• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.44-58
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• 2002

There have been many solutions to overcome theoretical problems of the Discounted Cash Flow Methods, especially on the valuation of technology. Real Options are thought as a solution. There, however, are another problems in applying Real Options for the valuation of technology; diversity and complexity of models. This Paper recommends 5 models for the valuation of technology, especially for practitioners.

• IE interfaces
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.184-192
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• 2005

In recent research there has been intense interest in understanding how real option valuation (ROV) approaches might usefully complement conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques. However, investment decision makers in a real world have been worried about adopting the ROV approaches mainly because of difficulty in technically understanding the theory of the ROV approaches as indicated by many researchers. With this difficulty in mind, we propose the opportunity cost model as another discrete-time model to value a deferral option. The main advantage of observing a real options value in terms of the opportunity cost concept is to provide a technique for practitioners to estimate a wide range of real options values without sticking to a financial option modelling. The fundamental ground for developing the opportunity cost model proposed in this paper lies in the work of dissecting the structure of the real options value into three categories: capital gain, expected opportunity loss, and expected opportunity gain. At the end of the paper, we will present a short illustrative example to demonstrate the applicability of the model.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.67-74
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• 2014

Real options valuation models are now proved as a effective valuation method both in Theoretically and empirically. However, to use real options model for early stage start-ups, additional non-financial information is crucial in the valuation process. Previous studies theoretically suggested the modified real options valuation model and process to use non-financial information in the valuation of early stage startups, but there is no empirical evidence on the suggested model. Therefore, this study investigated the effectiveness of the modified real options valuation model using a case study. The case study result showed that the modified real options valuation effectively reflect the non-financial information in early stage startups, and decrease the forecasting error in the valuation process.

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.117-130
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• 2001

R&D is the core competence of an enterprise. Furthermore, R&D requires huge capital investment and has very risky characteristics. Therefore, to be successful in R&D process, several approaches of engineering economics are used prior to decision-making. Until now, typical approaches of engineering economics such as NPV(net present value) or DCF(Discounted cash flow) have been used. But, they cannot properly capture managerial flexibility to adapt and revise later decisions in response to unexpected market development. In a constantly changing and always uncertain marketplace, managerial operation flexibility and strategic adaptability have become vital in order to successfully capitalize on favorable future investment opportunities and limit losses from adverse market development. For the alternatives of conventional static decision-making approaches, new concept of using real options is introduced. Real option theory is based on financial option's characteristics and checks every revision interval whether situation have changed favorable to decision maker or not. In advantageous situation, the decision maker has only to go on. In contrast, with unfavorable situation, he abandons the investment immediately. In this aspect, real option model is more suitable in very uncertain and dynamic business environment in that it can provide the opportunity to cope with flexibility. This paper suggests efficient and effective R&D investment strategy by using real options model. In addition, this paper compares financial options and real options.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.307-337
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• 2001

In this paper, we propose the valuation frame of the IT(Information Technology) ventures using ROV(Real Options Valuation) model. Generally, ROV can comprises the traditional valuation method such as DCF(Discounted Cash Flow), which can measure only the tangible value of a firm from the expected future earnings, in that ROV can additionally measure the intangible value such as the strategic value of a firm in the uncertain environment. We set up the hypothetic IT venture future investment plan and assume that there are a growth option and a switching option consequently along the investment time horizon, which are caused by each characteristics of ventures and IT technologies, especially modularity. In the case that there are several embedded real options in the firm's investment plan in a row, we should apply the compound option pricing model as a real option valuation model in order to consider the value interaction between real options. In an addition, we present the results of optimal investment timing analysis using real options approach and compare them. with those of the original assumed investment timing.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.117-131
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• 2017

We question whether Korean IT managers consider real options to reduce risks of cloud service implementation. This work investigates the impact of technology risk, relationship risk, economy risk, security risk upon the intention of IT managers to utilize abandon & expansion options. We also analyze moderation effect of centralization level of decision making between these risks and the utilization of real options. Using the survey questionnaire, we empirically find that technology risk, relationship risk and security risk have significant effect upon abandon option and technology risk, relationship risk, and economy upon expansion option. We also find the evidence that centralization level moderates some risks and the direction of moderation effect is to offset the effect of risks on intention to utilize real options.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2002.05b
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• pp.181-198
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• 2002

This article describes a methodology for evaluating huge aerospace R&D investments using the real options pricing method. Option pricing has been proposed as a useful approach for modeling investment in R&D. Two important features of R&D investments are that an R&D project takes time to complete and that the outcome of R&D investments is highly uncertain. This makes the analysis of R&D investments difficult. Traditional tools for project evaluation, like IRR or the NPV, are inadequate for coping with the high uncertainty. Hence, In this article I propose a log-transformed binomal lattice method, and it will show that option pricing might be an adequate framework for evaluating such types of aerospace investments.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.742-745
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• 2004

Most of options pricing theory including Black and Scholes continuous model and Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein(CRR)'s binomial lattice model were developed based on the notion that continually revised risk-free hedges involving options and stock should earn the risk-free interest rate. This notion is valid with the assumption that the investor's attitude toward risk is neutral. In reality, this assumption may be frequently violated. Therefore, Hodder, Mello, and Sick proposed the way to value real options using the risk-adjusted interest rate. However, they did not show how to derive the mathematical expression for it. In this paper, we will clearly present how to obtain the mathematical expression for the risk-adjusted interest rate for real options and demonstrate two numerical examples to show its applicability.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.581-605
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• 2018

In the soft drink industry, especially small and medium enterprises in Japan, there is a possibility of conversion from a labor-intensive industry to a capital-intensive. The demand for soft drinks may not be satisfied in the summer because the supply is too low to meet the demand. To address this situation, this paper proposes optimal investment that integrates demand uncertainty, based on real options approach (ROA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. Two alternative options are compared and evaluated. One is the Bermudan option: to employ additional workers to elevate efficiency in summer and laying off in winter, this attitude is repeated each year. The other is the American option: to replace equipment to increase machine ability throughout the year. Results in ROA show that the highest improvement is gained if the two options are in a symbiotic relationship. Soft drink producers should search for replacing equipment, using the employees repeatedly. A temporary decision is not equal to an infinite decision.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.83-97
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• 2001

Net Present Value (NPV) criterion has been the most widely used criterion to evaluate investment opportunities. However, the analysis based on the NPV criterion falls to consider the managerial flexibility of deferring decisions until major uncertainty is resolved. Recently, real options method attracted a lot of attention as a Powerful approach to address the problem. If investment decision is deferred, the value of the investment opportunity increases but opportunity cost increases at the same time. Therefore, it is important to decide the optimal timing how long the decision can be deferred. In this paper, we developed a model deciding the optimal decision timing. Using the real options approach, the model derived the optimal deferring time until a decision is made. Then, the model was applied to a Korean mobile telecommunications company who wants to invest on the wireless resale business. We believe that this model would be very useful to overcome the problem of NPV decision criterion. With this approach, we can make contingent decisions based on the observation of uncertainly resolutions.