• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.123-139
• /
• 2019

The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
• /
• v.12 no.5
• /
• pp.19-32
• /
• 2007

In Korea, there have been various methods of estimating groundwater recharge which generally can be subdivided into three types: baseflow separation method by means of groundwater recession curve, water budget analysis based on lumped conceptual model in watershed, and water table fluctuation method (WTF) by using the data from groundwater monitoring wells. However, groundwater recharge rate shows the spatial-temporal variability due to climatic condition, land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity, so these methods have various limits to deal with these characteristics. To overcome these limitations, we present a new method of estimating recharge based on water balance components from the SWAT-MODFLOW which is an integrated surface-ground water model. Groundwater levels in the interest area close to the stream have dynamics similar to stream flow, whereas levels further upslope respond to precipitation with a delay. As these behaviours are related to the physical process of recharge, it is needed to account for the time delay in aquifer recharge once the water exits the soil profile to represent these features. In SWAT, a single linear reservoir storage module with an exponential decay weighting function is used to compute the recharge from soil to aquifer on a given day. However, this module has some limitations expressing recharge variation when the delay time is too long and transient recharge trend does not match to the groundwater table time series, the multi-reservoir storage routing module which represents more realistic time delay through vadose zone is newly suggested in this study. In this module, the parameter related to the delay time should be optimized by checking the correlation between simulated recharge and observed groundwater levels. The final step of this procedure is to compare simulated groundwater table with observed one as well as to compare simulated watershed runoff with observed one. This method is applied to Mihocheon watershed in Korea for the purpose of testing the procedure of proper estimation of spatio-temporal groundwater recharge distribution. As the newly suggested method of estimating recharge has the advantages of effectiveness of watershed model as well as the accuracy of WTF method, the estimated daily recharge rate would be an advanced quantity reflecting the heterogeneity of hydrogeology, climatic condition, land use as well as physical behaviour of water in soil layers and aquifers.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
• /
• v.35 no.4
• /
• pp.464-472
• /
• 2002

This study was conducted to investigate dietary and other factors affecting bone mineral density in young Korean collage women. Thirty subjects were recruited; the mean age was 22.1 years and the mean age at menarche was 12.6 years. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured in the spine (LS), femoral neck (FN), ward's triangle (WT), and femoral trochanter (FT) by Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA), and physical activity was assessed by a questionnaire. Dietary intake data were obtained 8 times by using a 24 hour recall method to evaluate the subjects' usual diet. Bone mineral densities of lumbar spine, femoral neck, ward's triangle and femoral trochanter were 1.149 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$, 0.980 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$, 0.936 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$ and 0.759 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$ respectively. The met energy intake of subjects was 1,790 kcal, and calcium and iron intakes were found to be inadequate compared to the Korean RDA. The BMD of the lumbar spine was significantly and positively related to the BMI and intake of vitamin C, carbohydrate, potatoes, fruits and plant food. The BMD of the femur (FN, WT, FT) was positively related to the BMI, to carbohydrate and fruit intake, and to the percentage of plant food in total food intake. Multiple recession analysis showed that fruit intake was significantly related to the BMD of the LS. The subjects'ages and fruit intakes were significantly related to the BMD of the femur (FN, WT, FT). These results indicate that higher fruit intakes may have a beneficial effect on bone mineral density.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.9 no.3
• /
• pp.155-164
• /
• 1997

