• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real estate market

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Changes in Household Saving Rate and the Influencing Factors (가계 저축율의 변화 추이와 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Seong-Lim
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.49 no.8
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2011
  • Using the 1987-2008 quarterly aggregated data of the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, this study investigated the factors influencing household saving rate. The independent variables in the AR regression model were the GDP growth rate, shares of the total household expenditure allocated to tax & social insurance, and education, the variables reflecting the conditions of the asset market including interest rate, stock market index, and real estate price index, and the variables representing the social economic conditions including the index of aging and income inequality. Among the independent variables interest rate, stock market index, and income inequality were found to be significantly associated with the household saving rate. These results suggested that the redistribution and financial market policies favorable to savers may be effective for raising the household saving rate.

Using Machine Learning Algorithms for Housing Price Prediction: The Case of Islamabad Housing Data

  • Imran, Imran;Zaman, Umar;Waqar, Muhammad;Zaman, Atif
    • Soft Computing and Machine Intelligence
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2021
  • House price prediction is a significant financial decision for individuals working in the housing market as well as for potential buyers. From investment to buying a house for residence, a person investing in the housing market is interested in the potential gain. This paper presents machine learning algorithms to develop intelligent regressions models for House price prediction. The proposed research methodology consists of four stages, namely Data Collection, Pre Processing the data collected and transforming it to the best format, developing intelligent models using machine learning algorithms, training, testing, and validating the model on house prices of the housing market in the Capital, Islamabad. The data used for model validation and testing is the asking price from online property stores, which provide a reasonable estimate of the city housing market. The prediction model can significantly assist in the prediction of future housing prices in Pakistan. The regression results are encouraging and give promising directions for future prediction work on the collected dataset.

Analysis of Characteristics and Determinants of Household Loans in Korea: Focusing on COVID-19 (국내 가계대출의 특징과 결정요인 분석: COVID-19를 중심으로)

  • Jin-Hee Jang;Jae-Bum Hong;Seung-Doo Choi
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.

System Dynamics Modeling of Korean Lease Contract Chonsei (시스템 다이내믹스 방법론을 활용한 국내전세 구조분석)

  • Park, MoonSeo;Moon, Myung-Gi;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Hwang, Sungjoo;Lee, Jeoung-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.153-164
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    • 2012
  • Since the sub-prime mortgage crisis from the US in 2008, Korean housing market has plummeted. However, Korean local lease contract, Chonsei, price has been increasing. This increase of Chonsei price can be a threat to the low-income people because most of them prefer to live at the house with a Chonsei contract. In order to solve this problem, the Korean Government implemented several Chonsei policies to secure low-incomers' residence by decreasing the price of Chonsei; however, due to the lack of understanding on housing and Chonsei market, Korean government policy seemed to fail on getting effective results. In the housing and Chonsei market, there are many stakeholders with their own interest, hence, simple thoughts about housing and Chonsei market, such as more house supply will decrease house price, would not work in a real complex housing market. In this research, we suggests system dynamics conceptual model which consists of causal-loop-diagrams for the Chonsei market as well as the housing market. In addition, we tries to explain why the policy did not work effectively using the examples from the government's past measures. In results, Chonsei price has its own homeostasis characteristic and different price movement with housing price in the short and long term period. Unless government does not have a structural causation mind in implementing policies in the real estate market, the government may not attain intended effectiveness on both markets.

A Study on the Property Planning Process for the Highest and Best Use Development (건축물의 최유효 개발계획 수립을 위한 기획업무 절차에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, So-Yon;Park, Young-Ki
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.115-120
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of the study is to establish a concept of property development planning process and factors by analyzing the several case studies, which prior proposed the highest and best use development of property. The value of property is dependent on the circumstances and the timing. Real property development is essential to develop in the highest and the best. The prior concepts of the highest and best use focused on the real estate appraisal, but these studies aroused an interest that related the highest and best use concept as a determinant of property development. As a results, this study suggests the process and the check points of property development planning phase. The first step is having a thorough grasp of the status of property. The Second step is the circumstantial analysis including legal restriction, locational environment, real estate market and economic conditions. The next step is, in accordance with these analysis, setting up the development concept and alternatives. Through the feasibility studies, we can make a choice the highest and best use development plan. In these days, the importance of development strategies such as design exceptionality and plan management are increased. Therefore, the integrated plan for the property development is very important.

Use of REITs for Improving Housing Welfare (주거복지 확충을 위한 리츠의 활용 방안)

  • Park, Wonseok
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.275-292
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    • 2013
  • This paper aims at analyzing the use REITs for improving housing welfare, especially focusing on affordable housing. To do this, firstly, current state and main problems of domestic housing welfare are analyzed, secondly, housing welfare system involving capital market and case study of affordable housing REITs in United State are examined. and thirdly, utilization schemes of REITs for improving affordable housing are analyzed. In the process of executing housing welfare, various systemic bases for attracting capital market are constructed. Under these systemic basis, affordable housing REITs such as Community Development Trust are operated. This scheme also can be applied in Korea. In the context, the structures of using management on commition REITs and the structure of using real estate fund are proposed.

