• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real options model

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Analysis of Value for Ownership Conversion in the Public Rental Housing REITs According to Real Option Scenarios Reflecting Macroeconomic Variables (거시경제변수를 반영한 실물옵션 시나리오별 공공임대주택리츠 분양전환 가치 분석)

  • XUAN, Meiyu;Jang, Mi Kyoung;QUAN, Junlong;Kim, JuHyong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.74-83
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    • 2017
  • The recently introduced public rental housing REITs was just different the business structure from the existing public rental housing system and the basic supply system is the same. So the ownership conversion for public house over 10 years rental duration is possible after half of the obligated rental duration according to the agreement between lessor and lessee. However rental business operators are likely to have a negative attitude to the early ownership conversion because of less expected profit. Thus, there is a need for an analysis of proper early ownership conversion moment that can achieve public purposes while ensuring the profitability of public rental housing REITs. In this study, the characteristics of the ownership conversion rights that can lessee to exercise considered to be options. Also the nature of 'REITs', 'public rental housing REITs' is considered to be affected by the macroeconomic variables. Thus, this study analyzed the value for ownership conversion in the public rental housing REITs according to real option scenarios reflecting macroeconomic variables. As a result, according to the change of the variation rate of the macroeconomic variables, it was found that with adjustable early ownership conversion time using the DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) model. Therefore, it is possible to ensure profitability of early ownership conversion by predicting the variation of variables.

Production of Farm-level Agro-information for Adaptation to Climate Change (기후변화 대응을 위한 농장수준 농업정보 생산)

  • Moon, Kyung Hwan;Seo, Hyeong Ho;Shin, Min Ji;Song, Eung Young;Oh, Soonja
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.158-166
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    • 2019
  • Implementing proper land management techniques, such as selecting the best crops and applying the best cultivation techniques at the farm level, is an effective way for farmers to adapt to climate change. Also it will be helpful if the farmer can get the information of agro-weather and the growth status of cultivating crops in real time and the simulated results of applying optional technologies. To test this, a system (web site) was developed to produce agro-weather data and crop growth information of farms by combining agricultural climate maps and crop growth modeling techniques to highland area for summer-season Chinese cabbage production. The system has been shown to be a viable tool for producing farm-level information and providing it directly to farmers. Further improvements will be required in the speed of information access, the microclimate models for some meteorological factors, and the crop growth models to test different options.

Interactions between Soil Moisture and Weather Prediction in Rainfall-Runoff Application : Korea Land Data Assimilation System(KLDAS) (수리 모형을 이용한 Korea Land Data Assimilation System (KLDAS) 자료의 수문자료에 대한 영향력 분석)

  • Jung, Yong;Choi, Minha
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.172-172
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    • 2011
  • The interaction between land surface and atmosphere is essentially affected by hydrometeorological variables including soil moisture. Accurate estimation of soil moisture at spatial and temporal scales is crucial to better understand its roles to the weather systems. The KLDAS(Korea Land Data Assimilation System) is a regional, specifically Korea peninsula land surface information systems. As other prior land data assimilation systems, this can provide initial soil field information which can be used in atmospheric simulations. For this study, as an enabling high-resolution tool, weather research and forecasting(WRF-ARW) model is applied to produce precipitation data using GFS(Global Forecast System) with GFS embedded and KLDAS soil moisture information as initialization data. WRF-ARW generates precipitation data for a specific region using different parameters in physics options. The produced precipitation data will be employed for simulations of Hydrological Models such as HEC(Hydrologic Engineering Center) - HMS(Hydrologic Modeling System) as predefined input data for selected regional water responses. The purpose of this study is to show the impact of a hydrometeorological variable such as soil moisture in KLDAS on hydrological consequences in Korea peninsula. The study region, Chongmi River Basin, is located in the center of Korea Peninsular. This has 60.8Km river length and 17.01% slope. This region mostly consists of farming field however the chosen study area placed in mountainous area. The length of river basin perimeter is 185Km and the average width of river is 9.53 meter with 676 meter highest elevation in this region. We have four different observation locations : Sulsung, Taepyung, Samjook, and Sangkeug observatoriesn, This watershed is selected as a tentative research location and continuously studied for getting hydrological effects from land surface information. Simulations for a real regional storm case(June 17~ June 25, 2006) are executed. WRF-ARW for this case study used WSM6 as a micro physics, Kain-Fritcsch Scheme for cumulus scheme, and YSU scheme for planetary boundary layer. The results of WRF simulations generate excellent precipitation data in terms of peak precipitation and date, and the pattern of daily precipitation for four locations. For Sankeug observatory, WRF overestimated precipitation approximately 100 mm/day on July 17, 2006. Taepyung and Samjook display that WRF produced either with KLDAS or with GFS embedded initial soil moisture data higher precipitation amounts compared to observation. Results and discussions in detail on accuracy of prediction using formerly mentioned manners are going to be presented in 2011 Annual Conference of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation.

