• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regression model.

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Determination of proper ground motion prediction equation for reasonable evaluation of the seismic reliability in the water supply systems (상수도 시스템 지진 신뢰성의 합리적 평가를 위한 적정 지반운동예측식 결정)

  • Choi, Jeongwook;Kang, Doosun;Jung, Donghwi;Lee, Chanwook;Yoo, Do Guen;Jo, Seong-Bae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.661-670
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    • 2020
  • The water supply system has a wider installation range and various components of it than other infrastructure, making it difficult to secure stability against earthquakes. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods for evaluating the seismic performance of water supply systems. Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) is used to evaluate the seismic performance (e.g, failure probability) for water supply facilities such as pump, water tank, and pipes. GMPE is calculated considering the independent variables such as the magnitude of the earthquake and the ground motion such as PGV (Peak Ground Velocity) and PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration). Since the large magnitude earthquake data has not accumulated much to date in Korea, this study tried to select a suitable GMPE for the domestic earthquake simulation by using the earthquake data measured in Korea. To this end, GMPE formula is calculated based on the existing domestic earthquake and presented the results. In the future, it is expected that the evaluation will be more appropriate if the determined GMPE is used when evaluating the seismic performance of domestic waterworks. Appropriate GMPE can be directly used to evaluate hydraulic seismic performance of water supply networks. In other words, it is possible to quantify the damage rate of a pipeline during an earthquake through linkage with the pipe failure probability model, and it is possible to derive more reasonable results when estimating the water outage or low-pressure area due to pipe damages. Finally, the quantifying result of the seismic performance can be used as a design criteria for preparing an optimal restoration plan and proactive seismic design of pipe networks to minimize the damage in the event of an earthquake.

Optimization of TDA Recycling Process for TDI Residue using Near-critical Hydrolysis Process (근임계수 가수분해 공정을 이용한 TDI 공정 폐기물로부터 TDA 회수 공정 최적화)

  • Han, Joo Hee;Han, Kee Do;Jeong, Chang Mo;Do, Seung Hoe;Sin, Yeong Ho
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.650-658
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    • 2006
  • The recycling of TDA from solid waste of TDI plant(TDI-R) by near-critical hydrolysis reaction had been studied by means of a statistical design of experiment. The main and interaction effects of process variables had been defined from the experiments in a batch reactor and the correlation equation with process variables for TDA yield had been obtained from the experiments in a continuous pilot plant. It was confirmed that the effects of reaction temperature, catalyst type and concentration, and the weight ratio of water to TDI-R(WR) on TDA yield were significant. TDA yield decreased with increases in reaction temperature and catalyst concentration, and increased with an increase in WR. As a catalyst, NaOH was more effective than $Na_2CO_3$ for TDA yield. The interaction effects between catalyst concentration and temperature, WR and temperature, catalyst type and reaction time on TDA yield had been defined as significant. Although the effect of catalyst concentration on TDA yield at $300^{\circ}C$ as subcritical water was insignificant, the TDA yield decreased with increasing catalyst concentration at $400^{\circ}C$ as supercritical water. On the other hand, the yield increased with an increase in WR at $300^{\circ}C$ but showed negligible effect with WR at $400^{\circ}C$. The optimization of process variables for TDA yield has been explored with a pilot plant for scale-up. The catalyst concentration and WR were selected as process variables with respect to economic feasibility and efficiency. The effects of process variables on TDA yield had been explored by means of central composite design. The TDA yield increased with an increase in catalyst concentration. It showed maximum value at below 2.5 of WR and then decreased with an increase in WR. However, the ratio at which the TDA yield showed a maximum value increased with increasing catalyst concentration. The correlation equation of a quadratic model with catalyst concentration and WR had been obtained by the regression analysis of experimental results in a pilot plant.