A comprehensive and systematic field monitoring program was initiated since October 1989, in order to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position at northern part of Pea Island, North Carolina. Aerial photographs were taken every two months on the shoreline extending from the US Coast Guard Station at the northern end of Pea Island to a point 6 miles to the south. Aerial photographs taken were digitized initially to obtain the shoreline position data. in which a wet-dry line visible on the beach was used to identify the position of shoreline. Since the wet-dry line does not represent the “true" shoreline .position but includes the errors due to the variations of wave run-up heights and tidal elevations at the time the photos taken, it is required to eliminate the tide and wave runup effects from the initially digitized shoreline .position data. Runup heights on the beach and tidal elevations at the time the aerial photographs taken were estimated using tide data collected at the end of the FRF pier and wave data measured from wave-rider gage installed at 4 km offshore, respectively A runup formula by Hunt (1957) was used to compute the run-up heights on the beach from the given deepwater wave conditions. With shoreline position data corrected for .wave runup and tide, both spatial and temporal variations of the shoreline positions for the monitoring shoreline were analyzed by examining local differences in shoreline movement and their time dependent variability. Six years data of one-mile-average shoreline indicated that there was an apparent seasonal variation of shoreline, that is, progradation of shoreline at summer (August) and recession at winter (February) at Pea Island. which was unclear with the uncorrected shoreline position data. Determination of shoreline position from aerial photograph, without regard to the effects of wave runup and tide, can lead to mis-interpretation for the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline changes.nges.

• Management & Information Systems Review
• /
• v.34 no.3
• /
• pp.17-39
• /
• 2015

This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
• /
• v.16 no.5
• /
• pp.125-141
• /
• 2021

The rapidly changing social structure of the digital environment is having a significant impact on economic activities. That is also an important issue for Individuals who want to sustain economic activities and countries that support policies. Non-face-to-face industries have been revitalized due to the problem of human capital utilization attributed to aging population, the real economic recession caused by Corona 19, contraction of face-to-face economic activities, reduction of employment, and job instability. Accordingly, digital media contents based economic activities have become commonplace, and the government's main policy issue is to use human capital effectively for media contents based economic activities. Adaptation to the digital environment has become a necessity, not a choice, for those who wish to continue to be in employment. Therefore, this study analyzed the effects of digital and individual abilities on intention to sustain the economic activity and verified the modulation effect of the role model. In order to achieve the purpose of this research, an online survey was conducted on men and women aged 20 to 80 nationwide, and 382 of the 385 collected questionaires were analyzed. The SPSS 23.0 program was used to analyze this study, and the questionaire questions were measured using the Likert 5-point scale. As a result of the analysis, first, the ability to utilize media contents in digital capacity has a positive impact on the intention to sustain economic activity, and that the higher the ability to utilize the latest digital media contents such as SNS, the more likely the intention to sustain economic activity. Secondly, it was found that the financial strength of individuals' abilities was affected by the negative impact, and that the experiences were affected by positive(+) impact on the intention to sustain economic activity. Thirdly, the social environment has no significant effect on the intention to sustain economic activity. Fourth, it was found that family support amongst social support has a positive impact on the intention to sustain economic activity, and that various emotional support for families has increased intention to sustain economic activity. Fifth, the role model was found to have a positive(+) impact on economic sustainability, while the ability to utilize media content and family support played a modulating role on economic sustainability. Therefore, as a result of this research, the government's policy support for employment and entrepreneurship is required in accordance with digital media content based digital education and human structure in order to sustain economic activities.

• Asia Marketing Journal
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.103-134
• /
• 2011

The recent economic recession and price rise reduces excessive consumption as a whole. So companies take more interest in and use discount coupons as a means of sales promotion to reinforce their competitiveness. The combination of Internet and mobile communication technology leads to an explosive increase in the use of mobile Internet service, which promotes commercialization of mobile coupons. Nevertheless, there are absolutely insufficient researches on mobile coupons than those on paper ones. In this context, this study tries to consider intention of accepting and using mobile coupons. The innovated Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used to see factors of using mobile coupons considered important by customers. Through the combination of characteristics of mobile coupon service and values obtained from mobile coupons, effects of variables to enhance intention of using mobile coupons were empirically analyzed. In particular, this study suggested importance of psychological as well as economic values of mobile coupons and emphasized good considerations of the psychological aspect, such as shame, stinginess, and reputation sensitivity, in using mobile coupons as an important factor for intention of using the coupons. Another empirical analysis was made of what moderating roles consumers' self-construalplayed in the effects of mobile coupon values perceived by consumers on intention of using coupons. As a result, immediate connectivity and situational provision among characteristics of mobile coupon service were found to affect ease and usability. It was also shown that perceived ease and usability had significant effects on both economic and psychological values, which then had significant effects on intention of using a mobile system. After testing moderating effects of self-construal, the degree of effects of perceived mobile coupon values on intention of using mobile coupons was greater among inter-dependent self-construal users than among independent ones. This study considered various schemes of improving intention to use mobile coupons and provided a foundation to help companies make a strategy for mobile coupons to be activated in the future.

