• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rate theory

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Development of a Business Model for Korean Insurance Companies with the Analysis of Fiduciary Relationship Persistency Rate (신뢰관계 유지율 분석을 통한 보험회사의 비즈니스 모델 개발)

  • 최인수;홍복안
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.188-205
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    • 2001
  • Insurer's duty of declaration is based on reciprocity of principle of the highest good, and recently it is widely recognized in the British and American insurance circles. The conception of fiduciary relationship is no longer equity or the legal theory which is only confined to the nations with Anglo-American laws. Therefore, recognizing the fiduciary relationship as the essence of insurance contract, which is more closely related to public interest than any other fields. will serve an efficient measure to seek fair and reasonable relationship with contractor, and provide legal foundation which permits contractor to bring an action for damage against violation of insurer's duty of declaration. In the future, only when the fiduciary relationship is approved as the essence of insurance contract, the business performance and quality of insurance industry is expected to increase. Therefore, to keep well this fiduciary relationship, or increase the fiduciary relationship persistency rates seems to be the bottom line in the insurance industry. In this paper, we developed a fiduciary relationship maintenance ratio based on comparison by case, which is represented with usually maintained contract months to paid months, based on each contract of the basis point. In this paper we have developed a new business model seeking the maximum profit with low cost and high efficiency, management policy of putting its priority on its substantiality, as an improvement measure to break away from the vicious circle of high cost and low efficiency, and management policy of putting its priority on its external growth(expansion of market share).

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A hybrid algorithm for the synthesis of computer-generated holograms

  • Nguyen The Anh;An Jun Won;Choe Jae Gwang;Kim Nam
    • Proceedings of the Optical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2003.07a
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    • pp.60-61
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    • 2003
  • A new approach to reduce the computation time of genetic algorithm (GA) for making binary phase holograms is described. Synthesized holograms having diffraction efficiency of 75.8% and uniformity of 5.8% are proven in computer simulation and experimentally demonstrated. Recently, computer-generated holograms (CGHs) having high diffraction efficiency and flexibility of design have been widely developed in many applications such as optical information processing, optical computing, optical interconnection, etc. Among proposed optimization methods, GA has become popular due to its capability of reaching nearly global. However, there exits a drawback to consider when we use the genetic algorithm. It is the large amount of computation time to construct desired holograms. One of the major reasons that the GA' s operation may be time intensive results from the expense of computing the cost function that must Fourier transform the parameters encoded on the hologram into the fitness value. In trying to remedy this drawback, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been put forward, allowing CGHs to be created easily and quickly (1), but the quality of reconstructed images is not high enough to use in applications of high preciseness. For that, we are in attempt to find a new approach of combiningthe good properties and performance of both the GA and ANN to make CGHs of high diffraction efficiency in a short time. The optimization of CGH using the genetic algorithm is merely a process of iteration, including selection, crossover, and mutation operators [2]. It is worth noting that the evaluation of the cost function with the aim of selecting better holograms plays an important role in the implementation of the GA. However, this evaluation process wastes much time for Fourier transforming the encoded parameters on the hologram into the value to be solved. Depending on the speed of computer, this process can even last up to ten minutes. It will be more effective if instead of merely generating random holograms in the initial process, a set of approximately desired holograms is employed. By doing so, the initial population will contain less trial holograms equivalent to the reduction of the computation time of GA's. Accordingly, a hybrid algorithm that utilizes a trained neural network to initiate the GA's procedure is proposed. Consequently, the initial population contains less random holograms and is compensated by approximately desired holograms. Figure 1 is the flowchart of the hybrid algorithm in comparison with the classical GA. The procedure of synthesizing a hologram on computer is divided into two steps. First the simulation of holograms based on ANN method [1] to acquire approximately desired holograms is carried. With a teaching data set of 9 characters obtained from the classical GA, the number of layer is 3, the number of hidden node is 100, learning rate is 0.3, and momentum is 0.5, the artificial neural network trained enables us to attain the approximately desired holograms, which are fairly good agreement with what we suggested in the theory. The second step, effect of several parameters on the operation of the hybrid algorithm is investigated. In principle, the operation of the hybrid algorithm and GA are the same except the modification of the initial step. Hence, the verified results in Ref [2] of the parameters such as the probability of crossover and mutation, the tournament size, and the crossover block size are remained unchanged, beside of the reduced population size. The reconstructed image of 76.4% diffraction efficiency and 5.4% uniformity is achieved when the population size is 30, the iteration number is 2000, the probability of crossover is 0.75, and the probability of mutation is 0.001. A comparison between the hybrid algorithm and GA in term of diffraction efficiency and computation time is also evaluated as shown in Fig. 2. With a 66.7% reduction in computation time and a 2% increase in diffraction efficiency compared to the GA method, the hybrid algorithm demonstrates its efficient performance. In the optical experiment, the phase holograms were displayed on a programmable phase modulator (model XGA). Figures 3 are pictures of diffracted patterns of the letter "0" from the holograms generated using the hybrid algorithm. Diffraction efficiency of 75.8% and uniformity of 5.8% are measured. We see that the simulation and experiment results are fairly good agreement with each other. In this paper, Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network have been successfully combined in designing CGHs. This method gives a significant reduction in computation time compared to the GA method while still allowing holograms of high diffraction efficiency and uniformity to be achieved. This work was supported by No.mOl-2001-000-00324-0 (2002)) from the Korea Science & Engineering Foundation.

