• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.171-176
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• 2007

To give a guarantee a consistently high level of quality and reliability of Telematics traffic service, traffic flow forecasting is very important issue. In this paper, we proposed an adaptable integrated prediction model to predict the traffic flow in the future. Our model combines two methods, short-term prediction model and long-term prediction model with different combining coefficients to reflect current traffic condition. Short-term model uses the Kalman filtering technique to predict the future traffic conditions. And long-term model processes accumulated speed patterns which means the analysis results for all past speeds of each road by classifying the same day and the same time interval. Combining two models makes it possible to predict future traffic flow with higher accuracy over a longer time range. Many experiments showed our algorithm gives a better precise prediction than only an accumulated speed pattern that is used commonly. The result can be applied to the car navigation to support a dynamic shortest path. In addition, it can give users the travel information to avoid the traffic congestion areas.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.15-15
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• 2011

The radar observation system in Japan is operated by two governmental groups: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) of Japan. The JMA radar observation network is comprised of 20 C-band radars (with a wavelength of 5.6 cm), which cover most of the Japan Islands and observe rainfall intensity and distribution. And the MLIT's radar observation system is composed of 26 C-band radars throughout Japan. The observed radar echo from each radar unit is first modified, and then sent to the National Bureau of Synthesis Process within the MLIT. Through several steps for homogenizing observation accuracy, including distance and elevation correction, synthesized rainfall intensity maps for the entire nation of Japan are generated every 5 minutes. The MLIT has recently launched a new radar observation network system designed for flash flood observation and forecasting in small river basins within urban areas. It is called the X-band multi parameter radar network, and is distinguished by its dual polarimetric wave pulses of short length (3cm). Attenuation problems resulting from the short wave length of radar echo are strengthened by polarimetric wavelengths and very dense radar networks. Currently, the network is established within four areas. Each area is observed using 3-4 X-band radars with very fine resolution in spatial (250 m) and temporal (1 minute intervals). This study provides a series of utilization procedures for the new input data into a real-time forecasting system. First of all, the accuracy of the X-band radar observation was determined by comparing its results with the rainfall intensities as observed by ground gauge stations. It was also compared with conventional C-band radar observation. The rainfall information from the new radar network was then provided to a distributed hydrologic model to simulate river discharges. The simulated river discharges were evaluated again using the observed river discharge to estimate the applicability of the new observation network in the context of operations regarding flood forecasting. It was able to determine that the newly equipped X-band polarimetric radar network shows somewhat improved observation accuracy compared to conventional C-band radar observation. However, it has a tendency to underestimate the rainfall, and the accuracy is not always superior to that of the C-band radar. The accuracy evaluation of the X-band radar observation in this study was conducted using only limited rainfall events, and more cases should be examined for developing a broader understanding of the general behavior of the X-band radar and for improving observation accuracy.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.25-39
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• 2008

The objective of this study is to forecast the operational continuous ability using Artificial Neural Networks in battalion defensive operation for the commander decision making support. The forecasting of the combat result is one of the most complex issue in military science. However, it is difficult to formulate a mathematical model to evaluate the combat power of a battalion in defensive operation since there are so many parameters and high temporal and spatial variability among variables. So in this study, we used company combat power level data in Battalion Command in Battle Training as input data and used Feed-Forward Multilayer Perceptrons(MLP) and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) to evaluate operational continuous ability. The results show 82.62%, 85.48% of forecasting ability in spite of non-linear interactions among variables. We think that GRNN is a suitable technique for real-time commander's decision making and evaluation of the commitment priority of troops in reserve.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.25 no.8
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• pp.1005-1012
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• 2021

