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Application of Westgard Multi-Rules for Improving Nuclear Medicine Blood Test Quality Control (핵의학 검체검사 정도관리의 개선을 위한 Westgard Multi-Rules의 적용)

  • Jung, Heung-Soo;Bae, Jin-Soo;Shin, Yong-Hwan;Kim, Ji-Young;Seok, Jae-Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.115-118
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: The Levey-Jennings chart controlled measurement values that deviated from the tolerance value (mean ${\pm}2SD$ or ${\pm}3SD$). On the other hand, the upgraded Westgard Multi-Rules are actively recommended as a more efficient, specialized form of hospital certification in relation to Internal Quality Control. To apply Westgard Multi-Rules in quality control, credible quality control substance and target value are required. However, as physical examinations commonly use quality control substances provided within the test kit, there are many difficulties presented in the calculation of target value in relation to frequent changes in concentration value and insufficient credibility of quality control substance. This study attempts to improve the professionalism and credibility of quality control by applying Westgard Multi-Rules and calculating credible target value by using a commercialized quality control substance. Materials and Methods : This study used Immunoassay Plus Control Level 1, 2, 3 of Company B as the quality control substance of Total T3, which is the thyroid test implemented at the relevant hospital. Target value was established as the mean value of 295 cases collected for 1 month, excluding values that deviated from ${\pm}2SD$. The hospital quality control calculation program was used to enter target value. 12s, 22s, 13s, 2 of 32s, R4s, 41s, $10\bar{x}$, 7T of Westgard Multi-Rules were applied in the Total T3 experiment, which was conducted 194 times for 20 days in August. Based on the applied rules, this study classified data into random error and systemic error for analysis. Results: Quality control substances 1, 2, and 3 were each established as 84.2 ng/$dl$, 156.7 ng/$dl$, 242.4 ng/$dl$ for target values of Total T3, with the standard deviation established as 11.22 ng/$dl$, 14.52 ng/$dl$, 14.52 ng/$dl$ respectively. According to error type analysis achieved after applying Westgard Multi-Rules based on established target values, the following results were obtained for Random error, 12s was analyzed 48 times, 13s was analyzed 13 times, R4s was analyzed 6 times, for Systemic error, 22s was analyzed 10 times, 41s was analyzed 11 times, 2 of 32s was analyzed 17 times, $10\bar{x}$ was analyzed 10 times, and 7T was not applied. For uncontrollable Random error types, the entire experimental process was rechecked and greater emphasis was placed on re-testing. For controllable Systemic error types, this study searched the cause of error, recorded the relevant cause in the action form and reported the information to the Internal Quality Control committee if necessary. Conclusions : This study applied Westgard Multi-Rules by using commercialized substance as quality control substance and establishing target values. In result, precise analysis of Random error and Systemic error was achieved through the analysis of 12s, 22s, 13s, 2 of 32s, R4s, 41s, $10\bar{x}$, 7T rules. Furthermore, ideal quality control was achieved through analysis conducted on all data presented within the range of ${\pm}3SD$. In this regard, it can be said that the quality control method formed based on the systematic application of Westgard Multi-Rules is more effective than the Levey-Jennings chart and can maximize error detection.

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The 1998, 1999 Patterns of Care Study for Breast Irradiation after Mastectomy in Korea (1998, 1999년도 우리나라에서 시행된 근치적 유방 전절제술 후 방사선치료 현황 조사)