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Study on the change in the Satisfaction Degree on the Residential Environment and the change in the Selection Tendency of the Residential Property - Targeting Seoul Residences - (주거환경 만족도와 주거선택요소 중요도 변화에 관한 연구 - 서울지역 거주자를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Joon-Hwan;Choi, Young-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2008
  • Recently, Seoul residential real estate market showed a big change, especially in 2007. The residential property price in Seoul had been mainly affected by 5 provideces: Kangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, Songpa-gu, Gangdong-gu and Yangchun-gu, but these providences started to show the decrease in price while the other providences ironically showed the opposite direction. Therefore, this project was derived from this phenomenon recognition and the necessity as the new market trend requires. The pre-research was carried out with the point of social-population academic view, but this project provides the analysis on the new market trend by simplifying the complex valuation indexes, originated from the pre-research. In result, the aspects of the change could be categorized into time-manner classification and territorial-manner classification, in cope with the change in the satisfaction degree on the residential environment and the selection tendency of the residential property. Based on the the moving-preferred area criteria, the territorial classification was categorized into 3 areas: 5 providences, which showed the initial decrease in real estate price (area 1), the other Kangnam area (area 2), and Kangbuk area (area 3). The result illustrated the reasonable change in the satisfaction degree on the residential environment and the selection tendency of the residential property. This project was able to reach the following conclusion : Firstly, the housing development planning should be devised by the residential environment, including the view and the natural environment, not by the area. Secondly, the housing development planning in the other Kangnam area (area 2) and Kangbuk area (area 3) should embrace the business function, not the housing development only. Last, the housing development planning in Kangbuk area (area 3) should be able to enhance education and culture function and be connected by various transportation system. This project analyzes the change in the satisfaction degree on the residential environment and the selection tendency of the residential property. Thereafter, this project has the purpose of providing the aid in understanding of the basis of housing development information.

A Study for Locating of a New Store Considering Competition for Trading Area: Focusing on the Case of Hypermarket in Seoul Metropolitan Area (상권경쟁을 고려한 신규점포의 입지선정에 관한 연구 - 서울시 대형마트를 대상으로 -)

  • Tae, Kyoung-Soub;Rhim, Byeong-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.609-627
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    • 2010
  • Finding the ideal location for your business is one of the most critical and important steps you will have to undertake. Otherwise, done in the wrong way you will only end up paying an expensive cost for an unsuitable location. Therefore to select the perfect location for your business, this study makes a reasonable and simple model for retail shops by calculating occupation population for each store applying Huffs "Probability Theory" to Hypermarket in Seoul. Then this study, based on occupation population, has divided every unit section (dong scale) into 4 market types which represent the state of the competitive markets, including monopoly, oligopoly, competitive, and noncompetitive markets. Consequently, the most reasonable place to locate a new store is where it can take most of the customers, that is, a place which can take non-competitive market as much as possible and is distant far enough from competitive market where competition is severe.

Analysis of Rent-Free Determinants : Evidence from Seoul Office Market (오피스 렌트프리 결정요인 분석 : 서울시를 중심으로)

  • Han, Gwang-Ho;Kwon, Hee-Jae;Ro, Seung-Han
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 2019
  • This study is to review methodological limitations of previous studies, propose Tobit Model as an analysis model. We model used annual rent-free as dependent variable and considering to contract characteristics and building characteristics as independent variable. We model was consisted to the three model as follow: Basic model, Time control model, Quadratic model. As a result of the analysis, existing variables revealed through previous studies such as contract period, contract area, total floor area, and building age were all statistically significant. These results were robust when considering time effects. Also, floor area and annual rent-free was quadratic relationship by inverse U shape. This result provide to methodological contribution for related research. Also, provide to more accurate information for participants in seoul office market.

A Positive Analysis of Housing Price Model in Seoul: Applications of Structural Equation Modeling

  • Kim, Kyong-Hoon;Lee, Yoon-Sun;Ahn, Byung-Ju;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Architectural research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2007
  • Our nation has a problem with discrimination of income distribution and inefficient of resources distribution caused by real estate price rising from a sudden economy growth and industrialization. Specially, in recent years, there is a great disparity of apartment price between the north and south of the Han river. Because the housing price is decided by the immanent value of a house and neighborhood effects of the regional where the house is situated, the housing price is occurred difference. The purpose of study was to analyze the influence of various factors of housing price. Also, this study tried to predict real estate market and to establish previous effective real estate policy. In this study, we analyzed the differences of housing price determinants about apartment developments between the north and south of the Han river, and found the important factors that affect the housing price using Structural Equation Modeling(SEM). As a result of this study, the older the buildings are, the more the housing price and the housing price rising ratio have increased, in Gang Nam area. This reason is that these have large possibility to be reconstructed and many convenient facilities, in this area. In the case of Kang Buk area, the increase rate of housing price are so low that they couldn't take effect on the housing price and they were declined. So to speak, constructing the infrastructure which takes effect on the increase rate of housing price is very urgent.