• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.800-807
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• 2009

The limited public funds available for infrastructure projects have led governments to consider private entities' participation in long-term contracts for finance, construction, and operation of these projects to share risks and rewards between the public and the private. Because these projects have complicated risk evolutions, diverse contractual forms for each project member to hedge risks involved in a project are necessary. In light of this, Build-Operate-Transfer(BOT) model is considered as effective to accomplish Public Private Partnerships(PPPs) with a characteristic of an ownership-reversion. In BOT projects, the government has used such an incentive system as minimum revenue guarantee(MRG) agreement to attract the private's participation. Although this agreement turns out critical in success of BOT project, there still exist problematic issues in a financial feasibility analysis since the traditional capital budgeting theory, Net Present Value(NPV) analysis, has failed to evaluate the contingent characteristic of MRG agreement. The purpose of this research is to develop real option model based on option pricing theory so as to provide a theoretical framework in valuing MRG agreement in BOT projects. To understand the applicability of the model, the model is applied to the example of the BOT toll road project and the results are compared with that by NPV analysis. Finally, we found that the impact of the MRG agreement is significant on the project value. Hence, the real option model can help the government establish better BOT policies and the developer make appropriate bidding strategies.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.75-89
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• 2014

PURPOSES : This study evaluates the economic value of national highway construction projects using Real Option Pricing Models. METHODS : We identified the option premium for uncertainties associated with flexibilities according to the future's change in national highway construction projects. In order to evaluate value of future's underlying asset, we calculated the volatility of the unit price per year for benefit estimation such as VOTS, VOCS, VICS, VOPCS and VONCS that the "Transportation Facility Investment Evaluation Guidelines" presented. RESULTS : We evaluated the option premium of underlying asset through a case study of the actual national highway construction projects using ROPM. And in order to predict the changes in the option value of the future's underlying asset, we evaluated the changes of option premium for future's uncertainties by the defer of the start of construction work, the contract of project scale, and the abandon of project during pre-land compensation stages that were occurred frequently in the highway construction projects. Finally we analyzed the sensitivity of the underlying asset using volatility, risk free rate and expiration date of option. CONCLUSIONS : We concluded that a highway construction project has economic value even though static NPV had a negative(-) value because of the sum of the existing static NPV and the option premium for the future's uncertainties associated with flexibilities.

• 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국기술혁신학회 2001년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.307-337
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• 2001

In this paper, we propose the valuation frame of the IT(Information Technology) ventures using ROV(Real Options Valuation) model. Generally, ROV can comprises the traditional valuation method such as DCF(Discounted Cash Flow), which can measure only the tangible value of a firm from the expected future earnings, in that ROV can additionally measure the intangible value such as the strategic value of a firm in the uncertain environment. We set up the hypothetic IT venture future investment plan and assume that there are a growth option and a switching option consequently along the investment time horizon, which are caused by each characteristics of ventures and IT technologies, especially modularity. In the case that there are several embedded real options in the firm's investment plan in a row, we should apply the compound option pricing model as a real option valuation model in order to consider the value interaction between real options. In an addition, we present the results of optimal investment timing analysis using real options approach and compare them. with those of the original assumed investment timing.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.799-831
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• 2012

본 연구는 자동착유시스템 도입에 따른 농가의 투자효과 분석을 통해 자동착유시스템을 신규로 도입하려는 농가의 적합성 조건 등을 파악하는데 있다. 고전적 투자분석방법인 NPV는 모든 농가에서 동일하게 142백만원의 투자효과가 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 실물옵션을 이용해 분석한 결과 옵션의 가치는 기본분석에서 12,304천원, 낙관적인 경우 13,415천원 그리고 비관적인 경우는 11,336천원으로 분석되었다. 따라서 e-NPV의 값은 각각 153,826천원, 154,937천원, 152,858천원으로 분석되었다. 퍼지실물옵션에 의한 투자효과를 살펴보면 먼저, 옵션의 가치는 기본분석에서 11,993~19,968천원, 낙관적인 경우 13,090~21,449천원 그리고 비관적인 경우에는 11,051~18,313천원으로 각각 분석되었으며, e-NPV의 값은 각각 153,515~161,489천원, 154,612~162,970천원, 152,573~159,835천원으로 분석되었으며, 투자효과의 가치가 단일 값이 아닌 구간으로 설정해 유동적인 자본투자 기대효과를 그대로 반영하고 있는 것을 알 수 있다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.87-95
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• 2021

본 연구는 새만금에 조성되는 환경생태용지사업의 실물옵션기법을 사용하여 경제성분석을 하였다. 30년 동안 운영하는 동안 수익에 영향을 주는 주요 요소들을 정의하였다. 수익의 변동성을 시나리오 분석방법으로 계산하여, 경영적 유연성을 적용할 수 있는 옵션 기반 분석방법을 제시하였다. 환경생태공원 경제성분석에 필요한 이용객수, 입장요금, 체험프로그램요금, 유지관리비용 등은 국내 유사한 환경생태공원의 사례를 분석하였다. 운영 중 포기할 수 있는 옵션권리를 가지는 것으로 가정하여 옵션가치를 계산하였다. B/C는 1미만의 값이 나오고, NPV는 음수로 나와 전통적인 경제성분석방법으로는 사업을 진행할 수가 없으나, 실물옵션분석으로 평가하면 사업의 가치가 상승하여 수익성을 확보할 수 있다. NPV(-466억원)과 옵션가치(281억원)의 가격차이 747억원의 가치상승이 발생하였다. 본 연구를 통해서 환경생태용지사업을 계획하려는 공공기관 및 민간사업자의 투자담당자는 본 연구에서 제시된 실물옵션기법을 활용하여 상황에 적절한 옵션을 선택하여 경제성분석을 할 수 있도록 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.76-82
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• 2016

