• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.13 no.7
• /
• pp.432-439
• /
• 2013

In this study, we evaluate the volatility of housing prices by using literature review and empirical analysis and furthermore we suggest how to improve. In order to diagnose housing market, the KB Bank's House Price Index, Real estate 114;s materials were compared. In addition, to examine the volatility, GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) and EGARCH (Exponential GARCH) model are used. By analysis of this research, we found the volatility of housing price also was reduced in the medium and the large houses since 1998, while the volatility of small housing price relatively was large. We proved that the price change rate of small housing was higher than the medium's. On the order hand, the supply of small apartments fell down sharply. The short-term oriented policy should be avoided, and the efficiency and credibility of policy should be increased. Furthermore, the long-term policy system should be established. and rental market's improvement is necessary for stabilization of housing market.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.234-252
• /
• 2010

This paper examines the tendency of housing assets to become increasingly quasi-financial assets by analyzing the relationships between risks and returns in three Gangnam districts (Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu and Songpa-gu) apartment markets in Seoul, especially for the apartments to be reconstructed, capitalizing upon some capital asset pricing models (CAPM). A single factor CAPM model shows positive relationships between risks and returns regardless of the types of apartments in three Gangnam districts. Multi-factors CAPM models also confirm that the market and SMB (small minus big) factors are positively related to the rate of returns regardless of the types of apartments. However, the unsystematic risk factor is found to be statistically positive especially for the apartments to be reconstructed, while the momentum factor is dependent upon the regression models used. An analysis on some portfolios classified by the size of apartments and price volatility and/or beta values suggests that there are the positive linear relationships between risks and returns and the SMB factor is clearly found to be significant in determining the rate of returns. In particular, housing assets are highly highlighted as investment goods and/or quasi financial assets for the apartments to be constructed in the Gangnam housing.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
• /
• v.50 no.1
• /
• pp.125-141
• /
• 2020

This study investigated the time-series relationship between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in the five major districts in Seoul and also analyzed the effect of the housing consumer sentiment on housing prices using Granger Causality and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models. To describe the key results, first of all, housing consumer sentiment and regional housing market prices were closely related to each other, and the consumer sentiment strongly affected the change of housing prices. Second, the housing consumer sentiment was confirmed to have a discriminatory effect on the housing prices among the districts in Seoul in the short term. Specifically, the housing price of the east southern district (ESD) was the main reason for the change in housing consumer sentiment in Seoul, and that the resulting impact was transferred to other districts. Third, it was analyzed that regions other than the ESD would increase the housing prices in the long term as the housing consumer sentiment turned positive, but that the ESD would see a steady tone. Fourth, in the case of relative influence by district, housing (apartment) price fluctuation in a district was generally found to be most affected by adjacent or competitive districts. Through these findings, this study confirmed that there is a clear causality between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in each district of Seoul and that there is a discriminatory influence on housing consumer sentiment among the districts.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.112-121
• /
• 2014

After IMF bailout crisis in Korea, project financing has been employed as a major funding vehicle for the housing development. In 2008, the recession of housing market due to the global financial crisis had an significant impact on the increasing insolvent site of PF based housing development project, resulting in serious impact to whole economy as a chain effect. In order to resolve this vicious circle of bankruptcy, the major construction companies were urged to take over the insolvent sites and invest to them for normal project exit, and finally play a critical role in normalization of market. Therefore, this study aims to define the core factors for decision making to invest to insolvent site and find out differences among constructors, developers, financial lenders. The results from AHP analysis, the profitability was the most important factor to constructors. Moreover, even though the location merit is little less, through competitive price, we can assure that stable profitability is most important factor to decide to invest in insolvent site. In conclusion, the price is cheap, is highly feasible, if the land secured, major construction company will participate in a PF business investment. These findings were verified by the investment case of major construction company.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
• /
• v.38 no.4
• /
• pp.45-58
• /
• 2022

