• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rational Expectation

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A Variability Analysis on the Flatfish Production and Revenue using Expectation Hypotheses and GARCH Model

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo;Yoon, Ji-Young
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2017
  • This work studies the variability of flatfish sales revenue. The theoretical analysis draws functions for equilibrium price and quantity using expectation hypotheses. The functions include unpredictable phenomenon with dummy variable and GARCH. The equilibrium function, using adaptive expectation hypothesis, contains the independent variables of supply and demand, while the equilibrium function, embodying rational expectation hypothesis, includes only the independent variables of supply side, because the demand side disappears by the information extraction process theoretically, if economic subjects build the expectation rational. The empirical analysis shows: the variability of flatfish production has a spillover effect on the variability of revenue with the adaptive expectation hypothesis. In the case when the model has a rational expectation hypothesis, the variability of flatfish production has a spillover effect on the revenue (the mean equation of GARCH model). This study indicates that there is the variability in flatfish production and sales revenue, and the spillover effect between them. The result can help to build of the rational system for the fishery income stability.

The Impact of Consumers' Should-expectation and Will-expectation on Consumer Satisfaction: Focusing on Emotional and Rational Expectancy Disconfirmation (규범적 기대와 예언적 기대가 소비자 만족에 미치는 영향: 감정적 vs. 이성적 기대불일치를 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung;Lee, Dongwon;Chung, Jaekwon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.245-255
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    • 2016
  • Consumer expectation is divided into rational and emotional components with regard to the experience of products or services. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between these two types of expectations and consumer satisfaction. For the theoretical framework, we use the dual expectation theory with respect to the should-expectation and will-expectation, and verify their effects on consumer satisfaction. The findings of this study imply that under rational expectation, consumer satisfaction increases when the result of their experience exceeds their expectation and the impact is stronger when the will-expectation is satisfied. Under emotional expectation, consumer satisfaction increases when the should-expectation exceeds the result of the actual performance, but decreases when there is disaccord between the will-expectation and performance. For emotional-based expectation, the impact on consumer satisfaction is stronger for should-expectancy disconfirmation than for will-expectancy disconfirmation.

Associations between Mother and Child Temperament and Parenting Attitude (어머니와 아동의 기질과 양육태도 관계 연구)

  • Yu, Gyung;Kim, Lakhyung
    • The Journal of Pediatrics of Korean Medicine
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.38-43
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relations between mother's temperament and child's and parenting attitude. Methods: One hundred twenty healthy mothers (above 20 ys) who has a child (7-11 ys) participated after informed consent. The temperament of the children was analyzed by the Junior Temperament and Character Inventory 7-11 (JTCI 7-11) by their mothers. The temperament of the mothers was analyzed by the Temperament and Character Inventory-Revised Short (TCI-RS) and the parenting attitude of the mothers was analyzed by the Parenting Attitude Test (PAT). The relations between mother and child temperament and parenting attitude were assessed using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Results: There were some significant correlations between maternal temperaments and child's temperaments and maternal parenting attitude. Maternal temperament and parenting attitude: Novelty seeking (NS) of mother had low positive correlations with punishment, high expectation and inconsistency. Harm avoidance (HA) had low positive correlations with high involvement and high expectation, and had weak negative correlations with supportive expression and rational explanation. Reward dependence (RD) had low positive correlation with rational explanation. Persistence (P) had low positive correlations with supportive expression, rational explanation and superintendence, and weak negative correlation with high expectation. Child's temperament and parenting attitude: NS of child had low positive correlations with achievement press, high involvement, punishment, high expectation and inconsistency. Low positive correlations were found in many sets such as HA and high expectation, RD and supportive expression and rational explanation, P and supportive expression and rational explanation. Conclusions: These results suggest that there are significant relations between mother and child temperament and parenting attitude the temperament of mother and child.

