• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• v.1
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• pp.235-240
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• 2006

The paper will give an overview of the mission of GalTeC and then concentrate on two main aspects. The first more detailed aspect, is the analysis of the key performance parameters for the Galileo system services and presenting a technical overview of methods and algorithms used. The second more detailed aspect, is the service volume prediction including service dimensioning using the Prediction tool. In order to monitor and validate the Galileo SIS performance for Open Service (OS) and Safety Of Life services (SOL) regarding the key performance parameters, different analyses in the SIS domain and User domain are considered. In the SIS domain, the validation of Signal-in-Space Accuracy SISA and Signal-in-Space Monitoring Accuracy SISMA is performed. For this purpose first of all an independent OD&TS and Integrity determination and processing software is developed to generate the key reference performance parameters named as SISRE (Signal In Space Reference Errors) and related over-bounding statistical information SISRA (Signal In Space Reference Accuracy) based on raw measurements from independent sites (e.g. IGS), Galileo Ground Sensor Stations (GSS) or an own regional monitoring network. Secondly, the differences of orbits and satellite clock corrections between Galileo broadcast ephemeris and the precise reference ephemeris generated by GalTeC will also be compared to check the SIS accuracy. Thirdly, in the user domain, SIS based navigation solution PVT on reference sites using Galileo broadcast ephemeris and the precise ephemeris generated by GalTeC are also used to check key performance parameters. In order to demonstrate the GalTeC performance and the methods mentioned above, the paper presents an initial test result using GPS raw data and GPS broadcast ephemeris. In the tests, some Galileo typical performance parameters are used for GPS system. For example, the maximum URA for one day for one GPS satellite from GPS broadcast ephemeris is used as substitution of SISA to check GPS ephemeris accuracy. Using GalTeC OD&TS and GPS raw data from IGS reference sites, a 10 cm-level of precise orbit determination can be reached. Based on these precise GPS orbits from GalTeC, monitoring and validation of GPS performance can be achieved with a high confidence level. It can be concluded that one of the GalTeC missions is to provide the capability to assess Galileo and general GNSS performance and prediction methods based on a regional and global monitoring networks. Some capability, of which first results are shown in the paper, will be demonstrated further during the planned Galileo IOV phase, the Full Galileo constellation phase and for the different services particularly the Open Services and the Safety Of Life services based on the Galileo Integrity concept.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.10
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• pp.753-761
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• 2019

Localized heavy storm is one of the major causes of flood damage in urban regions. According to the recent disaster statistics in South Korea, the frequency of urban flood is increasing more frequently, and the scale is also increasing. However, localized heavy storm is difficult to predict, making it difficult for local government officials to deal with floods. This study aims to construct a Flood risk matrix (FRM) using ensemble weather prediction data and to assess its applicability as a means of reducing damage by securing time for such urban flood response. The FRM is a two-dimensional matrix of potential impacts (X-axis) representing flood risk and likelihood (Y-axis) representing the occurrence probability of dangerous weather events. To this end, a regional FRM was constructed using historical flood damage records and probability precipitation data for basic municipality in Busan and Daegu. Applicability of the regional FRMs was assessed by applying the LENS data of the Korea Meteorological Administration on past heavy rain events. As a result, it was analyzed that the flood risk could be predicted up to 3 days ago, and it would be helpful to reduce the damage by securing the flood response time in practice.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.38 no.6_3
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• pp.1847-1859
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• 2022

Wildfires in North Korea can have a directly or indirectly affect South Korea if they go south to the Demilitarized Zone. Therefore, this study calculates the regional optimized Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) based on Local Data Assessment and Prediction System (LDAPS) weather data to obtain forest fire risk in North Korea, and applied it to the cases in Goseong-gun and Cheorwon-gun, North Korea in April 2022. As a result, the suitability was confirmed as the FFDI at the time of ignition corresponded to the risk class Extreme and Severe sections, respectively. In addition, a qualitative comparison of the risk map and the soil moisture map before and after the wildfire, the correlation was grasped. A new forest fire risk index that combines drought factors such as soil moisture, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) will be needed in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.55-61
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• 2023