  • Keum,, Ki-Chang;Shim, Su-Jung;Lee, Ik-Jae;Park, Won;Lee, Sang-Wook;Shin, Hyun-Soo;Chung, Eun-Ji;Chie, Eui-Kyu;Kim, Il-Han;Oh, Do-Hoon;Ha, Sung-Whan;Lee, Hyung-Sik;Ahn, Sung-Ja
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2007
  • [ $\underline{Purpose}$ ]: To determine the patterns of evaluation and treatment in patients with breast cancer after mastectomy and treated with radiotherapy. A nationwide study was performed with the goal of improving radiotherapy treatment. $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: A web- based database system for the Korean Patterns of Care Study (PCS) for 6 common cancers was developed. Randomly selected records of 286 eligible patients treated between 1998 and 1999 from 17 hospitals were reviewed. $\underline{Results}$: The ages of the study patients ranged from 20 to 80 years (median age 44 years). The pathologic T stage by the AJCC was T1 in 9.7% of the cases, T2 in 59.2% of the cases, T3 in 25.6% of the cases, and T4 in 5.3% of the cases. For analysis of nodal involvement, N0 was 7.3%, N1 was 14%, N2 was 38.8%, and N3 was 38.5% of the cases. The AJCC stage was stage I in 0.7% of the cases, stage IIa in 3.8% of the cases, stage IIb in 9.8% of the cases, stage IIIa in 43% of the cases, stage IIIb in 2.8% of the cases, and IIIc in 38.5% of the cases. There were various sequences of chemotherapy and radiotherapy after mastectomy. Mastectomy and chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy was the most commonly performed sequence in 47% of the cases. Mastectomy, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy followed by additional chemotherapy was performed in 35% of the cases, and neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was performed in 12.5% of the cases. The radiotherapy volume was chest wall only in 5.6% of the cases. The volume was chest wall and supraclavicular fossa (SCL) in 20.3% of the cases; chest wall, SCL and internal mammary lymph node (IMN) in 27.6% of the cases; chest wall, SCL and posterior axillary lymph node in 25.9% of the cases; chest wall, SCL, IMN, and posterior axillary lymph node in 19.9% of the cases. Two patients received IMN only. The method of chest wall irradiation was tangential field in 57.3% of the cases and electron beam in 42% of the cases. A bolus for the chest wall was used in 54.8% of the tangential field cases and 52.5% of the electron beam cases. The radiation dose to the chest wall was $45{\sim}59.4\;Gy$ (median 50.4 Gy), to the SCL was $45{\sim}59.4\;Gy$ (median 50.4 Gy), and to the PAB was $4.8{\sim}38.8\;Gy$, (median 9 Gy) $\underline{Conclusion}$: Different and various treatment methods were used for radiotherapy of the breast cancer patients after mastectomy in each hospital. Most of treatment methods varied in the irradiation of the chest wall. A separate analysis for the details of radiotherapy planning also needs to be followed and the outcome of treatment is needed in order to evaluate the different processes.

Prognosis Factors of Tricuspid Regurgitation after the Operation for Left-sided Valvular Heart Disease (좌심실 판막질환 수술 후 동반된 삼첨판패쇄부전증의 경과에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Jin, Ung;Kim, Hwan-Wook;Lee, Jong-Ho;Kweon, Jong-Bum;Jo, Min-Seop;Yoon, Jeong-Seob;Moon, Seok-Whan;Sim, Sung-Bo;Park, Kuhn;Kim, Chi-Kyung;Cho, Keon-Hyun;Wang, Young-Pil;Lee, Sun-He;Kwack, Moon-Sub
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2003
  • Tricuspid regurgitation has been considered as a secondary lesion when it is combined with left valvular heart diseases. However, there have been some reports which show that tricuspid regurgitation keeps going and results in congestive heart failure even after a successful operation for left valvular heart disease. So far, there are no definite operation indications and predictive factors for the tricuspid re-gurgitation which is resulted from the left sided valvular heart disease. We designed this study to evaluate the effects of pulmonary artery pressure and left ventricular ejection fraction on the prognosis of tricuspid regurgitation, and to make an operation indication for the patients with secondary tricuspid regurgitation. Material and Method: We reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent surgery for the left sided valvular heart disease with tricuspid regurgitation and were followed for more than 1 year with echocardiograms. There was a total of 114 cases. We compared the grades of tricuspid regurgitations and pulmonary artery pressures and left ventricular ejection fractions on the basis of echocardiograms which were checked preoperatively and on the last follow up. Result: There were 43 cases of tricuspid an-nuloplasty. In these patients, the grades of tricuspid regurgitations were improved in 42 cases (97.7%). But in 71 cases without annuloplasty, 29 cases (41%) were improved, 32 cases (45%) had no change, and 29 cases (14%) were aggravated. This finding shows significant differences in the prognoses of tricuspid regur-gitations between the two groups (p<0.05). There was no difference in pulmonary artery pressures and ejection fractions between the patients who showed progression of tricuspid regurgitations and those who didn't (p > 0.05). The improvements of tricuspid regurgitations are not statistically related to the changes of pulmonary artery pressures or left ventricular ejection fractions. Conclusion: This study shows that it is impossible to predict the prognoses of tricuspid regurgitations with preoperative pulmonary artery pressures or left ventricular ejection fractions. Also, the excellent results of tricuspid annuloplasty is proven in controlling the secondary tricuspid regurgitations. Therefore, when tricuspid regurgitation is detected preoperatively, the procedures to correct the tricuspid regurgitation at the time of the operation for the left-sided valvular heart disease must be considered positively, regardless of the grades of tricuspid regurgitations, to prevent sig-nificant tricuspid regurgitation that may develop later.

