metrics have been adopted by several regulatory agencies in the global. However, they are biologically irrelevant because they ignore the plant physiological capacity. Adopting AOT40 ($O_3$ mixing ratios Accumulated Over the Threshold of $40nmol\;mol^{-1}$) as the default index for setting critical levels in Asia would be a poor policy with severe consequences at national and Pan-Asian level. Asian studies should focus on flux-based $O_3$ metrics to provide relevant bases for developing proper standards. However, given the technical requirements in calculating flux-based $O_3$ metrics, which can be an important limitation in developing countries, no-threshold cumulative exposure indices like AOT0 should always accompany flux-based indices.