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Comparative Study on the Independence of Central bank in Transition Countries: Focused on the Russia, Czech Republic, Poland (체제전환기 국가의 중앙은행 독립성 비교 연구 - 러시아, 체코, 폴란드를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang Won
    • Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.499-524
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to based on review of theoretical and empirical studies to assess the independence of central banks - the former Socialist republics, including the Russian Federation and Czech, Poland. In addition, the work is expected to clarify whether a link exists between independence and the most important economic indicators such as inflation, economic activity, the budget deficit. And The subject of this study are the formal and actual independence of national banks, as well as limiting factors: political and economic. Background investigation of the problem of independence of central banks from the fact that, according to many economists, it is essential to the successful development of a market economy. The effectiveness of any country's economy due to currency volatility, low inflation, high reliability of the banking system, etc. As far as the independence of monetary regulation contributes to these goals - one of the most actively debated issues in the world of economic theory and practice for a long time. The issue of central bank independence is extremely important for Russia, Czech, Poland. In the near future to the central bank has important tasks, among which are the transition to inflation targeting in the rejection of significant intervention in the foreign exchange market, as well as improving the sustainability of the national banking system. Transparency and independence of the Bank of Russia, Czech Republic, Poland, in my view, should be an important factor in achieving these goals. The countries of Czech Republic, Poland have already made a number of steps to bring the status of their banks to the European standards. Many other developing countries are also in the process of reforming their central banks and the improving conditions of their functioning. However, despite the fact that as a model for reform used by the central banks of countries with developed market economies, central banks in developing countries are still yet deprived of the legal, economic and political independence. A different situation exists in transition space. Because of significant differences in the views of the authorities in transition republics at the necessary level of independence of central banks and the exchange rate and monetary policy reform of monetary management in these countries led to different results.

Empirical Analysis of Accelerator Investment Determinants Based on Business Model Innovation Framework (비즈니스 모델 혁신 프레임워크 기반의 액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 실증 분석)

  • Jung, Mun-Su;Kim, Eun-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.253-270
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    • 2023
  • Research on investment determinants of accelerators, which are attracting attention by greatly improving the survival rate of startups by providing professional incubation and investment to startups at the same time, is gradually expanding. However, previous studies do not have a theoretical basis in developing investment determinants in the early stages, and they use factors of angel investors or venture capital, which are similar investors, and are still in the stage of analyzing importance and priority through empirical research. Therefore, this study verified for the first time in Korea the discrimination and effectiveness of investment determinants using accelerator investment determinants developed based on the business model innovation framework in previous studies. To this end, we first set the criteria for success and failure of startup investment based on scale-up theory and conducted a survey of 22 investment experts from 14 accelerators in Korea, and secured valid data on a total of 97 startups, including 52 successful scale-up startups and 45 failed scale-up startups, were obtained and an independent sample t-test was conducted to verify the mean difference between these two groups by accelerator investment determinants. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the investment determinants of accelerators based on business model innovation framework have considerable discrimination in finding successful startups and making investment decisions. In addition, as a result of analyzing manufacturing-related startups and service-related startups considering the characteristics of innovation by industry, manufacturing-related startups differed in business model, strategy, and dynamic capability factors, while service-related startups differed in dynamic capabilities. This study has great academic implications in that it verified the practical effectiveness of accelerator investment determinants derived based on business model innovation framework for the first time in Korea, and it has high practical value in that it can make effective investments by providing theoretical grounds and detailed information for investment decisions.