• Journal of Distribution Research
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.55-80
• /
• 2012

I. Introduction Developing the relationships between companies is very important issue to ensure a competitive advantage in today's business environment (Bleeke & Ernst 1991; Mohr & Spekman 1994; Powell 1990). Partnerships between companies are based on having same goals, pursuing mutual understanding, and having a professional level of interdependence. By having such a partnerships and cooperative efforts between companies, they will achieve efficiency and effectiveness of their business (Mohr and Spekman, 1994). However, it is difficult to expect these ideal results only in the B2B corporate transaction. According to agency theory which is the well-accepted theory in various fields of business strategy, organization, and marketing, the two independent companies have fundamentally different corporate purposes. Also there is a higher chance of developing opportunism and conflict due to natures of human(organization), such as self-interest, bounded rationality, risk aversion, and environment factor as imbalance of information (Eisenhardt 1989). That is, especially partnerships between principal(or buyer) and agent(or supplier) of companies within supply chain, the business contract itself will not provide competitive advantage. But managing partnership between companies is the key to success. Therefore, managing partnership between manufacturer and supplier, and finding causes of conflict are essential to improve B2B performance. In conclusion, based on prior researches and Agency theory, this study will clarify how business hazards cause conflicts on supply chain and then identify how developed conflicts have been managed by two control mechanisms. II. Research model III. Method In order to validate our research model, this study gathered questionnaires from small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs). In Korea, SMEs mean the firms whose employee is under 300 and capital is under 8 billion won(about 7.2 million dollar). We asked the manufacturer's perception about the relationship with the biggest supplier, and our key informants are denied to a person responsible for buying(ex)CEO, executives, managers of purchasing department, and so on). In detail, we contact by telephone to our initial sample(about 1,200 firms) and introduce our research motivation and send our questionnaires by e-mail, mail, and direct survey. Finally we received 361 data and eliminate 32 inappropriate questionnaires. We use 329 manufactures' data on analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify the anticipant role of business hazard (environmental dynamism, asset specificity) and investigate the moderating effect of control mechanism(formal control, social control) on conflict-performance relationship. To find out moderating effect of control methods, we need to compare the regression weight between low versus. high group(about level of exercised control methods). Therefore we choose the structural equation modeling method that is proper to do multi-group analysis. The data analysis is performed by AMOS 17.0 software, and model fits are good statically (CMIN/DF=1.982, p<.000, CFI=.936, IFI=.937, RMSEA=.056). IV. Result V. Discussion Results show that the higher environmental dynamism and asset specificity(on particular supplier) buyer(manufacturer) has, the more B2B conflict exists. And this conflict affect relationship quality and financial outcomes negatively. In addition, social control and formal control could weaken the negative effect of conflict on relationship quality significantly. However, unlikely to assure conflict resolution effect of control mechanisms on relationship quality, financial outcomes are changed by neither social control nor formal control. We could explain this results with the characteristics of our sample, SMEs(Small and Medium sized Enterprises). Financial outcomes of these SMEs(manufacturer or principal) are affected by their customer(usually major company) more easily than their supplier(or agent). And, in recent few years, most of companies have suffered from financial problems because of global economic recession. It means that it is hard to evaluate the contribution of supplier(agent). Therefore we also support the suggestion of Gladstein(1984), Poppo & Zenger(2002) that relational performance variable can capture the focal outcomes of relationship(exchange) better than financial performance variable. This study has some implications that it tests the sources of conflict and investigates the effect of resolution methods of B2B conflict empirically. And, especially, it finds out the significant moderating effect of formal control which past B2B management studies have ignored in Korea.