This paper describes the comparative results of measured and predicted values for the horizontal displacement of earth retaining wall based on two field cases, In order to examine the application of lateral earth pressure to the earth retaining wall considering the typical ground characteristics (clinker layer) in Jeju. The prediction of the lateral earth pressure causing the horizontal displacement of the retaining wall was performed by elasto-plastic analysis using Rankine earth pressure, Terzaghi & Peck modified lateral earth pressure, and Tschebotarioff lateral earth pressure. As a result, it was confirmed that the maximum horizontal displacement predicted at site A was about 5 times larger than the measured value, and the ground with maximum horizontal displacement occurred by the prediction was found to be the clinker layer. In the case of site B, the predicted value was 4 to 7 times larger than the measured value. In addition, the ground with maximum horizontal displacement and the tendency of horizontal displacement were very different depending on the prediction method. This means that research on lateral earth pressure that can consider regional characteristics needs to be continued, because it is due to the multi-layered ground characteristics of the Jeju area in which bedrock layers and clinker layers are alternately distributed,

• IE interfaces
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.351-361
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• 2011

Forecasting of electricity demand have difficulty in adapting to abrupt weather changes along with a radical shift in major regional and global climates. This has lead to increasing attention to research on the immediate and accurate forecasting model. Technically, this implies that a model requires only a few input variables all of which are easily obtainable, and its predictive performance is comparable with other competing models. To meet the ends, this paper presents an energy demand forecasting model that uses the variable selection or extraction methods of data mining to select only relevant input variables, and employs support vector regression method for accurate prediction. Also, it proposes a novel performance measure for time-series prediction, shift index, followed by description on preprocessing procedure. A comparative evaluation of the proposed method with other representative data mining models such as an auto-regression model, an artificial neural network model, an ordinary support vector regression model was carried out for obtaining the forecast of monthly electricity demand from 2000 to 2008 based on data provided by Korea Energy Economics Institute. Among the models tested, the proposed method was shown promising results than others.

• International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.163-169
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• 2003

Studies were conducted on the effect of pruning time, host age, conidial dispersal and weather parameters on the incidence and severity of mulberry leaf spot (Myrothecium roridum). The disease severity (%) increased with increase in shoot age irrespective of pruning date. Maximum disease severity was observed in plants pruned during first week of April and minimum disease severity in plants pruned during first week of March. Significant (P ＜ 0.01) influence of date of pruning, shoot age and their interaction was observed on severity of the disease. Apparent infection rate (r) was significantly higher during the plant growth period from day 48 to day 55. Average apparent yale was higher in plants pruned during first week of April and least in plants pruned during first week of July. The disease infection was negatively correlated to distance from the inoculum source. Leaf spot severity (%) was influenced by weather parameters. Multiple regression analysis revealed contribution of various combinations of weather parameters on the disease severity. Linear prediction model $(Y ＝ －81.803＋1.176x_2＋0.765x_3) with significant $R^2$ was developed for prediction of the disease under natural epiphytotic condition.

• Journal of Multimedia Information System
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.195-200
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• 2018

Recently, as the sensor and big data analysis technology have been developed, there have been a lot of researches that analyze the purchase-related data such as the trajectory information and the stay time. Such purchase-related data is usefully used for the purchase pattern prediction and the purchase time prediction. Because it is difficult to find periodic patterns in large-scale human data, it is necessary to look at actual data sets, find various feature patterns, and then apply a machine learning algorithm appropriate to the pattern and purpose. Although existing papers have been used to analyze data using various machine learning methods, there is a lack of statistical analysis such as finding feature patterns before applying the machine learning algorithm. Therefore, we analyze the purchasing data of Songjeong Maeil Market, which is a data gathering place, and finds some characteristic patterns through statistical data analysis. Based on the results of 1, we derive meaningful conclusions by applying the machine learning algorithm and present future research directions. Through the data analysis, it was confirmed that the number of visits was different according to the regional characteristics around Songjeong Maeil Market, and the distribution of time spent by consumers could be grasped.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.10
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• pp.4143-4145
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• 2014

