• Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.1-9
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• 2018

Recently, the rapid development of artificial intelligence industry has resulted in a great change in our modern society. Due to this background, this paper takes the United Kingdom as an example to explore the determinants of artificial intelligence industry in terms of United Kingdom's macroeconomics. The quarterly time series from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2017 will be employed to conduct an empirical analysis under the vector error correction model. In this paper, the real GDP, the employment figure, the real income, the foreign direct investment, the government budget and the inflation will be regarded as independent variables. The input of artificial intelligence industry will be regarded as a dependent variable. These macroeconomic variables will be applied to perform an empirical analysis so as to explore how the macroeconomic variables affect the artificial intelligence industry. The findings show that the real GDP, the real income, the foreign direct investment and the government budget are the driving determinants to promote the development of artificial intelligence industry. Conversely, the employment figure and the inflation is the obstructive determinants to hamper the development of artificial intelligence industry.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.105-140
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• 2004

Korea is entering the class of aging population nations. This paper investigates the extent demographic factors and the aging population affect the saving rate, using an extended life-cycle/permanent-income hypothesis on saving. The results of the tests with Korean household survey data from 1977 to 2002 reveal that real saving rates increase when the duration of lifetime and per household real disposable income rise, and decrease when the growth rate of income and net worth-to-GDP ratio rises. The growth rate of per household real disposable income has negative effects, suggesting that households calculate their life cycle income in a forward looking manner. The elasticities with respect to a change in the lifetime horizon and the growth rate of per household income are 0.58 and -0.03, respectively. A one percent rise in the net worth to GDP ratio reduces the saving rate by 0.3 percent. A one percent rise in per household income increases it by 0.33 percent. The younger-age and the elder-age dependency ratios have insignificant effects on the household saving rate behavior. When Korean life expectancy rises, the private saving rate declines modestly and the government saving rate declines substantially. The economy's real net saving rate declines from 33 percent in 2002 to 30 percent by the year 2030.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.13-24
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• 2022

The main goal of this study is to look at how South Korea can catch up to the rest of the world through policy-driven structural change and manufacturing revolutions. To achieve the objective, this study used annual data on real exports and real GDP from the World Development Indicator WDI of South Korea for the period 1960 to 2019. The study's goal is to use econometrics to detect this policy-driven structural change trend. Multiple nonlinear Granger causality test was used to accomplish this. The findings revealed structural breaks and nonlinearities in the dynamic link between South Korea's real GDP and real exports. Furthermore, results also show evidence of multiple structural breaks in South Korean data. South Korea's economic catch-up was the result of a constant reevaluation of industrial policies, readjustment, and structural change to constantly explore and utilize comparative advantage, realizing economies of scale at the global level, and reallocating and redistribution of resources towards productive sectors with high value-added output, according to econometric analysis. If South Korea would have not done this structural change this miracle to escape the middle-income trap would not have been possible. These findings support the descriptive evidence of structural change in favor of manufacturing revolutions and value addition industry development in South Korea.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.97-110
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• 1998

This paper tries to estimate Korea's import demand function for fisheries using cointegration analysis. The estimation function consists of one dependent variable-import quantity of fisheries(FTIW) and two independent variables-relative price(RP) between importable and domestic products and real income(GDP). As it has been empirically found out that almost all of time series of macro-variables such as GDP, price index are nonstationary, existing studies which ignore this fact need to be reexamined. Conventional econometric method can not analyze nonstationary time series in level. To perform the analysis, time series should be differenciated until stationarity is guaranteed. Unfortunately, the difference method removes the long run element of data, and so leads to difficulties of interpretation. But according to new developed econometric theory, cointegration approach could solve these problems. Therefore this paper proceeds the estimation on the basis of cointegration analysis, because the quartly variables from 1988 to 1997 used in the model is found out to be nonstationary. The estimation results show that all of the variables are statistically significant. Therefore Korea's import demand for fisheries has been strongly affected by the variation of real income and the relative price.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.97-115
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• 2012