A Study on the Expectation Change of Economic Subjects in Stock Market - Focusing on Effect of Change in Money Supply Before and After a Currency Crisis- (주식시장에 대한 경제주체들의 기대 변화에 관한 연구 - 외환위기 전후의 통화량 변화의 영향을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Ji-Yeol
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.125-148
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    • 2004
  • This paper deals with the relationship between money supply and the stock market. However, unlike past works, it has employed a rational expectation hypothesis and an efficient market hypothesis drawn from new classical macroeconomics and new Keynesian macro-economics, respectively. Accordingly, hypothesis 1 states that if economic subjects have rational expectation, they will immediately respond to a change in money supply. On the other hand, hypothesis 2 supposes that the expectation of economic subjects has changed after the currency crisis. This paper has first identified unit root by using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Phillips-Perron test, then testing both hypotheses by employing the Johansen Procedure and vector error correction model for the periods before and after a currency crisis.

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A Study of Characteristics of Expectation in Inflation Dynamics (물가동학에서 기대변수의 특성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jaejoon
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.95-120
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    • 2014
  • This paper attempts to demonstrate the critical role of expectation horizons in economic agents building their expectations for the future. It starts with the analysis of what constraints the economics-based assumption related to information efficiency could impose in the stochastic process, and then suggests a new concept, random revision of expectation, to refer to the case when the adjustment process of expected variables employs newly generated information only. According to the inflation dynamics formula drawn under this condition, the demand pressure measured by output gap is found to cause different impacts on inflation according to different expectation horizons. The empirical analysis of this model using the data on Korea reveals that a short expectation horizon causes coefficient estimates to become small and statistically less significant.

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THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE UNDER RATIONAL EXPECTATION (이성적(理性的) 기대하(期待下)의 환율행태분석(換率行態分析))

  • Yu, Il-Seong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.31-62
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    • 1989
  • By using deterministic dynamic models, we observe the behavior of the foreign exchange rate of a small open economy with rational expectation formation and different restrictions on the international economic integrations. First, an economy connected to the world by purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity is studied in the next section. In both sections, financial assets available in the economy are domestic money and bonds. Stocks are added as a financial instrument in the next section, and real capital accumulation is also taken into account. Furthermore, the economy concerned there is fairly autonomous, and not directly governed by either purchasing power parity or uncovered interest parity. The expectation formation used throughout the whole paper is complete perfect foresight, which is the certainty version of rational expectation and free from any forecast errors. It is found that upon monetary expansion the short run depreciation of the foreign exchange rate is a fairly robust result regardless of the degree of the international economic integration, while it is not true for fiscal expansion. The expectation on the long run state significantly affects the short run response of the exchange rate. All of our models postulate that the current account should be balanced eventually. As the result, the short run behavior of the exchange rate is affected by the expectation on the long run balance and may well be a blend of the traditional flow view and modem asset view. The initial overshooting of the exchange rate is easily observed even in the fairly autonomous economy Furthermore, the initial overshooting is not reduced over time, but augmented for some time before it is eventually eliminated. As long as we maintain rational expectaion, introducing time delay in the adjustment of the foreign goods price to the foreign exchange rate does not make much difference.

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Effects of the Parenting Attitude on Children's Thinking Ability (유아의 사고능력에 대한 부모 양육태도의 영향)

  • Lim, Ho-Chan
    • Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.613-634
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    • 2008
  • This Study focused on understanding the relationship between the child ren's thinking ability which is based on the genius and the parenting attitude according to their level of age. There were 401subjects including mothers and their children who lived in Seoul city ages from four to six. The Raven CPM testing method for children and the parenting attitude test were used as research tools. Subcategories of the parenting attitude test consisted of the supportive expression, the rational explanation, the achievement press, high involvement, punishment, superintendence, high expectation, and inconsequence. Results showed that by age four children's thinking abilities were affected by the rational explanation, the achievement press, punishment, and superintendence. At age five, the supportive expression and superintendence were important factors to the thinking ability. By age six children were affected by the supportive expression, the rational explanation, punishment and high expectation. It was also discussed the positive or negative effects of the parenting attitude sub-scales to the development of the thinking ability. These results showed the parenting attitudes need to be changed according to the child's age for getting more resonable results to their children's thinking ability.