This study intends to compare the factors influencing the location of international schools on apartment sales and monthly rent prices for Songdo International School in Incheon, which has a history of more than 10 years. At the latest point, 10 years after the opening of the school, apartments in areas near international schools are divided into sales and monthly rent markets and analyzed. Songdo International City, designed as a planned city, was set as a spatial scope, and 2018-19, which is a relatively stable real estate period, was set as a temporal analysis period to avoid the overheating period of real estate after COVID-19. Considering the urban image of the "New Special Education Zone," such as the opening of Songdo Campus by private academies formed around international schools and domestic and foreign universities, the multiple regression model was applied based on the traditional Hedonic price model. As a result of the empirical analysis, first, differences in the price determinants of sales and monthly rent were confirmed. Second, the price influence of international schools was much higher than that of the variables. Third, the influence of international schools was more pronounced in the monthly rent market than in the sales market.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.161-206
• /
• 2013

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been suffering from the Great Recession characterized by high and persistent unemployment as well as drastic fall in asset prices. Real business cycle theory or new-Keynesian economics which has been the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics for the last four decades is unable to explain the high and persistent unemployment during the Great Recession. This implies that the economics of Keynes should be taken seriously again as a tool to explain the Great Recession. Farmer (2012) proposes a new way of interpreting the economics of Keynes by providing it with a solid micro-foundation based on labor markets with search. According to Farmer (2012), aggregate economic activity independently depends on the long-term self-fulfilling expectations about the stock prices. As a consequence, the government or the central bank should implement a policy that influences the public's confidence about the stock market. For an open economy like the Korean economy, it is not only stock price but also the price of asset such as house that matters more for the aggregate economic activity. Households in the Korean economy hold more than 70 percent of their wealth in the form of real estate asset, especially housing asset. This makes the public's confidence about the future prices of houses even more important in explaining the business cycles of the Korean economy. Policymakers should implement policies to improve the confidence of households about the housing market to recover from the recession caused by a fall in house prices. Little theoretical work has been done in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity from the point of house prices. This paper develops a small open economy model with traded and non-traded capital based on Farmer (2012) and shows that the aggregate economic activity also independently depends on the households' self-fulfilling expectations about the future prices of non-traded asset such as houses.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.11 no.6
• /
• pp.54-64
• /
• 2010

A firm decides to go to the project based on its investment analysis. However, the cash flows generated from the real project can not be always coincident with what expected as it follows uncertain behavior and the asymmetric payoff caused by the managerial flexibilities involved in the real asset affects the project value. Amongst various managerial flexibilities entailed in most of the real assets, although investment delay has been known to enhance the project value thanks to its ability to provide new market information to management, the related research to select the time to invest have been just few. Therefore, this research aims to show the theoretical framework to decide when to invest reflecting the behaviors of increasing project value and loss recovery cost due to investment delay with option pricing, related financial economic, and variational theories.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.12 no.4
• /
• pp.31-39
• /
• 2014