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An Analysis of Investment Determinants of Korean Accelerators: From the Perspective of Business Model Innovation (국내 액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 중요도 분석: 비즈니스 모델 혁신 관점에서)

  • Jung, Mun-Su;Kim, Eun-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2022
  • Although start-up is a key national strategy to increase national competitiveness and create employment, the survival rate of start-ups has not improved significantly. This is an important reason for the inability to provide timely and appropriate support to startups, which are in the early stages of start-up, due to the unique limitations of existing start-up support institutions and investors. The relatively recent accelerator is attracting attention as a subject of solving the above problems through professional incubation and investment. However, there are only a few empirical studies on investment determinants that affect the survival and success of accelerators, and there is a lack of theoretical evidence. Accordingly, in previous studies, 12 investment determinants were derived from a static, strategic, and dynamic perspective as accelerator investment determinants based on a business model innovation framework. This study subdivided the accelerator investment determinants derived through previous studies into 21 and analyzed the importance and priority of each factor using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis technique for domestic accelerator investment experts. As a result of the analysis, the top factors of importance of accelerator investment determinants were in the order of 'human resources', 'customer and market', 'intellectual resources', and 'entrepreneur's ability to realize opportunities'. It can be seen that the accelerator considers the core competencies of startups to implement solutions as the most important factor when making startup investment decisions. It was also confirmed that accelerators are strategic to create a clear value proposition and differentiated market position based on the core competitiveness of startups, and that the core value delivery method prefers a market-oriented business model and recognizes entrepreneurs's innovation capability is an important factor to realize a business model with limited resources in a rapidly changing market. This study is of academic significance in that it analyzes the importance and priority of accelerator investment determinants through demonstration as a follow-up study on accelerator investment determinants derived based on business model innovation theory that reflects the nature, goals, and major activities of accelerator investment. In addition, it is of practical value as it contributes to revitalizing the domestic startup investment ecosystem by providing accelerators with theoretical grounds for investment decisions and specific information on detailed investment determinants.

