• 한국안전학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.54-58
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• 2014

This study deals with the accidents of circular intersections in Korea. The goal is to develop the accident models for 94 circular intersections. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to collecting the data of geometric structure and accidents, and comparatively analyzing such the models as Poisson and NB regression and multiple regression model using SPSS 17.0 and LIMDEP 3.0. The main results are as follows. First, the negative binomial model among various models was analyzed to be the most appropriate. Second, 3 independent variables was adopted in the model, and these variables was analyzed to have a positive relation to the accident rate. Finally, the reduced width of circulatory roadway, removal of the parking lot within circulatory roadway and appropriate levels of approach lane were required to improve the safety of circular intersection.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제12권19호
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• pp.31-37
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• 1989

본 논문은 비선형 회귀분석 모델(Nonlinear Regression Models)에서의 추산잔차(Recursive Residuals)를 정의하기 위한 것을 목적으로 한다. 선형 회귀분석 모델(Linear Regression Models)에서는 추산잔차가 우리가 측정할 수 없는 진짜 오차(True Error)와 같은 확률 분포를 갖는데 이의 평균은 0이고 분산은 ${sigma}^2$이다. 그러나 비선형 회귀분석에서는 이와 같은 정확한 분포를 알 수가 없기 때문에, 여러 종류의 잔차들을 연구 검토하고 나아가서 시뮬레이션(Simulation)을 통하여 분석.비교한 뒤 추산잔차를 정의하기로 한다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.83-92
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• 2016

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study was to develop safety performance functions (SPFs) that use zero-inflated negative binomial regression models for urban intersections in central business districts (CBDs), and to compare the statistical significance of developed models against that of regular negative binomial regression models. METHODS : To develop and analyze the SPFs of intersections in CBDs, data acquisition was conducted for dependent and independent variables in areas of study. We analyzed the SPFs using zero-inflated negative binomial regression model as well as regular negative binomial regression model. We then compared the results by analyzing the statistical significance of the models. RESULTS : SPFs were estimated for all accidents and injury accidents at intersections in CBDs in terms of variables such as AADT, Number of Lanes at Major Roads, Median Barriers, Right Turn with an Exclusive Turn Lane, Turning Guideline, and Front Signal. We also estimated the log-likelihood at convergence and the likelihood ratio of SPFs for comparing the zero-inflated model with the regular model. In he SPFs, estimated log-likelihood at convergence and the likelihood ratio of the zero-inflated model were at -836.736, 0.193 and -836.415, 0.195. Also estimated the log-likelihood at convergence and likelihood ratio of the regular model were at -843.547, 0.187 and -842.631, 0.189, respectively. These figures demonstrate that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models can better explain traffic accidents at intersections in CBDs. CONCLUSIONS : SPFs that use a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model demonstrate better statistical significance compared with those that use a regular negative binomial regression model.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.165-173
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• 2010

Soil respiration ($R_S$) is a critical component of the annual carbon balance of forests, but few studies thus far have attempted to evaluate empirical regression models in $R_S$. The principal objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationship between $R_S$ rates and soil temperature (ST) and soil water content (SWC) in soil from a cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest, and to evaluate empirical regression models for the prediction of $R_S$ using ST and SWC. We have been measuring $R_S$, using an open-flow gas-exchange system with an infrared gas analyzer during the snowfree season from 1999 to 2001 at the Takayama Forest, Japan. To evaluate the empirical regression models used for the prediction of $R_S$, we compared a simple exponential regression (flux = $ae^{bt}$Eq. [1]) and two polynomial multiple-regression models (flux = $ae^{bt}{\times}({\theta}{\nu}-c){\times}(d-{\theta}{\nu})^f:$ Eq. [2] and flux = $ae^{bt}{\times}(1-(1-({\theta}{\nu}/c))^2)$: Eq. [3]) that included two variables (ST: t and SWC: ${\theta}{\nu}$) and that utilized hourly data for $R_S$. In general, daily mean $R_S$ rates were positively well-correlated with ST, but no significant correlations were observed with any significant frequency between the ST and $R_S$ rates on periods of a day based on the hourly $R_S$ data. Eq. (2) has many more site-specific parameters than Eq. (3) and resulted in some significant underestimation. The empirical regression, Eq. (3) was best explained by temporal variations, as it provided a more unbiased fit to the data compared to Eq. (2). The Eq. (3) (ST $\times$ SWC function) also increased the predictive ability as compared to Eq. (1) (only ST exponential function), increasing the $R^2$ from 0.71 to 0.78.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.147-147
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• 2019

