• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regional regression model

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Development of High-frequency Data-based Inflow Water Temperature Prediction Model and Prediction of Changesin Stratification Strength of Daecheong Reservoir Due to Climate Change (고빈도 자료기반 유입 수온 예측모델 개발 및 기후변화에 따른 대청호 성층강도 변화 예측)

  • Han, Jongsu;Kim, Sungjin;Kim, Dongmin;Lee, Sawoo;Hwang, Sangchul;Kim, Jiwon;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.271-296
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    • 2021
  • Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86℃, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48℃/10year and 0.21~0.41℃/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38℃/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.

A Study on the Distribution of Startups and Influencing Factors by Generation in Seoul: Focusing on the Comparison of Young and Middle-aged (서울시 세대별 창업 분포와 영향 요인에 대한 연구: 청년층과 중년층의 비교를 중심으로)

  • Hong, Sungpyo;Lim, Hanryeo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.13-29
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution and location factors of startups by generation (young and middle-aged) in Seoul. To this end, a research model was established that included factors of industry, population, and startup institutions by generation in 424 administrative districts using the Seoul Business Enterprise Survey(2018), which includes data on the age group of entrepreneurs. As an analysis method, descriptive statistics were conducted to confirm the frequency, average and standard deviation of startups by generation and major variables in the administrative districts of Seoul, and spatial distribution and characteristics of startups by generation were analyzed through global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis. In particular, the spatial distribution of startups in Seoul was confirmed in-depth by categorizing and analyzing startups by major industries. Afterwards, an appropriate spatial regression analysis model was selected through the Lagrange test, and based on this, the location factors affecting startups by generation were analyzed. The main results derived from the research results are as follows. First, there was a significant difference in the spatial distribution of young and middle-aged startups. The young people started to startups in the belt-shaped area that connects Seocho·Gangnam-Yongsan-Mapo-Gangseo, while middle-aged people were relatively active in the southeastern region represented by Seocho, Gangnam, Songpa, and Gangdong. Second, startups by generation in Seoul showed various spatial distributions according to the type of business. In the knowledge high-tech industries(ICT, professional services) in common, Seocho, Gangnam, Mapo, Guro, and Geumcheon were the centers, and the manufacturing industry was focused on existing clusters. On the other hand, in the case of the life service industry, young people were active in startups near universities and cultural centers, while middle-aged people were concentrated on new towns. Third, there was a difference in factors that influenced the startup location of each generation in Seoul. For young people, high-tech industries, universities, cultural capital, and densely populated areas were significant factors for startup, and for middle-aged people, professional service areas, low average age, and the level of concentration of start-up support institutions had a significant influence on startup. Also, these location factors had different influences for each industry. The implications suggested through the study are as follows. First, it is necessary to support systematic startups considering the characteristics of each region, industry, and generation in Seoul. As there are significant differences in startup regions and industries by generation, it is necessary to strengthen a customized startup support system that takes into account these regional and industrial characteristics. Second, in terms of research methods, a follow-up study is needed that comprehensively considers culture and finance at the large districts(Gu) level through data accumulation.

Long-term (2002~2017) Eutropication Characteristics, Empirical Model Analysis in Hapcheon Reservoir, and the Spatio-temporal Variabilities Depending on the Intensity of the Monsoon (합천호의 장기간 (2002~2017) 부영양화 특성, 경험적 모델 분석 및 몬순강도에 따른 시공간적 이화학적 수질 변이)

