• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.129-142
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• 2001

본 논문은 실물옵션이론(Real Option Theory)과 그 이론의 경영학 적용 - 특히 고위험의 비즈니스를 분석대상으로 하는 - 에 대한 문헌을 검토한 후 이론 적용의 세가지 문제점을 지적한다. 그리고 본 논문은 실물옵션이론 적용시에 옵션이 창출되기 위한 잠재적 실물자산(Underlying real asset)을 명확히 밝혀주어야 한다는 것을 제시한다. 잠재적 실물자산이 명확해 질 경우, 실물옵션이론은 토탈로지로부터 자유로울 수 있으며. 위에서 언급된 세가지 문제점을 해소시킬 수 있을 것이다.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.41-66
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• 2013

IS outsourcing has an important meaning to the Korean SME's (Small and Medium Enterprises) which want to use the IS Services. The objective of this research is to manage IT risks occurred during IS outsourcing project process. This study tries to identify these risks using real option methodology. In order to perform this objective, this study set up the research model which is composed of two main concepts. The first one is the risk factors occurred during IS outsourcing project process: User's Risks, Supplier's Risks and Transaction's Risks. All of these risks are based on Transaction Cost Theory. The second one is the intention to get (or buy) Real Options to manage the risks. In the research model, two types of real option are included: option to abandon (put option) and option to defer (call option). This study uses questionnaires and statistics methodology (PLS) to analyze the hypotheses proposed in the research model. Compared with prior studies, this study is different in two ways. First, this study restricts the range of IT risks. Prior researches of IT Risk management in MIS area cover various range of IT risks, but this study focuses on the Korean SME's IT outsourcing risks on the basis of Transaction Cost Theory. This study tests the relationship between the risks and real option types. Second, this study tries to test the moderating effect of user's risks and supplier's risks on the relationship between transaction's risks and real option types. In IT outsourcing research area, almost studies focus on the direct relationships between IT risks and outsourcing success. But in reality, the co-relationship among IT risks may occur. There are some findings according to the research analysis. First, risks related with user's risks have strong causal relationships with the intention to get option to abandon (put) and option to defer. But risks related with supplier's risks have causal relationships only with option to abandon (put). Second, user's risks and supplier's risks have no moderating effect on the relationship between transaction's risks and real option types. According to the research results, this research have some important and interesting implications on the IS outsourcing business area. First, this study identifies the effective types of real option to minimize the risks occurred during the IT outsourcing projects. So IS outsourcing service users can manage (or minimize) effectively the risks, which occurred during outsourcing projects, using real options. Second, real option gives benefits to suppliers and users at the same time (i.e., win-win strategies between IS outsourcing service providers and users). Vendors (:IS outsourcing service providers) can offer users the real options which can minimize the occurrence of risks in time. "IN TIME" means that before the IS outsourcing project starts, vendors can offer users the opportunity to buy real options in appropriate prices to manage the possibility of the risks of IS outsourcing project. And users also have chance to minimize the IT outsourcing risks occurred during the project process using real options.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 2003년도 춘계공동학술대회
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• pp.620-627
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• 2003

The real option pricing theory has emerged as the new investment decision-making techniques superceding the traditional discounted cash flow techniques and thus has greatly received muck attention from academics and practitioners in these days the theory has been widely applied to a variety of corporate strategic projects such as a new drug R&D, an internet start-up. an advanced manufacturing system. and so on A lot of people who are interested in the real option pricing theory complain that it is difficult to understand the true meaning of the real option value. though. One of the most conspicuous reasons for the complaint may be due to the fact that there exit many different ways to calculate the real options value in this paper, we will present a replicating portfolio method. a risk-neutral probability method. a risk-adjusted discount rate method (quasi capital asset pricing method). and an opportunity cost concept-based method under the conditions of a binomial lattice option pricing theory.

• 산업공학
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.184-192
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• 2005

In recent research there has been intense interest in understanding how real option valuation (ROV) approaches might usefully complement conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques. However, investment decision makers in a real world have been worried about adopting the ROV approaches mainly because of difficulty in technically understanding the theory of the ROV approaches as indicated by many researchers. With this difficulty in mind, we propose the opportunity cost model as another discrete-time model to value a deferral option. The main advantage of observing a real options value in terms of the opportunity cost concept is to provide a technique for practitioners to estimate a wide range of real options values without sticking to a financial option modelling. The fundamental ground for developing the opportunity cost model proposed in this paper lies in the work of dissecting the structure of the real options value into three categories: capital gain, expected opportunity loss, and expected opportunity gain. At the end of the paper, we will present a short illustrative example to demonstrate the applicability of the model.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.800-807
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• 2009