Recently, the use of various location-based services-based location information systems using maps on the web has been expanding, and there is a need for a monitoring system that can check power demand in real time as an alternative to energy saving. In this study, we developed a deep learning real-time virtual power demand prediction web system using open source-based mapping service to analyze and predict the characteristics of power demand data using deep learning. In particular, the proposed system uses the LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory) deep learning model to enable power demand and predictive analysis locally, and provides visualization of analyzed information. Future proposed systems will not only be utilized to identify and analyze the supply and demand and forecast status of energy by region, but also apply to other industrial energies.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.19-27
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• 2022

Across the world, 'housing' comprises a significant portion of wealth and assets. For this reason, fluctuations in real estate prices are highly sensitive issues to individual households. In Korea, housing prices have steadily increased over the years, and thus many Koreans view the real estate market as an effective channel for their investments. However, if one purchases a real estate property for the purpose of investing, then there are several risks involved when prices begin to fluctuate. The purpose of this study is to design a real estate price 'return rate' prediction model to help mitigate the risks involved with real estate investments and promote reasonable real estate purchases. Various approaches are explored to develop a model capable of predicting real estate prices based on an understanding of the immovability of the real estate market. This study employs the LSTM method, which is based on artificial intelligence and deep learning, to predict real estate prices and validate the model. LSTM networks are based on recurrent neural networks (RNN) but add cell states (which act as a type of conveyer belt) to the hidden states. LSTM networks are able to obtain cell states and hidden states in a recursive manner. Data on the actual trading prices of apartments in autonomous districts between January 2006 and December 2019 are collected from the Actual Trading Price Disclosure System of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT). Additionally, basic data on apartments and commercial buildings are collected from the Public Data Portal and Seoul Metropolitan Government's data portal. The collected actual trading price data are scaled to monthly average trading amounts, and each data entry is pre-processed according to address to produce 168 data entries. An LSTM model for return rate prediction is prepared based on a time series dataset where the training period is set as April 2015~August 2017 (29 months), the validation period is set as September 2017~September 2018 (13 months), and the test period is set as December 2018~December 2019 (13 months). The results of the return rate prediction study are as follows. First, the model achieved a prediction similarity level of almost 76%. After collecting time series data and preparing the final prediction model, it was confirmed that 76% of models could be achieved. All in all, the results demonstrate the reliability of the LSTM-based model for return rate prediction.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.43-53
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• 2023

In this detailed and comprehensive study, our primary focus has been placed on accurately gauging the number of visitors and their real-time locations in commercial spaces. Particularly, in a real cafe, using security cameras, we have developed a system that can offer live updates on available seating and predict future congestion levels. By employing YOLO, a real-time object detection and tracking algorithm, the number of visitors and their respective locations in real-time are also monitored. This information is then used to update a cafe's indoor map, thereby enabling users to easily identify available seating. Moreover, we developed a model that predicts the congestion of a cafe in real time. The sophisticated model, designed to learn visitor count and movement patterns over diverse time intervals, is based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) to address the vanishing gradient problem and Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2Seq) for processing data with temporal relationships. This innovative system has the potential to significantly improve cafe management efficiency and customer satisfaction by delivering reliable predictions of cafe congestion to all users. Our groundbreaking research not only demonstrates the effectiveness and utility of indoor location tracking technology implemented through security cameras but also proposes potential applications in other commercial spaces.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.110-122
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• 2020

Many companies make considerable efforts in implementing supply chain management systems to increase their competitiveness. In particular, there are significant investments in their ICT (Information and Communication Technology) and supply chain. However, considerable diversity exists in how well firms have been able to assimilate ICT and leverage the business value of it. In addition, studies on supply chains, particularly Real Time Enterprise (RTE) competence, which is cited for rapid information sharing and dynamic capabilities for each role in the supply chain, are insufficient. The purpose of this paper is to explore and evaluate effect of ICT utilization capabilities, including 'ICT internal cooperative capabilities' and 'ICT operational flexibility capabilities', on RTE capabilities (flexibility, visibility and prediction) and supply chain performance. To validate the research model proposed in the study, survey was conducted on companies using ICT along the supply chain of manufacturing industries. 216 data were used, SPSS and AMOS were used for the analysis methods. Study results showed that ICT internal collaboration capabilities affect agility, one of RTE capabilities, but not visibility and prediction, and ICT operational flexibility capabilities have affected all three RTE capacities. And, RTE capabilities had a huge impact on supply chain performance as expected. In this paper, it has been found that the ICT capabilities in manufacturing are an important factor in improving RTE capabilities that are important in the supply chain and improving the performance of the supply chain.

• Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.173-183
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• 2009

We present a real-time monitoring system for detecting anomalous network events using the entropy. The entropy accounts for the effects of disorder in the system. When an abnormal factor arises to agitate the current system the entropy must show an abrupt change. In this paper we deliberately model the Internet to measure the entropy. Packets flowing between these two networks may incur to sustain the current value. In the proposed system we keep track of the value of entropy in time to pinpoint the sudden changes in the value. The time-series data of entropy are transformed into the two-dimensional domains to help visually inspect the activities on the network. We examine the system using network traffic traces containing notorious worms and DoS attacks on the testbed. Furthermore, we compare our proposed system of time series forecasting method, such as EWMA, holt-winters, and PCA in terms of sensitive. The result suggests that our approach be able to detect anomalies with the fairly high accuracy. Our contributions are two folds: (1) highly sensitive detection of anomalies and (2) visualization of network activities to alert anomalies.

• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.6 no.7
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• pp.297-306
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• 2017

Citizens want more accurate forecast information using Bus Information System. However, most bus information systems that use an average based short-term prediction algorithm include many errors because they do not consider the effects of the traffic flow, signal period, and halting time. In this paper, we try to improve the precision of forecast information by analyzing the influencing factors of the error, thereby making the convenience of the citizens. We analyzed the influence factors of the error using BIS data. It is shown in the analyzed data that the effects of the time characteristics and geographical conditions are mixed, and that effects on halting time and passes speed is different. Therefore, the halt time is constructed using Generalized Additive Model with explanatory variable such as hour, GPS coordinate and number of routes, and we used Hidden Markov Model to construct a pattern considering the influence of traffic flow on the unit section. As a result of the pattern construction, accurate real-time forecasting and long-term prediction of route travel time were possible. Finally, it is shown that this model is suitable for travel time prediction through statistical test between observed data and predicted data. As a result of this paper, we can provide more precise forecast information to the citizens, and we think that long-term forecasting can play an important role in decision making such as route scheduling.

• Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.73-78
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• 2003

In this research, we implement Realtime Air Diffusion Prediction System which is a parallel Fortran model running on distributed-memory parallel computers. The system is designed for air diffusion simulations with four-dimensional data assimilation. For regional air quality forecasting a series of dynamic downscaling technique is adopted using the NCAR/Penn. State MM5 model which is an atmospheric model. The realtime initial data have been provided daily from the KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) global spectral model output. It takes huge resources of computation to get 24 hour air quality forecast with this four step dynamic downscaling (27km, 9km, 3km, and lkm). Parallel implementation of the realtime system is imperative to achieve increased throughput since the realtime system have to be performed which correct timing behavior and the sequential code requires a large amount of CPU time for typical simulations. The parallel system uses MPI (Message Passing Interface), a standard library to support high-level routines for message passing. We validate the parallel model by comparing it with the sequential model. For realtime running, we implement a cluster computer which is a distributed-memory parallel computer that links high-performance PCs with high-speed interconnection networks. We use 32 2-CPU nodes and a Myrinet network for the cluster. Since cluster computers more cost effective than conventional distributed parallel computers, we can build a dedicated realtime computer. The system also includes web based Gill (Graphic User Interface) for convenient system management and performance monitoring so that end-users can restart the system easily when the system faults. Performance of the parallel model is analyzed by comparing its execution time with the sequential model, and by calculating communication overhead and load imbalance, which are common problems in parallel processing. Performance analysis is carried out on our cluster which has 32 2-CPU nodes.