기업의 의사결정은 실물옵션의 특성을 갖는 경우가 빈번하다. 이러한 옵션의 가치를 산정하는 일은 쉽지 않기 때문에 일방이 유리한, 즉 불평등한 계약이 맺어지는 경우 또한 흔하다. 기업의 합리적인 의사결정을 도모하기 위해서는 의사결정에 내장된 실물옵션의 성격을 정확하게 규명하고, 그 가치를 경제적으로 산정하는 방안이 체계화되어야 한다. 이에 본 연구는 건설 기업의 태양전지 구매 사례를 바탕으로 이 계약에 내장된 옵션을 분석하기 위한 프레임을 제시하였다. 또한, 이 상황에서 건설 기업이 취할 수 있는 두 가지 전략적 의사결정을 도출하고 이 전략이 갖는 가치 및 그 의미를 고찰하고자 하였다. 먼저 가격 상한의 성격을 규명하고 그 가치를 산정하였다. 그 다음으로 의사결정을 연기하는 전략을 취함으로써 얻을 수 있는 가치도 평가하였다

• 한국디지털건축인테리어학회논문집
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.5-12
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• 2010

Unlike housing development project that can ensure profit by selling built units, a hotel development depends on long-term business operation to be profitable due to characteristics of service industry. The expected cash flow has substantial uncertainty depending on room occupancy rate and room charge. Thus, even after construction is complete, business risk tends to rise. It is necessary to ensure strategic response to uncertainty in future value of a hotel. The objective of the study is to explore strategic measures to deal with risk and uncertain future value in hotel development project by adopting abandonment option, which is a type of real options. The case in analysis had sevenyears of project period: Two years for construction, and five years for operation; a plan was made to sell the hotel after five years' of operation. For the research purpose, option value ofrecoverable investment amount was estimated, and value of abandonment option was KRW 124.921 billion. When abandonment option is applied, the project value was deemed to be KRW 120.592 billion. Generally, the amount of loss is enormous when a real estate project like a hotel development fails, and therefore, application of option is expected to be an effective measure to leverage uncertainty of a project.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제33권7호
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• pp.469-476
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• 2009

Recent collapse of shipping market right after unprecedent surge clearly demonstrates that shipping industry is extremely risky. Due to the volatile movements of the freight rates, investors tend to ask higher rate of return; higher required return reduces the total net present value of the investment project. For several decades, the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF hereafter) analysis has been the most frequently used valuation technique. However, the main problem of the DCF analysis is its assumption that the discount rate would stay the same during the project life. In other words, it usually does not address the decisions that managers have after a project has been accepted. The purpose of this study is investigate a new valuation method of investment: the Real Option Analysis(ROA hereafter) on ship investment. By replacing the existing valuation methods with the new one, the research will present a new perspective on investment with uncertainty. While uncertainty increases risk of investment and consequently discounts the value of it in the traditional feasibility analysis, in the ROA, a new valuation method which will be addressed in the research, uncertainty means some additional value of flexibility so that the tool can help investors produce more accurate decisions. Contrary to the DCF analysis, the ROA takes managerial flexibilities into account. In reality, capital budgeting and project management is typically dynamic, rather than static in nature. The ROA finds and assesses the values of managerial flexibilities or real options in the investments. The main structures of the research will be as follows: (1) overview of the ship investment project, (2) evaluation of the project by the Net Present Value analysis, (3) evaluation of the same project by the Real Option Analysis, (4) comparision of the two techniques.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.459-487
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• 2011

포스트 교토체제에서는 A/R CDM 등 산림 분야의 중요성이 증대할 것으로 전망된다. A/R CDM에 대한 정확한 경제성 평가는 투자의사결정에 유용한 정보를 제공하여 투자 활성화로 이어질 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 전통적 경제성 평가 방법이 간과한 의사결정자의 의사결정권의 가치 내지 기다림의 가치를 반영한 실물옵션 방법에 의해 모형을 구축하고 실제 A/R CDM 사례를 적용하여 실증분석을 하였다. 그 결과 적용 사례의 경우 최적투자분기점이 추정된 l-CER의 가격보다 낮게 나타남으로써 적절한 투자의사결정이 이루어졌음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 할인율의 수준과 적용 범위에 따라 최적투자분기점과 투자의사결정이 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국기술혁신학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.181-198
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• 2002

This article describes a methodology for evaluating huge aerospace R&D investments using the real options pricing method. Option pricing has been proposed as a useful approach for modeling investment in R&D. Two important features of R&D investments are that an R&D project takes time to complete and that the outcome of R&D investments is highly uncertain. This makes the analysis of R&D investments difficult. Traditional tools for project evaluation, like IRR or the NPV, are inadequate for coping with the high uncertainty. Hence, In this article I propose a log-transformed binomal lattice method, and it will show that option pricing might be an adequate framework for evaluating such types of aerospace investments.