• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.103-114
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• 2016

The global trade partners have been diversified and mixed in agricultural market, which is expended the international agri-food market through the Regional Trade Agreement and World Trade Organization, etc. The aim of this study is to derive influential factors for exports increases of agricultural products targeting to Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). We set the equation for agricultural products exports referred to panel gravity model considering panel fixed effect for controlling endogeneity within variables. The results of this study are the follows; (1) Social economic distance considering international oil price negatively affects in the mushroom model; (2) Korean GDP affects (-) in a mushroom model and (+) in a vegetable model, however, ASEAN's per capita GDP indicates opposite influence in the same model; (3) Relative exchange rate shows negative impact in a vegetable model; (4) The entry status into WTO and the status in force of FTA have converse effects in mushroom and vegetable model, respectively.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.128-142
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• 2024

Creation and implementation of export-oriented strategy is an urgent issue of economic development of any country. In an export-oriented model of economic development, exports should be a means of promoting economic growth and a tool to strengthen existing and potential competitive advantages. Agricultural production is the key factor in exports and the source of foreign exchange earnings in many countries. However, the export potential of agricultural producers may be inefficiently fulfilled due to the heterogeneity of countries in terms of economic development, trade relations and border policy. The aim of the research is to study the nature, main trends and problematic aspects of fulfilling the export potential of agricultural production in the context of aggravating food crisis. The study involved general scientific methods (induction and deduction, description, analysis, synthesis, generalization) and special (statistical method, economic analysis, descriptive statistics and interstate comparisons, graphical method). The need to ensure food security by countries around the world urges the importance of the agricultural sector as a catalyst for economic development, sources of foreign exchange earnings, investment direction, etc. The study of agricultural specialization led to the conclusion that wheat and sugar are goods with the highest export potential. It is substantiated that the countries of South America, OECD, North America and Europe have the highest level of realization of export potential of agricultural production, and African countries are import-dependent. In addition, the low export orientation of Africa and Asia due to the peculiarities of their natural and climatic conditions is established based on the assessment of export-import operations in the regional context. The internal and external export potential of each of the regions is analysed. Economic and mathematical simulation of assessing the impact of the most important factors on the wheat exports volumes was applied, which allowed predicting wheat exports volume and making sound management decisions regarding the realization of the export potential of agricultural companies. The inverse correlation between the exports volume and wheat consumption per capita, and the direct correlation between the effective size and area of land used for wheat cultivation was established through the correlation and regression analysis.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.1-16
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• 2018

The standard shift-share analysis decomposes a region's sectoral growth into three components: national, industry-mix, and regional-shift effects. Nevertheless, the three components of the traditional shift-share are not related to the behavior of the regional economies that are neighbors of the region under analysis. We incorporate a spatial structure within this basic formulation, and consider spatial interaction in the decomposition analysis. Daesan Port's export grew steadily at an annualized average rate of 4.0% during 2011-2017, and its rank, in terms of export performance, was 13 in 2010; this rose to 6 in 2016, then declined slightly to 7 in 2017 before reaching 6 as of June, 2018. However, not all ports have a similar growth path. The Onsan Port's share declined from 27.4% in 2011 to 21.0% to 2017, whereas the share of petroleum product exports of Daesan Port increased rapidly, from approximately 8.5% in 2011 to 16.0% in 2017. The standard shift-share analysis shows that petroleum products and basic petrochemicals have a positive regional in dustry-mix effect, but petrochemistry materials and synthetic resins have a negative sign, indicating that the former's exports grow faster than national export, while the increase of the latter's export is slower than national one. The spatial shift-share model indicates that for both petroleum products and basic petrochemicals, Incheon and Ulsan Ports have a positive value for the neighbor-nation regional shift effect and a positive value for the region-neighbor regional shift effect. This paper also shows that Yeosu Port for petroleum products; Ulsan Port for basic petrochemicals; Ulsan, Onsan and Yeosu Ports for petrochemistry materials; and Ulsan, Busan, and Incheon Ports for synthetic resins have a positive value for the neighbor-nation regional shift effect but a negative value for the region-neighbor regional shift effect.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.69-88
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• 2022