  • Kang, Yu-Jin;Lee, Sang- Jae;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.605-619
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study was to analyze eutrophication characteristics, empirical model analysis, and variation of water quality according to monsoon intensity in Hapcheon Reservoir for 16 years from 2002 to 2017. Long-term annual water quality analysis showed that Hapcheon Reservoir was in a meso-nutrition to eutrophic condition, and the eutrophic state intensified after the summer monsoon. Annual rainfall volume (high vs. low rainfall) and the seasonal intensity in each year were the key factors that regulate the long-term water quality variation provided that there is no significant change of the point- and non-point source in the watershed. Dry years and wet years showed significant differences in the concentrations of TP, TN, BOD, and conductivity, indicating that precipitation had the most direct influence on nutrients and organic matter dynamics. Nutrient indicators (TP, TN), organic pollution indicators (BOD, COD), total suspended solids, and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), which was an estimator of primary productivity, had significant positive relations (p<0.05) with precipitation. The Chl-a concentration, which is an indicator of green algae, was highly correlated with TP, TN, and BOD, which differed from other lakes that showed the lower Chl-a concentration when nutrients increased excessively. Empirical model analysis of log-transformed TN, TP, and Chl-a indicated that the Chl-a concentration was linearly regulated by phosphorus concentration, but not by nitrogen concentration. Spatial regression analysis of the riverine, transition, and lacustrine zones of $log_{10}TN$, $log_{10}TP$, and $log_{10}CHL$ showed that TN and Chl-a had significant relations (p<0.005) while TN and Chl-a had p > 0.05, indicating that phosphorus had a key role in the algal growth. Moreover, the higher correlation of both $log_{10}TP$ and $log_{10}TN$ to $log_{10}CHL$ in the riverine zone than the lacustrine zone indicated that there was little impact of inorganic suspended solids on the light limitation in the riverine zone.

A Promoter SNP (rs1800682, -670C/T) of FAS Is Associated with Stroke in a Korean Population

  • Kang, Sung-Wook;Chung, Joo-Ho;Kim, Dong-Hwan;Yun, Dong-Hwan;Yoo, Seung-Don;Kim, Hee-Sang;Seo, Wan;Yoon, Jee-Sang;Baik, Hyung-Hwan
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.206-211
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    • 2010
  • The Fas (TNF receptor superfamily, member 6) (FAS)/FAS ligand (FASLG) interaction plays a central role in the regulation of programmed cell death. FAS and FASLG polymorphisms in promoter regions affect transcriptional activities. To investigate whether FAS and FASLG polymorphisms are associated with the development and clinical phenotypes of stroke, 2 promoter single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in FAS (rs1800682, -670C/T) and FASLG (rs763110, -844C/T) were selected and genotyped by direct sequencing in 220 stroke patients [107 ischemic stroke (IS), 77 intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 36 subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH)] and 369 control subjects. For the analysis of clinical symptoms, all stroke patients were divided into 3 clinical phenotypes according to the respective results of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Survey (NIHSS) and the Modified Barthel Index (MBI) and the presence or absence of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). The SNPStats, SNPAnalyzer, and Helixtree programs were used to analyze the genetic data. Multiple logistic regression models (codominant, dominant, and recessive) were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and p-values. The promoter SNP rs1800682 was associated with stroke in the codominant (OR=0.48, 95% CI=0.25-0.94, p=0.04) and dominant models (OR=0.51, 95% CI=0.30-0.87, p=0.011). However, a FASLG SNP (rs763110) was not in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (p<0.05). In the analysis of stroke types, rs1800682 was associated with IS in the codominant (OR=0.30, 95% CI=0.12-0.74, p=0.025), dominant (OR=0.44, 95% CI=0.23-0.88, p=0.018), and recessive models (OR=0.45, 95% CI=0.21-0.99, p=0.042). The genotype frequencies of rs1800682 were different between ICH and controls in the dominant model (OR=0.49, 95% CI=0.26-0.94, p=0.031) but not between SAH and controls. In the analysis of clinical symptoms, however, rs1800682 was not related to the 3 clinical phenotypes (NIHSS, MBI, and CRPS). These results suggest that a promoter SNP (rs1800682, -670C/T) in FAS may be associated with the development of stroke in the Korean population.