Background: This study used receiver operating characteristic curve to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Ewing sarcoma (ES) outcome data. The aim of this study was to identify and optimize ES-specific survival prediction models and sources of survival disparities. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed socio-economic, staging and treatment factors available in the SEER database for ES. 1844 patients diagnosed between 1973-2009 were used for this study. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a Generalized Linear Model to predict the outcome (bone and joint specific death, yes/no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. Results: The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 74.48 (89.66) months. 36% of the patients were female. The mean (S.D.) age was 18.7 (12) years. The SEER staging has the highest ROC (S.D.) area of 0.616 (0.032) among the factors tested. We simplified the 4-layered risk levels (local, regional, distant, un-staged) to a simpler non-metastatic (I and II) versus metastatic (III) versus un-staged model. The ROC area (S.D.) of the 3-tiered model was 0.612 (0.008). Several other biologic factors were also predictive of ES-specific survival, but not the socio-economic factors tested here. Conclusions: ROC analysis measured and optimized the performance of ES survival prediction models. Optimized models will provide a more efficient way to stratify patients for clinical trials.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.7-15
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• 2010

Analyses of wind wave characteristics near the Korean marginal seas were performed in 2008 and 2009 by comparisons of an operational wind wave forecast model and ocean buoy data. In order to evaluate the model performance, its results were compared with the observed data from an ocean buoy. The model used in this study was very good at predicting the characteristics of wind waves near the Korean Peninsula, with correlation coefficients between the model and observations of over 0.8. The averaged Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for 48 hrs of forecasting between the modeled and observed waves and storm surges/tide were 0.540 m and 0.609 m in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In the spatial and seasonal analysis of wind waves, long waves were found in July and September at the southern coast of Korea in 2008, while in 2009 long waves were found in the winter season at the eastern coast of Korea. Simulated significant wave heights showed evident variations caused by Typhoons in the summer season. When Typhoons Kalmaegi and Morakot in 2008 and 2009 approached to Korean Peninsula, the accuracy of the model predictions was good compared to the annual mean value.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.129-129
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 강수예보의 선행시간을 확보하기 위하여 기상청 지상관측망 자료뿐만 아니라 MTSAT-1R 위성영상자료와 수치예보모형인 RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) 자료를 활용하고, 입력자료 사이의 물리적인 비선형 상관관계를 효과적으로 고려하기 위하여 인경신경망 기법을 적용한 단시간 강수예측모형을 개발하고자 하였다. 또한 강수의 변화특성을 반영하기 위하여 장마기(6월, 7월)와 태풍기(8월, 9월)로 세분화하여 인공신경망 구축을 위한 학습훈련을 수행하였다. 구축된 모형은 서울지점을 대상으로 선행시간 3, 6, 9, 12시간에 대해서 강수예측을 수행하였다. 2006부터 2008년까지 학습훈련 후 2009년 서울지점의 강수예측결과, 장마기의 상관계수는 각 선행시간에 대해서 0.6998, 0.6498, 0.4434, 0.2961, RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)는 0.7605, 2.8431, 3.1973, 4.2147, 태풍기 상관계수는 0.5368, 0.5089, 0.4164, 0.2392, RMSE는 1.2218, 2.3144, 3.9153, 5.2145로 나타났다. 각 선행시간별로 장마기의 예측결과가 태풍기보다 다소 정확하게 도출되었으며, 선행시간 9시간 이후부터는 정확도가 급격히 낮아지는 결과를 얻었다.