Consumer Satisfaction Model for Cyber Learning: Focused on Expectation-disconfirmation Paradigm (가상강의에 대한 소비자만족모델: 기대불일치 패러다임을 중심으로)

  • Yoo, Hyun-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.295-310
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    • 2010
  • This study measured college students' levels of satisfaction with their cyber learning through an online survey of students who had taken one or more cyber learning before. 500 returned and usable questionnaires were analyzed and SPSS WIN 12.0 was used for the descriptive statistics, t-test, factor analysis and analysis of covariance structures. The results are as follows; First, college students were very interested in their cyber learning. Their decision to take the cyber learning was initiated more by emotional motives (m=3.13) than by rational motives (m=3.35). Second, the consumers' expectations for the cyber learning were divided into the 'Expectation for service quality' and the 'Expectation for economy,' and their 'Expectation for economy'(m=4.02) was higher than their 'Expectations for service quality'(m=3.60). Third, the consumers' expectations for the cyber learning and the results of the cyber learning were analyzed, and a discrepancy between these two were also analyzed. The analysis of discrepancy between the two showed that the average of the results was lower than that of the expectations, which means that the cyber learning did not meet the consumers' expectations in every aspect, However, the average satisfaction level was 3.20, which means consumers were satisfied with the cyber learning overall. Fourth, causes of dissatisfaction with the cyber learning were divided into internal factors due to personal matters and external factors due to classes and other factors. It was found that dissatisfaction due to internal factors was greater than that due to external factors. Lastly, the factors affecting satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the cyber learning and willingness to use it again were analyzed. The results showed that the motive for its use affected the formation of expectation but it did not affect the results. Satisfaction with the cyber learning affected the willingness to use it again positively. However, the effect of dissatisfaction on the willingness to use it again was not statistically significant.

Testing the Convergence of Military Expenditure and Arms Imports in Northeast Asian Countries (동북아 국가의 국방비 지출 및 군수물자 수입 수렴성 검정)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.475-487
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    • 2013
  • The aim of this study is to examine an existence of mutual interdependency in terms of military expenditure and arms imports between Northeast Asian countries such as South Korea, North Korea, China, Japan, and U.S. Recently, the mood of post cold war and intensified globalization lead to be disarmament in pursuing a policy on national defence in many countries. Since potential menace to national security has been receiving more concern rather than a direct armed clash, mutual interdependency on military spending should be fully understood. For a methodological tools, ${\beta}$ and ${\sigma}$-convergences, convergence with rational expectation, and Granger causality test are employed. Empirical evidence shows that the convergences which are evaluated by ${\beta}$, ${\sigma}$, and by a model based on rational expectation are in general revealed, and differences are more sensitive to a military decision making procedures. Granger causality, however, is not being existed. To this end, it would be concluded that the Northeast Asian countries are going with a trend in the world than forming their own tendency in this region.

A Study on Development of Color and Image Marketing Strategies for the LOHAS & Nomadic Consumer in Foodservice Industry (로하스와 노메딕 소비자층을 위한 외식산업에서의 컬러와 이미지 마케팅에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Hea-Jin;Kim, Yoon-Sung
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.50-66
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    • 2004
  • We defined life style as something that every members of society have in common. These social and cultural environments build up not only society group or every individual's expectation but also its own life style. In that way, these social and cultural environments leads to particular consumer behavior pattern in this food-service industry. So we regard next generation's trend which consists of rational consumers as important indicator when we make future's plan in foodservice industry. We consider smart map which needs rational and continuous consume pattern as the construction of next generation's main consumer class. Therefore, this study tried to develop of color and image marketing strategies to attract LOHAS and nomadic consumer.

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