Tc-99m ECD Brain SPECT in MELAS Syndrome and Mitochondrial Myopathy: Comparison with MR findings (MELAS 증후군과 미토콘드리아 근육병에서의 Tc-99m ECD 뇌단일 광전자방출 전산화단층촬영 소견: 자기공명영상과의 비교)

  • Park, Sang-Joon;Ryu, Young-Hoon;Jeon, Tae-Joo;Kim, Jai-Keun;Nam, Ji-Eun;Yoon, Pyeong-Ho;Yoon, Choon-Sik;Lee, Jong-Doo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.490-496
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: We evaluated brain perfusion SPECT findings of MELAS syndrome and mitochondrial myopathy in correlation with MR imaging in search of specific imaging features. Materials and Methods: Subjects were five patients (four females and one male; age range, 1 to 25 year) who presented with repeated stroke-like episodes, seizures or developmental delay or asymptomatic but had elevated lactic acid in CSF and serum. Conventional non-contrast MR imaging and Tc-99m-ethyl cysteinate dimer (ECD) brain perfusion SPECT were Performed and imaging features were analyzed. Results: MRI demonstrated increased T2 signal intensities in the affected areas of gray and white matters mainly in the parietal (4/5) and occipital lobes (4/5) and in the basal ganglia (1/5), which were not restricted to a specific vascular territory. SPECT demonstrated decreased perfusion in the corresponding regions of MRI lesions. In addition, there were perfusion defects in parietal (1 patient), temporal (2), and frontal (1) lobes and basal ganglia (1) and thalami (2). In a patient with mitochondrial myopathy who had normal MRI, decreased perfusion was noted in left parietal area and bilateral thalami. Conclusion: Tc-99m ECD SPECT imaging in patients with MELAS syndrome and mitochondrial myopathy showed hypoperfusion of parieto-occipital cortex, basal ganglia, thalamus and temporal cortex, which were not restricted to a specific vascular territory. There were no specific imaging features on SPECT. The significance of abnormal perfusion on SPECT without corresponding MR abnormalities needs to be evaluated further in larger number of patients.