This paper investigates the relationship between financial markets and output growth for a panel of 27 Asian countries over 1960-2009. It utilizes the recently-developed panel cointegration techniques to test and estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP and financial development proxies. Real GDP and financial development variables are found to have unit roots and to be cointegrated, based on various panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests. We find that there is a statistically significant positive bi-directional cointegrating relationship between financial development and output growth by three distinct methods of panel cointegration estimation. Empirical findings suggest that financial market development promotes output growth and in turn output growth stimulates further financial development.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.416-427
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• 2018

As the loan size of real estate PF is huge, its market ripple effect gets bigger when overdue occurs. Accordingly, the management of the delinquency rate and macroeconomic analysis are required. As the preceding research mainly proceeded with microeconomic analysis through the real estate PF data of individual banks to evaluate importance of list or analyzed core factors for delinquency, it lacked research on comprehensive real estate PF size. In order to overcome the limitations of such data, this research studied real estate PF delinquency rate of the entire market and effect relationship by the size. The research utilized the size of real estate PF loans, money supply, interest rate, consumer price index(CPI), and GDP data. Also, it applied the first model of VECM as linear relationship between at least two or more variables, following the result of co-integration test. As a result of Granger-causality test, the real estate PF loans delinquency rate is influenced by their loan size, and as a result of impulse response analysis, the interest rate is shown to be affecting delinquency rate the most. Interest rate could risesomeday and aggravate the delinquency rate of real estate PF. Also, risk exposure could be serious as the loan size increases.Therefore, the management of real estate PF delinquency rate requires continuous monitoring, tracking and observing issued loans from a macro point of view. The plans to prevent delinquency will be necessary.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.63-72
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• 2018

Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2008

This paper analyses the dynamic causal relationship between vessel export and economic growth using annual data over the period from 1977 to 2006. Tests for ADF unit-roots, the dynamic vector using Johansen's multiple cointegration procedure, dynamic vector error correction model and impulse response function are presented. The findings of the Granger test suggest that vessel export Granger-causes economic growth in the short-run and economic growth Granger-causes exports in the short and long-run. The empirical results of impulse-response analysis show that the vessel export to a shock in real GDP responds positively and the real GDP responds positively to the shocks in vessel export. Also, the results indicate that the impact of vessel export shock on the real GDP is short-lived.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.24-36
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• 2018

Purpose - From establishing China-Japan diplomatic relations in 1972, the relations between two states has improved a lot, from which makes the government and the people reap much benefit. Owing to this reason, this paper aims at exploiting the impact of exchange rate volatility of RMB on China's foreign direct investment to Japan. Research design and methodology - The quarterly time series data from 2003 to 2016 will be employed to conduct an empirical analysis under the vector error correction model. Meanwhile, a menu of estimated methods such the Johansen co-integration test and the Granger Causality test will be also used to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility of RMB on China's foreign direct investment to Japan. Results - The empirical analysis results exhibit that the real exchange rate has a positive effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. Conversely, the real exchange rate volatility of RMB, the trade openness and the real GDP have a negative effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. However, in the short run, the China's foreign direct investment to Japan, the real exchange rate, the trade openness and the real GDP in period have a negative effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in period. Oppositely, the real exchange rate volatility of RMB in period has a positive effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in period. Conclusions - From the empirical evidences in this paper provided, it can be concluded that an increase in the exchange rate volatility of RMB can result in a decrease in the China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. However, an increase in the exchange rate volatility of RMB can lead to an increase in the China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the short run. Therefore, the China's government should have a best control of the real exchange rate volatility of RMB so as to improve China's foreign direct investment to Japan.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.81-98
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• 2006

Many studies on port tariff have been done over twenty years using publicly assessed data on tariff. Public data for tariff rates do not reflect, however, the port tariff in a real market, since the cargo handling charge, which is the important fraction of port tariff, is confidentially decided by the negotiations between a shipping company and a container terminal operator. In this paper, we collected the real price data of the port tariff on the world major sixteen container ports from a global shipping company and transformed it into the tariff per TEU(US$/TEU). The comparative analysis of port tariff was performed using the port tariff per TEU, and a panel regression analysis was done to identify the relations between the port tariff and demand variables: throughput, GDP and trade amount.