The Risk Factors for Infectious Complications after Elective Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer (위암의 정규 위절제술 후 감염성 합병증의 위험인자)

  • Kim, Seon-Kwang;Kim, Chan-Young;Yang, Doo-Hyun
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.237-243
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: Postoperative Infectious complications are recognized as major complications that are associated with surgery. Although many studies have focused on the risk factors of postoperative complications, little is known about the risk factors of infectious complications after gastric cancer surgery, and especially after elective gastrectomy. There is now more and more interest in the risk factors of infectious complications in relation to controlling infection and as indicators of qualitatively assessing infectious complications. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors related with infectious complications after performing elective gastrectomy for treating gastric cancer. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed a total of 788 patients who had undergone elective gastrectomy for gastric cancer between Jan. 2000 and Dec. 2007. The characteristics of the patients were divided according to the patients' factors and the operations' factors. Results: The patients' mean age was 58.9 (range: 24~91) years; 545 were male and 243 were female. The mean duration of the hospital stay was 20.3 days (range: 5~135 days), the mean operation time was 181.3 minutes (range: 65~440 minutes). The total complication rate was 17.1% (n=135) and the complication rate was 38.5% (n=52) among the 135 patients with infectious complications. The infectious complications were surgical site infection (59.7%), Pneumonia (19.3%), intra-abdominal abscess (11.5%), pseudomembranous colitis (5.7%), bacteremia (1.9%) and hepatic abscess (1.9%). On the univariate analysis, the significant risk factors were male gender, blood transfusion, smoking at the time of diagnosis, alcohol drinking, diabetes mellitus and previous cardiovascular disease (P<0.05 for all). On multivariate analysis that used a logistic regression model, the significant independent risk factors were smoking at the time of diagnosis (OR: 2.877. 95% CI: 1.449~5.713), blood transfusion (OR: 3.440, 95% CI: 1.241~9.534), diabetes mellitus (OR: 3.150, 95% CI: 1.518~6.538), and previous cardiovascular disease (OR: 2.784, 95% CI: 1.4731~5.2539). Conclusion: Pre- or post-operative blood transfusion and the patient's medical history such as previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, smoking etc. are the risk factors for infectious complications after undergoing elective gastrectomy for gastric cancer. The patients that have these risk factors need to be treated with great care to prevent infectious disease after elective gastrectomy.

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Analysis of Utilization Characteristics, Health Behaviors and Health Management Level of Participants in Private Health Examination in a General Hospital (일개 종합병원의 민간 건강검진 수검자의 검진이용 특성, 건강행태 및 건강관리 수준 분석)

  • Kim, Yoo-Mi;Park, Jong-Ho;Kim, Won-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.301-311
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to analyze characteristics, health behaviors and health management level related to private health examination recipients in one general hospital. To achieve this, we analyzed 150,501 cases of private health examination data for 11 years from 2001 to 2011 for 20,696 participants in 2011 in a Dae-Jeon general hospital health examination center. The cluster analysis for classify private health examination group is used z-score standardization of K-means clustering method. The logistic regression analysis, decision tree and neural network analysis are used to periodic/non-periodic private health examination classification model. 1,000 people were selected as a customer management business group that has high probability to be non-periodic private health examination patients in new private health examination. According to results of this study, private health examination group was categorized by new, periodic and non-periodic group. New participants in private health examination were more 30~39 years old person than other age groups and more patients suspected of having renal disease. Periodic participants in private health examination were more male participants and more patients suspected of having hyperlipidemia. Non-periodic participants in private health examination were more smoking and sitting person and more patients suspected of having anemia and diabetes mellitus. As a result of decision tree, variables related to non-periodic participants in private health examination were sex, age, residence, exercise, anemia, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, obesity and liver disease. In particular, 71.4% of non-periodic participants were female, non-anemic, non-exercise, and suspicious obesity person. To operation of customized customer management business for private health examination will contribute to efficiency in health examination center.