The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models determine the future state of the weather by forcing current weather conditions into the atmospheric models. The NWP models approximate mathematically the physical dynamics by nonlinear differential equations; however these approximations include uncertainties. The errors of the NWP estimations can be related to the initial and boundary conditions and model parameterization. Development in the meteorological forecast models did not solve the issues related to the inevitable biases. In spite of the efforts to incorporate all sources of uncertainty into the forecast, and regardless of the methodologies applied to generate the forecast ensembles, they are still subject to errors and systematic biases. The statistical post-processing increases the accuracy of the forecast data by decreasing the errors. Error prediction of the NWP models which is updating the NWP model outputs or model output statistics is one of the ways to improve the model forecast. The regression methods (including linear, polynomial and scaling regression) are applied to the present study to improve the real time forecast skill. Such post-processing consists of two main steps. Firstly, regression is built between forecast and measurement, available during a certain training period, and secondly, the regression is applied to new forecasts. In this study, the WRF real-time forecast data, in comparison with the observed data, had systematic biases; the errors related to the NWP model forecasts were reflected in the underestimation of the meteorological data forecast by the WRF model. The promising results will indicate that the post-processing techniques applied in this study improved the meteorological forecast data provided by WRF model. A comparison between various bias correction methods will show the strength and weakness of the each methods.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제27권9호
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• pp.13-20
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 주행 차량의 실시간 연료소모량을 예측할 수 있는 머신러닝 기법을 제안하고 그 특성을 분석하였다. 머신러닝 학습을 위해 실도로 주행을 실시하여 주행 속도, 가속도, 도로 구배와 함께 연료소모량을 측정하였다. 특성 데이터로 속도, 가속도, 도로구배를, 타깃으로 연료소모량을 지정하여 다양한 머신러닝 모델을 학습시켰다. 회귀법에 해당하는 K-최근접이웃회귀 및 선형회귀와 함께, 분류법에 해당하는 K-최근접이웃분류, 로지스틱회귀, 결정트리, 랜덤포레스트, 그래디언부스팅을 사용하였다. 실시간 연료소모량에 대한 예측 정확도는 0.5 ~ 0.6 수준으로 전반적으로 낮았고, 회귀법의 경우 분류법보다 정확도가 떨어졌다. 총연료소모량에 대한 예측 오차는 0.2 ~ 2.0% 수준으로 상당히 정확했고, 분류법보다 회귀법의 오차가 더 낮았다. 이는 예측 정확도의 기준으로 결정계수(R²)를 사용했기 때문인데, 이 값이 작을수록 타깃의 평균 부근에 예측치가 좁게 분포하기 때문이다. 따라서 실시간 연료소모량 예측에는 분류법이, 총연료소모량 예측에는 회귀법이 적합하다고 할 수 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.593-601
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• 2013