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Feed Resources for Animals in Asia: Issues, Strategies for Use, Intensification and Integration for Increased Productivity

  • Devendra, C.;Leng, R.A.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.303-321
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    • 2011
  • The availability and efficient use of the feed resources in Asia are the primary drivers of performance to maximise productivity from animals. Feed security is fundamental to the management, extent of use, conservation and intensification for productivity enhancement. The awesome reality is that current supplies of animal proteins are inadequate to meet human requirements in the face of rapidly depleting resources: arable land, water, fossil fuels, nitrogenous and other fertilisers, and decreased supplies of cereal grains. The contribution of the ruminant sector lags well behind that of non-ruminant pigs and poultry. It is compelling therefore to shift priority for the development of ruminants (buffaloes, cattle, goats and sheep) in key agro-ecological zones (AEZs), making intensive use of the available biomass from the forage resources, crop residues, agro-industrial by-products (AIBP) and other non-conventional feed resources (NCFR). Definitions are given of successful and failed projects on feed resource use. These were used to analyse 12 case studies, which indicated the value of strong participatory efforts with farmers, empowerment, and the benefits from animals of productivity-enhancing technologies and integrated natural resource management (NRM). However, wider replication and scaling up were inadequate in project formulation, including systems methodologies that promoted technology adoption. There was overwhelming emphasis on component technology applications that were duplicated across countries, often wasteful, the results and relevance of which were not clear. Technology delivery via the traditional model of research-extension linkage was also inadequate, and needs to be expanded to participatory research-extension-farmer linkages to accelerate diffusion of technologies, wider adoption and impacts. Other major limitations concerned with feed resource use are failure to view this issue from a farming systems perspective, strong disciplinary bias, and poor links to real farm situations. It is suggested that improved efficiency in feed resource use and increased productivity from animals in the future needs to be cognisant of nine strategies. These include priorities for feed resource use; promoting intensive use of crop residues; intensification of integrated ruminant-oil palm systems and use of oil palm by-products; priority for urgent, wider technology application, adoption and scaling up; rigorous application of systems methodologies; development of adaptation and mitigation options for the effects of climate change on feed resources; strengthening research-extension-farmer linkages; development of year round feeding systems; and striving for sustainability of integrated farming systems. These strategies together form the challenges for the future.

A Study on the Cash Policies of Retail Firms (유통 상장기업의 현금정책에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine whether the cash policies of retail firms listed on Korean stock markets are consistent with the evidence provided in the study of Almeida et al. (2004). Liquidity management is an important issue for financially constrained firms relative to financially unconstrained firms. Because there are few sources of external funding, the optimal liquidity policies of financially constrained firms should reflect their own earnings or cash inflows to create opportunities for current and future real investments. According to this simple idea, we estimate the sensitivity of cash to cash flows and simply check whether the estimated sensitivity to cash flows of the cash retained by constrained retail firms is greater than that of the cash retained by unconstrained retail firms. Through this work, we aim to explain why the cash policies of the retail firms listed on the Korean stock markets differ from those of listed manufacturing enterprises. Research design, data, and methodology - To explain a firm's cash holdings, we use only three explanatory variables: earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), Tobin's q, and size. All the variables are defined as the value of the numerator divided by aggregate assets. Thanks to this definition, it is possible to treat all the sample firms as a single large firm. The sample financial data for this study are collected from the retail enterprises listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets from 1991 to 2013. We can obtain these data from WISEfn, the financial information company. This study's methodology has its origin in Keynes's simple idea of precautionary liquidity demand: When a firm faces financial constraints, cash savings from earnings or cash inflows become important from the corporate finance perspective. Following this simple idea, Almeida et al. (2004) developed their theoretical model and found empirical evidence that the sensitivity of cash to cash flows varies systematically according to different types of financing frictions. To find more empirical evidence for this idea, we examined the cash flow sensitivity of the cash held by Korean retail firms. Results - Through several robustness tests, we empirically showed that financially constrained Korean retail firms display significant positive propensity to save cash from earnings before interest and taxes, while the estimated cash flow sensitivity of the cash held by unconstrained retail firms is not significant. Despite the relatively low earnings of retail firms, their sensitivity is three times greater than that of manufacturing enterprises. This implies that Korean retail firms have greater intentions of facilitating future investments rather than current investments. Conclusions - The characteristics of the cash policies of Korean retail firms differ from those of manufacturing firms. This contrast may be attributable to industry-oriented policy planning, regulations, and institutional differences. However, the industrial policymakers should observe signals of the long-term growth options of retail firms based on their high propensity to save from their cash inflows.

Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.