Relation of Social Security Network, Community Unity and Local Government Trust (지역사회 사회안전망구축과 지역사회결속 및 지방자치단체 신뢰의 관계)

  • Kim, Yeong-Nam;Kim, Chan-Sun
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.42
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    • pp.7-36
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    • 2015
  • This study aims at analyzing difference of social Security network, Community unity and local government trust according to socio-demographical features, exploring the relation of social Security network, Community unity and local government trust according to socio-demographical features, presenting results between each variable as a model and verifying the property of mutual ones. This study sampled general citizens in Gwangju for about 15 days Aug. 15 through Aug. 30, 2014, distributed total 450 copies using cluster random sampling, gathered 438 persons, 412 persons of whom were used for analysis. This study verified the validity and credibility of the questionnaire through an experts' meeting, preliminary test, factor analysis and credibility analysis. The credibility of questionnaire was ${\alpha}=.809{\sim}{\alpha}=.890$. The inout data were analyzed by study purpose using SPSSWIN 18.0, as statistical techniques, factor analysis, credibility analysis, correlation analysis, independent sample t verification, ANOVA, multi-regression analysis, path analysis etc. were used. the findings obtained through the above study methods are as follows. First, building a social Security network has an effect on Community institution. That is, the more activated a, the higher awareness on institution. the more activated street CCTV facilities, anti-crime design, local government Security education, the higher the stability. Second, building a social Security network has an effect on trust of local government. That is, the activated local autonomous anti-crime activity, anti-crime design. local government's Security education, police public oder service, the more increased trust of policy, service management, busines performance. Third, Community unity has an effect on trust of local government. That is, the better Community institution is achieved, the higher trust of policy. Also the stabler Community institution, the higher trust of business performance. Fourth, building a social Security network has a direct or indirect effect on Community unity and local government trust. That is, social Security network has a direct effect on trust of local government, but it has a higher effect through Community unity of parameter. Such results showed that Community unity in Gwangju Region is an important factor, which means it is an important variable mediating building a social Security network and trust of local government. To win trust of local residents, we need to prepare for various cultural events and active communication space and build a social Security network for uniting them.

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The Role of Pelvic Irradiation after Hysterectomy in Early Stage Cervical Carcinoma with Pelvic Nodal Metastasis (림프절 전이를 동반한 초기 자궁경부암에서 수술 후 방사선치료의 역할)

  • Suh, Hyun-Suk
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.469-475
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : To determine the role of Pelvic irradiation in stage I or IIA cervical carcinoma with pelvic nodal metastasis after hysterectomy and bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy. Materials and Methods : This is a retrospective study of 68 cervical carcinoma patients who were found to have pelvic nodal metastasis at hysterectomy and received pelvic irradiation from 1983 to 1996 at Inje University Seoul Paik Hospital. External beam radiation therapy to pelvis was delivered using 4 MeV Linac and intracavitary irradiation was given via vaginal ovoids or cylinders. Five-year survival and disease-free survival were estimated by Kaplan-Meier Method and prognostic factors related to survival were analysed by log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results : Median length of follow-up was 52months. Five-year overall survival and disease-free survival (DFS) were 81.8$\%$ and 81.7$\%$ respectively. Patients with endometrial invasion had a 57.1$\%$ 5-year DFS compared to 87.5$\%$ for those without endometrial invasion (p=0.0074). Multivariate analysis revealed endometrial invasion as an only statistically significant prognostic factor for 5-year DFS. Among total 15 (22$\%$) recurrences. pelvic recurrences occurred in 4 cases and distant metastases occurred in 13 cases. Conclusion : We have been able to confirm previous results demonstrating marked decrease in local recurrence after pelvic irradiation. In view of the high proportion of distant metastasis found in this study, a trial of aggressive adjuvant systemic therapy and irradiation in early stage cervical carcinoma patients with pelvic nodal metastasis, especially with endometrial invasion, appears to be warranted.