The limited public funds available for infrastructure projects have led governments to consider private entities' participation in long-term contracts for finance, construction, and operation of these projects to share risks and rewards between the public and the private. Because these projects have complicated risk evolutions, diverse contractual forms for each project member to hedge risks involved in a project are necessary. In light of this, Build-Operate-Transfer(BOT) model is considered as effective to accomplish Public Private Partnerships(PPPs) with a characteristic of an ownership-reversion. In BOT projects, the government has used such an incentive system as minimum revenue guarantee(MRG) agreement to attract the private's participation. Although this agreement turns out critical in success of BOT project, there still exist problematic issues in a financial feasibility analysis since the traditional capital budgeting theory, Net Present Value(NPV) analysis, has failed to evaluate the contingent characteristic of MRG agreement. The purpose of this research is to develop real option model based on option pricing theory so as to provide a theoretical framework in valuing MRG agreement in BOT projects. To understand the applicability of the model, the model is applied to the example of the BOT toll road project and the results are compared with that by NPV analysis. Finally, we found that the impact of the MRG agreement is significant on the project value. Hence, the real option model can help the government establish better BOT policies and the developer make appropriate bidding strategies.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.43-61
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• 2015

The valuation of patents is very important, since technology competitiveness is crucial for firms to maintain global competitiveness. But, the patent valuation is difficult and challenging because of the uncertainty affecting their returns. Hence, we propose a patent valuation method by incorporating game theory into the real option model, which can not only potentially recognizes the effect of uncertainty on patent value, but also consider investment decision in a competitive market, as a game between firms. With the model, we can consider dynamic strategy involving an option of patent leveraging strategies enabling the firm to switch among compete, cooperate, or wait modes under different demand or competitive advantage condition.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.137-145
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• 2007

In traditional financial theory, the discount cash flow model(DCF or NPV) operates as the basic framework for most analyses. In doing valuation analysis, the conventional view is that the net present value(NPV) of a project is the measure of the present value of expected net cash flows. Thus, investing in a positive(negative) NPV project will increase(decrease) firm value. Recently, this framework has come under some fire for failing to consider the options of the managerial flexibilities. Real option valuation(ROV) considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding the implementation of investment projects and the deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real assets based on the Black-Sholes option pricing model, the binomial option pricing model, and the Monte Carlo simulation. This paper uses those models to obtain point estimates of real option value with the G7- HSR350X(high-speed train).

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.178-189
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• 2018

In this paper, we present a case study of a new emerging business startup involved in smart house appliances. The irreversible investment concept and real-option theory are introduced as the fundamentals of the model. By using games theory we show that the startup's actions can trigger reactions from other firms. The first part covers initial the research and development stage, while the second part covers production and commercialization. The findings of this study suggest that, given a certain amount of initial investment, an open and shared innovation may lead to hurting a firm's investment while strengthening the competitors' position in the market. However, given the sensitivity analysis, when volatility and demand grow favorably, sharing R&D investment is not a bad option for a new player to adjust its position in the market while still maintaining positive returns.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.119-138
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• 2019

This work examines whether IT managers adopt of real options such as defer, expand, contract, and abandon in order to cope with ERP risks, which include technological risk, relationship risk with SW vendors, economic risk, and security risk. We collect data of logistics firms in Seoul and its suburbs in 2018 to empirically validate the effect of risks upon the adoption of real options. The results suggest that IT managers adopt all 4 options when facing economic risk and adopt contract and abandon options only when facing security risk. Additionally, we find that IT managers prefers expand option and avoid abandon option when they think ERP compatibility is high.

• 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 기술경영경제학회 2001년도 제19회 하계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.117-130
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• 2001

R&D is the core competence of an enterprise. Furthermore, R&D requires huge capital investment and has very risky characteristics. Therefore, to be successful in R&D process, several approaches of engineering economics are used prior to decision-making. Until now, typical approaches of engineering economics such as NPV(net present value) or DCF(Discounted cash flow) have been used. But, they cannot properly capture managerial flexibility to adapt and revise later decisions in response to unexpected market development. In a constantly changing and always uncertain marketplace, managerial operation flexibility and strategic adaptability have become vital in order to successfully capitalize on favorable future investment opportunities and limit losses from adverse market development. For the alternatives of conventional static decision-making approaches, new concept of using real options is introduced. Real option theory is based on financial option's characteristics and checks every revision interval whether situation have changed favorable to decision maker or not. In advantageous situation, the decision maker has only to go on. In contrast, with unfavorable situation, he abandons the investment immediately. In this aspect, real option model is more suitable in very uncertain and dynamic business environment in that it can provide the opportunity to cope with flexibility. This paper suggests efficient and effective R&D investment strategy by using real options model. In addition, this paper compares financial options and real options.