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A Study on the Determination of Scan Speed in Whole Body Bone Scan Applying Oncoflash (Oncoflash를 적용한 전신 뼈 영상 검사의 스캔 속도 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Gwang-Gil;Jung, Woo-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.56-60
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The various studies and efforts to develop program are in progress in the field of nuclear medicine for the purpose of reducing scan time. The Oncoflash is one of the programs used in whole body bone scan which allows to maintain the image quality while to reduce scan time. When Those applications are used in clinical setting, both the image quality and reduction of scan time should be considered, therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the criteria for proper scan speed. Materials and Methods: The subjects of this study were the patients who underwent whole body bone scan at the departments of nuclear medicine in the Asan Medical Center located in Seoul from 1st to 10th, July, 2008. The whole body bone images obtained in the scan speed of 30cm/min were classified by the total counts into under 800 K, and over 800 K, 900 K, 1,000 K, 1,500 K, and 2,000 K. The image quality were assessed qualitatively and the percentages of those of 1,000K and under of total counts were calculated. The FWHM before and after applying the Oncoflash were analyzed using images obtained in $^{99m}Tc$ Flood and 4-Quadrant bar phantom in order to compare the resolution according to the amount of total counts by the application of the Oncoflash. Considering the counts of the whole body bone scan, the dosed 2~5 mCi were used. 152 patients underwent the measurement in which the counts of Patient Postioning Monitor (PPM) were measured with including head and the parts of chest which the starting point of whole body bone scan from 7th to 26th, August, 2008. The correlations with total counts obtained in the scan speed of 30cm/min among them were analyzed (The exclusion criteria were after over six hours of applying isotopes or low amount of doses). Results: The percentage of the whole body bone image which has the geometric average of total counts of under 1,000K among them obtained in the scan speed of 30cm/min were 17.6%(n=58) of 329 patients. The qualitative analysis of the image groups according to the whole body counts showed that the images of under 1,000K were assessed to have coarse particles and increased noises. The analysis on the FWHM of the images before and after applying the Oncoflash showed that, in the case of PPM counts of under 3.6 K, FWHM values after applying the Oncoflash were higher than that before applying the Oncoflash, whereas, in the case of that of over 3.6 K, the FWHM after applying the Oncoflash were not higher than that before applying the Oncoflash. The average of total counts at 2.5~3.0 K, 3.1~3.5 K, 3.6~4.0 k, 4.1~4.5 K, 4.6~5.0 K, 5.1~6.0 K, 6.1~7.0 K, and 7.1 K over (in PPM) were $965{\pm}173\;K$, $1084{\pm}154\;K$, $1242{\pm}186\;K$, $1359{\pm}170\;K$, $1405{\pm}184\;K$, $1640{\pm}376\;K$, $1,771{\pm}324\;K$, and $1,972{\pm}385\;K$, respectively and the correlations between the counts in PPM and the total counts of image obtained in the scan speed of 30 cm/min demonstrated strong correlation (r=.775, p<.01). Conclusions: In the case of PPM coefficient over 3.6 K, the image quality obtained in the scan speed of 30cm/min and after applying the Oncoflash was similar to that obtained in the scan speed of 15 cm/min. In the case of total counts over 1,000 K, it is expected to reduce scan time without any damage on the image quality. In the case of total counts under 1,000 K, however, the image quality were decreased even though the Oncoflash is applied, so it is recommended to perform the re-image in the scan speed of 15 cm/min.

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A Survey on Consumption Behaviors of the Fast-Foods in University Students (대학생의 패스트푸드 소비행태에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Kyu-Seok;Im, Byoung-Soon;Kim, Seok-Eun;Kim, Gye-Woong
    • Korean Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.313-319
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    • 2005
  • This survey was conducted in order to obtain the basic data for desirable consumption habits through investigation and analysis of university students' fast food consumption behaviors. Questionnaires were collected from a total of 374 male and female students living in big or small and medium-sized cities in August, 2004. The contents surveyed were utilization and expenses of fast foods, choice of fast foods, relationship between fast foods and a diet, and characteristics of fast food restaurants. The results obtained are summarized as follows: 1. The ratio of the surveyees varied according to gender, residence, and the size of a city they're living in. For example, males took up 48.66% of the surveyees, while females did 51.34%. The ratio of residents in apartments and stand-alone houses was 54.81% and 45.19% each. 47.33% of the respondents were living in big cities, while 52.67% of them in small and medium-sized cities. 2. 70.1% of the surveyees responded that they are with friends when having fast foods. There was a highly significant difference between male and female in the type of eating companions (p<0.001). The average number of days that they eat fast foods was 1 to 2 times a week, which accounted for 63.7% of the respondents. However, in the case of eating foods, there was no significant differences between two sexes. 3. 64.2% of the surveyees paid more than 20,000 won to buy fast foods for a week, which showed no significant differences between genders. They tend to split a bill, rather than one person pays all. There was a highly significant difference between genders in paying method (p<0.001). 4. 52.1 % of the respondents chose a menu themselves. Their most favored food was chickens (26.5%), which showed a statistically significant difference between genders (p<0.001). 46.8% of them preferred coke as a drink, which had no significant difference between genders. 42.2% of the surveyees had fast foods between lunch and dinner, which also had no significant difference between genders. The most important factor in choosing a menu was its taste (62.8%), which indicated a significant difference between males and females (p<0.05). 5. The preference to fast foods was due to the influence of western culture (36.4%) and eating-out habits (29.1%), which was significantly different between genders (p<0.05). Those who eat fast foods answered they have normal weight and normal body type (49.5%). 24.3% of them were relatively fat with significant difference between genders (p<0.05). 63.4% of the surveyees thought themselves not picky with foods, and there was a significant difference between genders (p<0.05). 78.3% of them mostly preferred franchise restaurants because they are convenient and cheap.