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Lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and air pollution (대기오염에 의한 폐암 및 만성폐색성호흡기질환 -개인 흡연력을 보정한 만성건강영향평가-)

  • Sung, Joo-Hon;Cho, Soo-Hun;Kang, Dae-Hee;Yoo, Keun-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.3 s.58
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    • pp.585-598
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    • 1997
  • Background : Although there are growing concerns about the adverse health effect of air pollution, not much evidence on health effect of current air pollution level had been accumulated yet in Korea. This study was designed to evaluate the chronic health effect of ai. pollution using Korean Medical Insurance Corporation (KMIC) data and air quality data. Medical insurance data in Korea have some drawback in accuracy, but they do have some strength especially in their national coverage, in having unified ID system and individual information which enables various data linkage and chronic health effect study. Method : This study utilized the data of Korean Environmental Surveillance System Study (Surveillance Study), which consist of asthma, acute bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), cardiovascular diseases (congestive heart failure and ischemic heart disease), all cancers, accidents and congenital anomaly, i. e., mainly potential environmental diseases. We reconstructed a nested case-control study wit5h Surveillance Study data and air pollution data in Korea. Among 1,037,210 insured who completed? questionnaire and physical examination in 1992, disease free (for chronic respiratory disease and cancer) persons, between the age of 35-64 with smoking status information were selected to reconstruct cohort of 564,991 persons. The cohort was followed-up to 1995 (1992-5) and the subjects who had the diseases in Surveillance Study were selected. Finally, the patients, with address information and available air pollution data, left to be 'final subjects' Cases were defined to all lung cancer cases (424) and COPD admission cases (89), while control groups are determined to all other patients than two case groups among 'final subjects'. That is, cases are putative chronic environmental diseases, while controls are mainly acute environmental diseases. for exposure, Air quality data in 73 monitoring sites between 1991 - 1993 were analyzed to surrogate air pollution exposure level of located areas (58 areas). Five major air pollutants data, TSP, $O_3,\;SO_2$, CO, NOx was available and the area means were applied to the residents of the local area. 3-year arithmetic mean value, the counts of days violating both long-term and shot-term standards during the period were used as indices of exposure. Multiple logistic regression model was applied. All analyses were performed adjusting for current and past smoking history, age, gender. Results : Plain arithmetic means of pollutants level did not succeed in revealing any relation to the risk of lung cancer or COPD, while the cumulative counts of non-at-tainment days did. All pollutants indices failed to show significant positive findings with COPD excess. Lung cancer risks were significantly and consistently associated with the increase of $O_3$ and CO exceedance counts (to corrected error level -0.017) and less strongly and consistently with $SO_2$ and TSP. $SO_2$ and TSP showed weaker and less consistent relationship. $O_3$ and CO were estimated to increase the risks of lung cancer by 2.04 and 1.46 respectively, the maximal probable risks, derived from comparing more polluted area (95%) with cleaner area (5%). Conclusions : Although not decisive due to potential misclassication of exposure, these results wert drawn by relatively conservative interpretation, and could be used as an evidence of chronic health effect especially for lung cancer. $O_3$ might be a candidate for promoter of lung cancer, while CO should be considered as surrogated measure of motor vehicle emissions. The control selection in this study could have been less appropriate for COPD, and further evaluation with another setting might be necessary.

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Association of Lifestyle with Blood Pressure (생활양식과 혈압의 관련성)

  • Joo, Ree;Chung, Jong-Hak
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.3 s.58
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    • pp.497-507
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to evaluate the association of various lifestyle with blood pressure. The data were obtained from the individuals who got routine health examination in Department of Occupational Medicine, Yeungnam University Hospital from June to September, 1996. Among these people, we selected 130 cases of hypertensives (97 males, 33 females) and 150 normotensives(70 males, 80 females) and study was conducted. The authors collected the information of the risk factors related to hypertension such as age, family history of hypertension, fasting blood sugar, serum total cholesterol, alcohol consumption(g/week), smoking history, relative amount of salt intake (low, moderate, high), the frequency' of weekly meat consumption, BMI, daily coffee consumption(cups/day) and the frequency of regular exercise(frequency/week) through questionnaire and laboratory test. By simple analysis, BMI was significantly associated with hypertension in male(p<0.05), and the frequency of weekly meat consumption was significantly associated with hypertension in female(p<0.05). Using logistic regression model, elevated odds ratio was noted for fasting blood sugar, serum total cholesterol, family history of hypertension, alcohol consumption, salt intake and BMI, and reduced odds ratio was noted for coffee consumption and exercise in male but fasting blood sugar(odds ratio=1.022, 95% CI=1.000-1.044), family history in both of parents(odds ratio=3.301, 95% CI=1.864-4.738), salt intake(odds ratio=1.690, 95% CI=1.082-2.298) and BMI(odds ratio=1.204, 95% CI=1.065-1.343) were statistically significant(p<0.05). In female, elevated odds ratio was noted in serum total choles terol, family history of hypertension, BMI and meat consumption. Of all these variables, the family history of hypertension in either of parents(odds ratio=4.981, 95% CI=3.650-6.312), family history in both of parents(odds ratio=16.864, 95% CI=14.577-19.151), BMI(odds ratio=1.167, 95% CI=1.016-1.318) and meat consumption(odds ratio=2.045, 95% CI=1.133-2.963) showed statistically significant association with hypertension in female(p<0.05).