Effects of Milk Consumption on Calcaneal Quantitative Ultrasound and Bone Turnover Markers of Women Living in Asan (아산시 거주 여성에서 우유섭취가 골초음파 상태와 골대사지표에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hee-Seon;Kim, Min-Kyoung;Jang, Dong-Min;Kim, Nam-Soo;Kim, Jin-Ho;Lee, Byung-Kook
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.440-448
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of 16-month milk consumption as a part of the health promotion community program for women in Asan. Subjects included 313 women belonging to the milk group (mean age = 69.1, range $47{\sim}89 y$) and 66 women to the control (mean age=43.6, range $20{\sim}69 y$) group. For those in the milk group, one cup (200 ml) of partially lactose-digested low-fat milk was provided everyday for 16 months. Each subject was interviewed to assess calcium intake by a 24-h recall after fasting blood was obtained for analyzing bone turnover markers, and calcaneus broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) was measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) on the left heel before and after the milk supplementation. After 16 months, the calcium intake levels changed from 55% of recommended dietary allowance (RDA) to 85% RDA in the milk group and from 73% RDA to 84% RDA in the control group. BUA were reduced from $67.9{\pm}8.1$ to $64.7{\pm}17.5$ dB/MHz for milk and from $90.4{\pm}13.0$ to $87.2{\pm}15.2$ dB/MHz for control groups. Paired t-test showed the changes of BUA for both groups (-3.24 and -3.15 dB/MHz for milk and control groups, respectively) were significant, but the two groups did not show any differences in absolute changes. When post-BUA was analyzed after age, initial BUA and menopausal status were controlled as covariates in ANCOVA model, the milk group showed significantly (p < 0.05) smaller changes than the control group (-3.50 vs -6.71 dB/MHz, respectively). According to a multiple regression analysis, milk consumption and initial BUA showed significant interaction meaning that those with lower initial BUA showed higher milk effects. We conclude that one-cup a day milk consumption for 16 month can prevent further bone loss and significantly improve calcium intake.

A Prospective Cohort Study on the Relationship of Sleep Duration With All-cause and Disease-specific Mortality in the Korean Multi-center Cancer Cohort Study

  • Yeo, Yohwan;Ma, Seung Hyun;Park, Sue Kyung;Chang, Soung-Hoon;Shin, Hai-Rim;Kang, Daehee;Yoo, Keun-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.271-281
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: Emerging evidence indicates that sleep duration is associated with health outcomes. However, the relationship of sleep duration with long-term health is unclear. This study was designed to determine the relationship of sleep duration with mortality as a parameter for long-term health in a large prospective cohort study in Korea. Methods: The study population included 13 164 participants aged over 20 years from the Korean Multi-center Cancer Cohort study. Information on sleep duration was obtained through a structured questionnaire interview. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality were estimated using a Cox regression model. The non-linear relationship between sleep duration and mortality was examined non-parametrically using restricted cubic splines. Results: The HRs for all-cause mortality showed a U-shape, with the lowest point at sleep duration of 7 to 8 hours. There was an increased risk of death among persons with sleep duration of ${\leq}5$ hours (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.41) and of ${\geq}10$ hours (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.72). In stratified analysis, this relationship of HR was seen in women and in participants aged ${\geq}60$ years. Risk of cardiovascular disease-specific mortality was associated with a sleep duration of ${\leq}5$ hours (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.93). Risk of death from respiratory disease was associated with sleep duration at both extremes (${\leq}5$ and ${\geq}10$ hours). Conclusions: Sleep durations of 7 to 8 hours may be recommended to the public for a general healthy lifestyle in Korea.

Factors Associated with Impaired Fasting Glucose by Obesity status of Non-diabetic Adults (당뇨병이 없는 성인의 비만 여부에 따른 공복혈당장애 관련 요인)

  • Lee, Su-Jeong;Kim, Keon-Yeop;Kim, Myung-Gwan;Nam, Hang-Me;Bae, Sang-Geun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.180-186
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    • 2017
  • This study examined the prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose and related factors in normal non-diabetic adults. This study used the raw data (general characteristics, health behavior, obesity, impaired fasting glucose etc.) from the 6th Korea National Health & Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in the second year (2014), and out of all 7,550 survey participants, 1,341 were selected as the final research subjects. After stratifying according to obesity, a logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors related to an impaired fasting glucose level. The older subjects were more likely to have an impaired fasting glucose in both the obesity group and normal weight group (p<.001). The obesity group showed a higher impaired fasting glucose rate when they drank more alcohol (p<.05) and consumed less fruit (p<.05). Therefore, balanced nutrients and control of the blood sugar level through proper education and public health policies of fruit intake and alcohol are needed.