Purpose - This study investigates the following two issues. First, we attempt to find the important determinants of housing investment and to identify their significance rank using survey panel data. Recently, the expansion of global uncertainty in the real estate market has directly and indirectly influenced the Korean housing market; households demonstrate a sensitive reaction to changes in that market. Therefore, this study aims to draw conclusions from understanding how the impact of financial strength of the household is related to house investment. Second, we attempt to verify the effectiveness of diverse indices of financial strength such as DTI, LTV, and PIR as measures to monitor the housing market. In the continuous housing market recession after the global crisis, the government places top priority on residence stability. However, the government still imposes forceful restraints on indices of financial strength. We believe this study verifies the utility of these regulations when used in the housing market. Research design, data, and methodology - The data source for this study is the "National Survey of Tax and Benefit" from 2007 (1st) to 2011 (5th) by the Korea Institute of Public Finance. Based on this survey data, we use panel data of 3,838 households that have been surveyed continuously for 5 years. We sort the base variables according to relevance of house investment criteria using the decision tree model (DTM), which is the standard decision-making model for data-mining techniques. The DTM method is known as a powerful methodology to identify contributory variables for predictive power. In addition, we analyze how important explanatory variables and the financial strength index of households affect housing investment with the binary logistic multi-regressive model. Based on the analyses, we conclude that the financial strength index has a significant role in house investment demand. Results - The results of this research are as follows: 1) The determinants of housing investment are age, consumption expenditures, income, total assets, rent deposit, housing price, habits satisfaction, housing scale, number of household members, and debt related to housing. 2) The impact power of these determinants has changed more or less annually due to economic situations and housing market conditions. The level of consumption expenditure and income are the main determinants before 2009; however, the determinants of housing investment changed to indices of the financial strength of households, i.e., DTI, LTV, and PIR, after 2009. 3) Most of all, since 2009, housing loans has been a more important variable than the level of consumption in making housing market decisions. Conclusions - The results of this research show that sound financing of households has a stronger effect on housing investment than reduced consumption expenditures. At the same time, the key indices that must be monitored by the government under economic emergency conditions differ from those requiring monitoring under normal market conditions; therefore, political indices to encourage and promote the housing market must be divided based on market conditions.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.65-81
• /
• 2015

This study reports a preliminary finding of the types and numbers of graphs being presented in the annual reports of about thirty top listed companies trading publicly in the stock markets of three countries-Thailand (SET), Malaysia (BM), and Singapore (SGX)-that were chosen based on their inclusion in the ASEAN Stars Index under the ASEAN Trading Link project. A total of 6,753 graphs from nineteen sectors were extracted and examined. Banking, real estate, and telecommunications are ranked the three most condense sectors, accounting for 50.2% of the total number of graphs observed. The three most used graphs are the Conservative Bar, Donut graph and Stack Bar. Less than one percent of Infographic type graphs were used. The five most depicted graphed variables are Asset, Revenue, Net profit, Liability, and Dividend. Using rudimentary framework to detect distorted or misleading statistical graphs, the study found 60.6% of the graphs distorted across the three markets, SET, BM, and SGX. BM ranked first in percentages of graphs being distortedly presented (73%). The other two markets, SET and SGX, have about the same proportions, 53.88% and 53.03%, respectively. Likewise, the proportions of Well-designed versus Inappropriate-designed graphs of the latter two markets are a little over one time (SET = 1 : 1.17; SGX = 1 : 1.13), whereas the proportion is almost triple for the BM market (BM = 1 : 2.70). In addition, the trend of distorted graphs found is slightly increasing as the longevity of the ASEAN Stars Index increases. One possible explanation for the relatively equal proportion of inappropriate graphs found is that SET is the smallest market and SGX, though the largest, is the most regulated market. BM, on the other hand, may want to present their financial data in the most attractive manner to prospective investors, thus, regulatory constraints and governance structure are still lenient.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
• /
• v.48 no.2
• /
• pp.5-20
• /
• 2018

This paper aims to analyze characteristic by the cities focused on the ratio of new apartment resale that is one of the apartment unit sale market, which has been increased recently. So, this study examined characteristics of population, apartment trade & sale, housing with 162 cities and counties and performed multiple regression analysis with dependent variable, ratio of new apartment resale. As a result. the factors affecting the ratio of new apartment resale are 7variables, apartment sales rate, transfer of ownership, apartment turnover rate, sale volume, regional apartment rate, population increasing rate, housing average apartment sale price rate. In terms of the increase in apartment sales prices, the rate of sales price increase was relatively low in areas where the transaction rate for apartment sales is high, and the number of apartment sales right transactions increased as the number of other ownership transfers rose. As a result, the data will be based on the improvement of the government's policies and systems to stimulate the transaction focused on the real estate agents in the apartment market.