This paper aims to predict Busan's regional product and employment using the logistic regression models and machine learning models. The following are the main findings of the empirical analysis. First, the OLS regression model shows that the main industries such as electricity and electronics, machine and transport, and finance and insurance affect the Busan's income positively. Second, the binomial logistic regression models show that the Busan's strategic industries such as the future transport machinery, life-care, and smart marine industries contribute on the Busan's income in large order. Third, the multinomial logistic regression models show that the Korea's main industries such as the precise machinery, transport equipment, and machinery influence the Busan's economy positively. And Korea's exports and the depreciation can affect Busan's economy more positively at the higher employment level. Fourth, the voting ensemble model show the higher predictive power than artificial neural network model and support vector machine models. Furthermore, the gradient boosting model and the random forest show the higher predictive power than the voting model in large order.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.5-29
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• 2018

Models of South-North Korean economic integration have the problem of circular reasoning. While many studies argue that South-North Korean economic integration would contribute to alleviate security risks in the Korean peninsular, they emphasize the success of any economic model of inter-Korean economic integration is subject to favorable geo-political and security environment. It is a failure in distinguishing between goals and constraints. After identifying three major goals of South-North Korean economic cooperation, this study shows the trilemma among the goals; they are 1) formation of a complete economic community, 2) maintaining independent sovereignty of the two Koreas, 3) promotion of mutual economic interests. The trilemma suggests that it is theoretically impossible to achieve the above three goals at the same time. Only two goals are achievable simultaneously. This study argues that the most practical option is to pursue the combination of goals 2) and 3) considering the complex political and security environment around the Korean peninsular. Recognizing that North Korea is the least developed country in the Northeast Asia region, South Korea's initiatives for inter-Korean economic cooperation should focus on assisting industrialization and integration of the North Korea economy into the Northeast Asian regional production sharing structure. In view of the 'flying geese model' of the sequential industrialization in the region, the least developed economic status of North Korea can partially be explained by its failure to participate in the production network in the region as well as lack of effective implementation of appropriate industrial policy. Therefore, promotion of industrialization of North Korea should be the immediate goal of economic cooperation between North and South Korea. It is an interesting fact that North Korea has rapidly expanded its apparel exports in recent years. It could mean that the North Korean economy is actively responding to the dynamics of international comparative advantage structure, although the production activities are limited to exports to China since the closure of the Gaesung Industrial Complex. The recent increase in apparel export is a starting point for incorporating the Easy Import Substitution fulfilling both domestic and neighboring regional demand of North Korea. It could help integrate North Korea's industry into the production network of Northeast Asia. An immediate policy implication is that the economic cooperation between the two Koreas should focus on facilitating this process and supporting North Korea's industrial policy through South Korea's contribution of capital, technology, and service intermediary inputs.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.311-329
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• 2019

Since China's opening to international trade, the rapid growth of the country's export sector has been coupled by an intensification of migratory outflows of ethnic Chinese. The literature has already stressed the beneficial role of migration in enhancing bilateral trade. The present paper applies a gravity model in order to capture the impact of migration on Chinese exports for a relatively long period of time (1995-2017) where significant developments take place. We estimated four regressions, each of them confirming the positive network effects of migration for boosting export growth. Apart from the main finding, it appears that the role of institutional and geographical proximity can prove to be complementary for trade enhancement. The results finally suggest mixed effects due to the countries' import openness, indicating that China's free trade agreements acts as a substitute for smoothing trade competition from third countries.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.147-160
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• 2022

This study aim to use the GTAP model to analyze the impact of RCEP Fermentation in the Korean manufacturing industry by quantifying the RCEP tariff commitment table. The research results show RCEP has boosted output in all sub-manufactures except wood and printed matter due to increased export volumes. Wood products, on the other hand, are more reliant on imports due to lower production due to lower domestic sales or overall exports. After RCEP came into effect, the import and export scale of Korea's manufacturing industry expanded effectively. Among them, the positive impact on the intensive low-tech manufacturing industries such as clothing and leather products, wood products and printing products, and food, beverage and tobacco products is greater than the positive impact on the technology-intensive medium and high-tech and high-tech manufacturing industries. And found that the growth rate of Korea's manufacturing trade is basically proportional to the tax reduction rate of RCEP. Finally, in order to promote the development of the manufacturing industry, some suggestions are put forward that need the government's policy support and strengthen the regional cooperation with RCEP member countries.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.71-80
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• 2009