An Analysis on the correlation between the rate of increase in deposit received of Nonghyup Mutual Finance and the default Rate (농협 상호금융 예수금증가율과 연체율과의 상관관계분석)

  • Park, Jeong-Chul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.3564-3570
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    • 2014
  • This study assessed the validity of establishing and implementing a financial supervisory policy considering that Mutual finance's increase in deposits received raises the rate of loans in the process that the recent financial supervisory authorities applied various regulatory measures to mutual financial organizations. As a result of the analysis with a least squares regression model for the correlation between the rate of increase in the deposits received by Nonghyup Mutual Finance and the default rate of loans through the complete enumeration on the 1,161 the regional Nonghyup branches nationwide from 2005 to 2011, showed that there was no (+) correlation between them the financial supervisory authorities premised but a (-) relation. As Nonghyup is a mutual financial organization with the phenomenon that the application plan of increased deposits received is becoming diversified, the increase in deposits received helps reduce the procurement interest rate of funds, which provides a chance to apply the low interest of loans again, so they have positive effects on the overall loans. Financial Supervisory authorities should re-establish a direction of policy understanding the characteristics of Nonghyup's fund use and the detailed correlation between the rate of increase in deposits received and the default rate.

The Estimation of Temporal Change Patterns associated with Economic Growth and Urban Areas in a Border Region using DMSP-OLS Nighttime Imagery Data: The Case Study of Jilin Province, China (DMSP-OLS 야간영상자료를 이용한 접경지역의 경제성장과 시가지 면적의 시계열 변화 패턴 추정: 중국 지린성을 사례로)

  • Kim, Minho;Joh, Young-Kug
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.458-471
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    • 2019
  • DMSP-OLS nighttime satellite imagery could be used to derive the sum of lights (SOL) and built-up area, and the two indices have been widely employed to make the estimation of socio-economic variables and the dynamics of urban developments. Considering it, this research investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of economic growth and urbanized area in Jilin Province, China, using DMSP-OLS data for a time span between 1992 and 2012. This study found the SOLs of both the province and most cities to tend to grow during the period. While SOL-weighted centroids' means moved towards northwestern direction, urban-area centroids' means followed the trend of south-eastern migration. These directional patterns could be associated with the Northeast Revitalization Plan of Chinese governments. Nonetheless, a future study will need to consider SNPP VIIRS DNB imagery in order to overcome temporal limitation of DMSP-OLS data. In addition, it is also necessary to estimate socio-economic indices, e.g., growth regional domestic product, using a regression model developed with correlation relationship between economic statistics ad SOL.

Relation between Highway Improvement and Induced Travel Demand, and Estimate the Demand Elasticity (A Seoul Metropolitan Area Case) (도로환경개선과 집합적 개념의 유발통행수요와의 관련성 규명 및 수요탄력성 추정(수도권을 중심으로))

  • Lee, Gyu-Jin;Choe, Gi-Ju;Sim, Sang-U;Kim, Sang-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.4 s.90
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2006
  • The purpose or this paper is to investigate the relationship between highway improvement and Induced Travel Demand(ITD) focusing on the Seoul metropolitan area data. In addition, authors tried to estimate basic unit of demand elasticity focusing on zone and trip purpose which can be applied for the ITD forecasting. The results are based on the 2002 Metropolitan Household Transportation Survey Data, where the demand elasticity (DE) is -0.582 in Seoul, -0.597 in Incheon and -0.559 in Gyounggi province, respectively. This study revealed part of the relationship between highway improvement and ITD for metropolitan region and provided the framework for yielding real estimated values by applying the concept of demand elasticity in terms of the relationship by using regional and long-term data. We expect that the basic unit of demand elasticity focusing on zone and trip purpose can be applied for the ITD forecasting to analyze the whole demand exactly The estimated DE's for age group and day of week can also be used for Proper transportation management and transport Policy making. Some limitations have also been discussed.