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Second allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in children to overcome graft failure or relapse after initial transplant (조혈모세포이식 후 생착 실패나 재발한 소아환자에서 2차 이식의 의의)

  • Kim, Dong-Yeon;Kim, Do Kyun;Kim, Soo Young;Kim, Seok Joo;Han, Dong Gyun;Baek, Hee Jo;Kook, Hoon;Hwang, Tai-Ju
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.49 no.12
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    • pp.1329-1339
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    • 2006
  • Purpose : Failure of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation(HSCT) may be encountered in practice because of either relapse of the malignancy or dysfunction of the graft. Second HSCT may be the only option for some patients whose initial HSCT failed. Methods : From May, 1991 to December, 2004, 115 HSCTs were performed at the Pediatric Blood & Marrow Transplantation Center, Chonnam National University. This study was a retrospective analysis of the medical records of 15 patients who received the second HSCT after initial graft. Results : Among eight patients with nonmalignant diseases, two patients underwent the second HSCT because of primary graft failure and five because of late graft rejection. The remaining Fanconi anemia patient was re-transplanted due to development of AML. Two patients died and one experienced primary graft failure, but is still alive. The Kaplan-Meier 5-year overall survival rate was 75 percent and the disease free survival rate was 62.5 percent in nonmalignant diseases. All malignant patients underwent second transplants because of relapses. Four died of relapse and one of treatment-related complications. The Kaplan-Meier 2-year overall and event free survival rate was 28.6 percent each in malignant diseases. Conclusion : Second HSCT for graft dysfunction of nonmalignant disease seems to be feasible and should be considered as a standard practice. The relapse of malignant diseases remains a big obstacle even after the second HSCT, although a small portion of patients might be salvaged. Further investigation of novel therapeutic strategies, as well an the understanding of the biology should be explored.

Immunogenicity and Safety of a Haemophilus influenzae Type b Polysaccharide-Tetanus Toxoid Conjugate Vaccine (PRP-T: HiberixTM) in Korean Infants (우리나라 영아에서 PRP-T(HiberixTM)백신의 면역원성 및 안전성에 대한 연구)