Although desire for living without hazardous damages grows these days, threats from natural disasters which we are currently exposed to are quiet different from what we have experienced. To cope with this changing situation, it is necessary to assess the characteristics of the natural disasters. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to suggest a methodology to estimate the potential property loss and assess the flood risk using a regional regression analysis. Since the flood damage mainly consists of loss of lives and property damages, it is reasonable to express the results of a flood risk assessment with the loss of lives and the property damages that are vulnerable to flood. The regional regression analysis has been commonly used to find relationships between regional characteristics of a watershed and parameters of rainfall-runoff models or probability distribution models. In our research, however, this model is applied to estimate the potential flood damage as follows; 1) a nonlinear model between the flood damage and the hourly rainfall is found in gauged regions which have sufficient damage and rainfall data, and 2) a regression model is developed from the relationship between the coefficients of the nonlinear models and socio-economic indicators in the gauged regions. This method enables us to quantitatively analyze the impact of the regional indicators on the flood damage and to estimate the damage through the application of the regional regression model to ungauged regions which do not have sufficient data. Moreover the flood risk map is developed by Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) which is equal to the ratio of the estimated flood damage to the total regional property. Comparing the results of this research with Potential Flood Damage (PFD) reported in the Long-term Korea National Water Resources Plan, the exports' mistaken opinions could affect the weighting procedure of PFD, but the proposed approach based on the regional regression would overcome the drawback of PFD. It was found that FVI is highly correlated with the past damage, while PFD does not reflect the regional vulnerabilities.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.108-131
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• 2021

The increase of international trade across countries and borders results in increased risks associated with the inflow of new pests and diseases. These risks are likely to be increased more rapidly due to climate change. Some countries implement strict regulations on imports to prevent these risks and protect biosecurity, food safety, and public health. However, the problems arise when the diseases and pests are found in a country where their economic structure largely depends on agricultural exports and cause ripple effects on other industries and ecosystems. Therefore, establishing an effective quarantine system is essential to protect and recover from the damage caused by non-native diseases and pests. This study's objectives are 1) analyzing the agricultural policies relate to the quarantine system on diseases and pests in Korea, 2) evaluating the Korea plant quarantine system's value, and 3) simulating plant quarantine policy strategies. We estimated the Korean quarantine system's benefits on diseases and pests to reach these objectives. The benefits are measured with a willingness to pay from respondents surveyed by the contingent valuation method (CVM). The CVM approach directly asks people how much they would willingly pay for food security. Finally, the Korean quarantine system's values are simulated with several policy scenarios and different scales of infection at the regional level. The results of this study can deliver policy implications on the quarantine system innovation in developing countries including Asia.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.769-777
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• 2023

Globalization has brought about rapid economic, technological, and cultural changes. In order for countries around the world to communicate, recognize and understand globalization, creativity or planning ability can be used to code. In this paper, we would like to present and prove a data analysis that can solve world problems. In the global market, the value of goods or services increases with connectivity. This connection is becoming one of the factors that increase the value of culture. Changes taking this into account promoted cultural spread and innovative growth, and increased productivity and competitiveness in each region of the world. This paper compares the income of the middle class in the United States on the impact of globalization and anti-globalization on cultural spread and innovative growth. Globalization has created an environment in which various elements of K-culture can interact and spread. Through the Internet, social media, and international travel, globalization has had a positive impact on Korea's innovative growth. In areas such as economic activity, technological innovation, and creative industries, globalization has facilitated new tech and approaches, Through this, it changed the existing economic model and contributed to exports K-culture with a new middle class model. However, globalization in the cultural industry can result in the loss of regional characteristics & individuality, which can lead to the middle class cultural unification and alienation(chasm). As a result of the empirical analysis of K-exports for the middle income in the United States, cultural diffusion and innovation must be developed even in anti-globalization. With these industrial changes the soft power value of the Korean Wave proves that it can create value for use for the middle class of major exporting countries.