회귀모형에서 범주형 변수를 독립변수로 포함시켜야 할 경우가 발생한다. 회귀모형의 범주형 변수는 가변수를 통해 수량화된다. 이 연구에서는 하나의 양적 독립변수와 하나 혹은 두 개의 범주형 독립변수를 가지는 회귀모형에 대해 가설검정 결과와 함께 회귀직선을 보여주는 교육용 도구를 엑셀 VBA (Visual Basic for application)를 통해서 구현한다. 가설검정 결과와 회귀직선은 교호작용이 포함된 모형, 교호작용이 없는 모형 및 가변수가 없는 모형에 대해 단계별로 제공된다. 이 교육도구를 통해 가변수와 교호작용의 의미를 더 쉽게 이해할 수 있으며, 나아가 어떤 모형이 주어진 자료에 가장 적합한지 그림을 통해 판단할 수 있게 된다.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.739-754
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• 2024

This study presents an innovative AI-driven approach to assess the ultimate axial load in Double-Skinned Profiled Steel sheet Composite Walls (DPSCWs). Utilizing a dataset of 80 entries, seven input parameters were employed, and various AI techniques, including Linear Regression, Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression, Decision Tree Regression, Decision Tree with AdaBoost Regression, Random Forest Regression, Gradient Boost Regression Tree, Elastic Net Regression, Ridge Regression, and LASSO Regression, were evaluated. Decision Tree Regression and Random Forest Regression emerged as the most accurate models. The top three performing models were integrated into a hybrid approach, excelling in accurately estimating DPSCWs' ultimate axial load. This adaptable hybrid model outperforms traditional methods, reducing errors in complex scenarios. The validated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model showcases less than 1% error, enhancing reliability. Correlation analysis highlights robust predictions, emphasizing the importance of steel sheet thickness. The study contributes insights for predicting DPSCW strength in civil engineering, suggesting optimization and database expansion. The research advances precise load capacity estimation, empowering engineers to enhance construction safety and explore further machine learning applications in structural engineering.

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.37-43
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• 2014

BACKGROUND: Water quality data are collected less frequently than flow data because of the cost to collect and analyze, while water quality data corresponding to flow data are required to compute pollutant loads or to calibrate other hydrology models. Regression models are applicable to interpolate water quality data corresponding to flow data. METHODS AND RESULTS: A regression model was suggested which is capable to consider flow and time variance, and the regression model coefficients were calibrated using various measured water quality data with genetic-algorithm. Both LOADEST and the regression using genetic-algorithm were evaluated by 19 water quality data sets through calibration and validation. The regression model using genetic-algorithm displayed the similar model behaviors to LOADEST. The load estimates by both LOADEST and the regression model using genetic-algorithm indicated that use of a large proportion of water quality data does not necessarily lead to the load estimates with smaller error to measured load. CONCLUSION: Regression models need to be calibrated and validated before they are used to interpolate pollutant loads, as separating water quality data into two data sets for calibration and validation.

• Advances in Computational Design
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.113-128
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• 2022

Water consumption is strongly affected by numerous factors, such as population, climatic, geographic, and socio-economic factors. Therefore, the implementation of a reliable predictive model of water consumption pattern is challenging task. This study investigates the performance of predictive models based on multi-layer perceptron (MLP), multiple linear regression (MLR), and support vector regression (SVR). To understand the significant factors affecting water consumption, the stepwise regression (SW) procedure is used in MLR to obtain suitable variables. Then, this study also implements three predictive models based on these significant variables (e.g., SWMLR, SWMLP, and SWSVR). Annual data of water consumption in Thailand during 2006 - 2015 were compiled and categorized by provinces and distributors. By comparing the predictive performance of models with all variables, the results demonstrate that the MLP models outperformed the MLR and SVR models. As compared to the models with selected variables, the predictive capability of SWMLP was superior to SWMLR and SWSVR. Therefore, the SWMLP still provided satisfactory results with the minimum number of explanatory variables which in turn reduced the computation time and other resources required while performing the predictive task. It can be concluded that the MLP exhibited the best result and can be utilized as a reliable water demand predictive model for both of all variables and selected variables cases. These findings support important implications and serve as a feasible water consumption predictive model and can be used for water resources management to produce sufficient tap water to meet the demand in each province of Thailand.