  • Chung, Eun Hee;Kim, Yae Jean;Kim, Yun Kyung;Kim, Dong Ho;Seo, Jeong Wan;Lee, Hoan Jong
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Four kinds of Haemophilus influenzae type b protein conjugate vaccines, PRPD, PRP-T, PRP-OMP and PRP-CRM197, have been developed, and PRP-T vaccines are currently produced by two manufacturer, $ActHib^{(R)}$ by Aventis and $Hiberix^{TM}$ by GlaxoSmith-Kline Biologicals. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of $Hiberix^{TM}$ in Korean infants. Methods : Seventy-three healthy infants(43 male infants) were recruited for this study after parental informed consent was obtained. Each infant was vaccinated at 2, 4 and 6 months of age with the study vaccine. At each visit, infants were also immunized with DTaP, trivalent oral polio vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine when indicated. The serum anti-PRP antibody was measured at prevaccination, 2 month later after the 2nd dose, and 1 month later after the 3rd dose by the ELISA method. The local and systemic adverse reactions of vaccination were monitored for 3 consecutive days after each immunization. Immunogenicity of vaccine was evaluated in infants who received all the scheduled immunization and the adverse reactions were evaluated for infants who received at least one dose of the study vaccine. Results : Among seventy three infants, enrolled in this study; sixty three(37 male infants) completed all the scheduled immunizations. The geometric mean titer(GMT) of anti-PRP antibodies at prevaccination was 0.17 ${\mu}g/mL$(95% confidence interval[CI]; 0.13~0.22). The GMT of anti-PRP antibodies increased to 4.14 ${\mu}g/mL$(95% CI; 2.65~6.48) at 2 month later after the 2nd dose of PRP-T and 14.65 ${\mu}g/mL$(95% CI; 10.83~19.81) at 1 month later after the 3rd dose. Anti-PRP antibody ${\geq}0.15$ ${\mu}g/mL$, was observed in 98.4%(95% CI; 91.8~100) after 2 doses and 100%(95% CI; 100~100) after 3 doses. Anti-PRP antibody ${\geq}1.0$ ${\mu}g/mL$, was obtained in 77.8%(95% CI; 67.5~88.0) after 2 doses, and 98.4%(95% CI; 95.3~100) after 3 doses. Most of the adverse reaction after vaccination were mild. Irritability, the most common systemic reaction, was observed in 45.5%, followed by drowsiness(30.5%), poor feeding(26.7%) and fever(5.6%). Among the local reactions tenderness was observed in 7.9%, redness(${\geq}5$ mm) in 2.8% and swelling(${\geq}5$ mm) in 1.8%. Conclusion : The PRP-T vaccine used in this study was highly immunogenic and safe in Korean young infants. The finding that high GMT and high frequency of infants with a protective titer achieved after 2 doses is consistent with the previous studies which were done with a PRP-T vaccine of other manufacturer. This study suggests that the immunization schedule of PRP-T vaccine for Korean infants may need re-evaluation.

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Study on Spring Cocoon Crops with the Leaf Produced in the Mulberry Field close to the Totacco Field (개량 Mulching 담배밭 부근뽕잎이 춘잠작에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 이상풍;김정배;김계명;박광준
    • Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 1974
  • The studies are to know how much cocoon crops is damaged by the stained leaf with nicotine produced from the tobacco field cultivated in mulching system in spring season and by residual nicotine in autumn season. Furthermore, the new knowledges are to make both industries keep up with their development. In spring season mulberry Held is located higher on the West-North of tobacco held below 20 degrees of slope and with 36 per cent of East-South wind and 18 per cent of South wind blowing from tobacco fold to the mulberry fold. In addition, silkworm larvae are fed with the mulberry leaf produced in the different plots placing by the different distances, l0m, 25m, 50m, 80m, and loom far from the tobacco Held as a control and it is also considered that narcotic larvae including the dead larvae are not observed. On the other hand, it is noted that better leaf quality and abundant growth of mulberry tree is produced from the mulberry fold closer to the tobacco field and with a low slope. 1) Maximum weight of larval body at the 5th stage is damaged by the stained leaf with the nicotine up to 25m far from the tobacco held. 2) The larvae fed with the mulberry leaf in mulberry Held up to 25m far from the tobacco fold produce small number of the fresh cocoons per 1 liter. 3) Low single cocoon weight and low cocoon shell weight are produced by the poison damaged larvae fed with the mulberry. leaf up to 25m far from the tobacco field and weight of cocoon shell is damaged higher than the single cocoon weight. It is resulted in low percentage of cocoon shell. 4) Cocoon yield including the double cocoon from 10,000 larvae is decreased by the larvae fed with the stained leaf in the mulberry fold up to 25m far from the tobacco fold and 19 per cent of cocoon yield is decreased with 2.4kg of cocoon yield in l0m plot and with 2.5kg of cocoon yield in 25m plot at the first season and at the 2nd season with 1.8kg o( cocoon yield in l0m plot and with 11.5kg of cocoon yield in 25m plot, 11 per cent and 9 per cent of cocoon yield including double cocoon from 10,000 larvae is decreased, as compared with the control, respectively. With these results, it is observed that nicotine damage is occurred to the silkworm larvae if the larvae are fed with the leaf in the mulberry Held within 25m-50m far from the tobacco field.

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A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.