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A Study on the Reconfiguration Effect of Busan Port Operator in Logistics Environment (물류환경변화에 따른 부산항 운영사 재구성효과에 관한 실증연구)

  • Park, Ho-Chul;Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.507-517
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    • 2018
  • The probability of T/S cargo volume to decrease is the most notable problem associated with inappropriate mix of terminal operators in Busan port. Other problems include, the deterioration of the national carriers' competitiveness from non-operation of own terminal, excessively high proportion of financial operators in the engagement of operation which may result in their passiveness in timely investment, additional cost burden to carriers' in the handling inter-terminal T/S cargo transportation and inefficiency in terminal operation by the multiplicity of operators proved to be same recognized as so through the analysis. Therefore, in order to provide solutions for the problems and to strengthen Busan port's competitiveness, this research suggests the restructuring of operators mix as follows. To achieve sustainable growth of T/S cargo, global carriers' participation in terminal operation should be of utmost priority. To enhance the operational efficiency, the operators should be integrated. Similarly, the integration of operators will play a key role in verifying that national carriers' own terminal operation is an important factor in raising its competence. Finally, BPA's active engagement in the entire operation of port is also critical in public-oriented operation of the port. Whereas in the interactive analysis by taking the merits of Busan port into consideraion, global carrier's participation in operation, integration of operators and BPA's engagement in operation proved to contribute to the increase of T/S cargo and strengthening of operational efficiencies of Busan port.

Analysis on Socio-cultural Aspect of Willingness to Pay for Air Quality (PM10, PM2.5) Improvement in Seoul (서울지역 미세먼지 문제 개선을 위한 사회문화적 지불의사액 추정)

  • Kim, Jaewan;Jung, Taeyong;Lee, Taedong;Lee, Dong Kun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2019
  • Over the last few years, air pollution ($PM_{10}$, $PM_{2.5}$) in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) has emerged as one of the most concerned and threatening environmental issues among the residents. It brings about various harmful effects on human health, as well as ecosystem and industrial activities. Governments and individuals pay various costs to mitigate the level of air pollutants. This study aims to empirically find the willingness to pays (WTP) among the parents from different socio-cultural groups - international and domestic groups to mitigate air pollution ($PM_{10}$, $PM_{2.5}$) in their residential area. Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM) is used with employing single-bounded dichotomous choice technique to elicit the respondent's WTP. Using tobit (censored regression) and probit models, the monthly mean WTP of the pooled sample for green electricity which contributes to improve air quality in the region was estimated as 3,993 KRW (3.58 USD). However, the mean WTP between the international group and domestic group through a sub-sample analysis shows broad distinction as 3,325KRW (2.98 USD) and 4,449 KRW (3.98 USD) respectively. This is because that socio-cultural characteristics of each group such as socio-economic status, personal experience, trust in institutions and worldview are differently associated with the WTP. Based on the results, the society needs to raise awareness of lay people to find a strong linkage between the current PM issue and green electricity. Also, it needs to improve trust in the government's pollution abatement policy to mobilize more assertive participation of the people from different socio-cultural background.