The Impact of the Internet Channel Introduction Depending on the Ownership of the Internet Channel (도입주체에 따른 인터넷경로의 도입효과)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2009
  • The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced in May 2008 that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for 2006 reached $ 107 billion, up from $ 87 billion in 2005 - an increase of 22 percent. From 2001 to 2006, retail e-sales increased at an average annual growth rate of 25.4 percent. The explosive growth of E-Commerce has caused profound changes in marketing channel relationships and structures in many industries. Despite the great potential implications for both academicians and practitioners, there still exists a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of the Internet channel introduction on distribution channel management. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the ownership of the new Internet channel affects the existing channel members and consumers. To explore the above research questions, this study conducts well-controlled mathematical experiments to isolate the impact of the Internet channel by comparing before and after the Internet channel entry. The model consists of a monopolist manufacturer selling its product through a channel system including one independent physical store before the entry of an Internet store. The addition of the Internet store to this channel system results in a mixed channel comprised of two different types of channels. The new Internet store can be launched by the independent physical store such as Bestbuy. In this case, the physical retailer coordinates the two types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the two stores. The Internet store also can be introduced by an independent Internet retailer such as Amazon. In this case, a retail level competition occurs between the two types of stores. Although the manufacturer sells only one product, consumers view each product-outlet pair as a unique offering. Thus, the introduction of the Internet channel provides two product offerings for consumers. The channel structures analyzed in this study are illustrated in Fig.1. It is assumed that the manufacturer plays as a Stackelberg leader maximizing its own profits with the foresight of the independent retailer's optimal responses as typically assumed in previous analytical channel studies. As a Stackelberg follower, the independent physical retailer or independent Internet retailer maximizes its own profits, conditional on the manufacturer's wholesale price. The price competition between two the independent retailers is assumed to be a Bertrand Nash game. For simplicity, the marginal cost is set at zero, as typically assumed in this type of study. In order to explore the research questions above, this study develops a game theoretic model that possesses the following three key characteristics. First, the model explicitly captures the fact that an Internet channel and a physical store exist in two independent dimensions (one in physical space and the other in cyber space). This enables this model to demonstrate that the effect of adding an Internet store is different from that of adding another physical store. Second, the model reflects the fact that consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences for using a physical store and for using an Internet channel. Third, the model captures the vertical strategic interactions between an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer, making it possible to analyze the channel structure issues discussed in this paper. Although numerous previous models capture this vertical dimension of marketing channels, none simultaneously incorporates the three characteristics reflected in this model. The analysis results are summarized in Table 1. When the new Internet channel is introduced by the existing physical retailer and the retailer coordinates both types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the both stores, retail prices increase due to a combination of the coordination of the retail prices and the wider market coverage. The quantity sold does not significantly increase despite the wider market coverage, because the excessively high retail prices alleviate the market coverage effect to a degree. Interestingly, the coordinated total retail profits are lower than the combined retail profits of two competing independent retailers. This implies that when a physical retailer opens an Internet channel, the retailers could be better off managing the two channels separately rather than coordinating them, unless they have the foresight of the manufacturer's pricing behavior. It is also found that the introduction of an Internet channel affects the power balance of the channel. The retail competition is strong when an independent Internet store joins a channel with an independent physical retailer. This implies that each retailer in this structure has weak channel power. Due to intense retail competition, the manufacturer uses its channel power to increase its wholesale price to extract more profits from the total channel profit. However, the retailers cannot increase retail prices accordingly because of the intense retail level competition, leading to lower channel power. In this case, consumer welfare increases due to the wider market coverage and lower retail prices caused by the retail competition. The model employed for this study is not designed to capture all the characteristics of the Internet channel. The theoretical model in this study can also be applied for any stores that are not geographically constrained such as TV home shopping or catalog sales via mail. The reasons the model in this study is names as "Internet" are as follows: first, the most representative example of the stores that are not geographically constrained is the Internet. Second, catalog sales usually determine the target markets using the pre-specified mailing lists. In this aspect, the model used in this study is closer to the Internet than catalog sales. However, it would be a desirable future research direction to mathematically and theoretically distinguish the core differences among the stores that are not geographically constrained. The model is simplified by a set of assumptions to obtain mathematical traceability. First, this study assumes the price is the only strategic tool for competition. In the real world, however, various marketing variables can be used for competition. Therefore, a more realistic model can be designed if a model incorporates other various marketing variables such as service levels or operation costs. Second, this study assumes the market with one monopoly manufacturer. Therefore, the results from this study should be carefully interpreted considering this limitation. Future research could extend this limitation by introducing manufacturer level competition. Finally, some of the results are drawn from the assumption that the monopoly manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader. Although this is a standard assumption among game theoretic studies of this kind, we could gain deeper understanding and generalize our findings beyond this assumption if the model is analyzed by different game rules.

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Kinemetic analysis of a thumping security motion with an expandable barton (경호원의 삼단봉 머리치기 동작의 운동학적 분석)

  • Kim, Yong-Hak;Kim, Sin-Hye;Jung, Sung-Bae
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.36
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    • pp.93-109
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    • 2013
  • This research is mainly based on the experimental result due to seek different outcomes whena certain security motion with a paticular gear is applied in a plausible confrontational situation. For the purpose of this research an Expandable Baton, which is one of the most commonsecurity equipments, was chosen to be applied in a situation of hitting a person's head. Alsothe results will be studied in the view of Kinematic theory. To demonstrate, 10 students who were majeored in Escort Crane studies at 'H' university werechosen as testees. The participants were grouped into two-one is practiced with the 'expanadable baton use program' and the other is pre-practiced. In this report two groups abovewill be reffered as 'group A' and 'group B' for conveniency. There were a number of differences and changes between two groups. Group B took more timethan the other group did. Group A spent about 0.428sec in section 'e2' and 0.230sec in section'e3' while Group B took 0.435sec, 0.232sec in each sections.To add on, more distinctive results were out when it was more focused on physical movements. Two gropus presented considerable changes- in an 'left-right' moving displacement-Group A;$2.16{\pm}0.9cm$ (left side), $3.78{\pm}1.42cm$ (right side), total $5.94{\pm}2.03cm$. Group B; $2.97{\pm}1.01cm$ (left side),$4.56{\pm}1.57cm$ (right side), total $7.53{\pm}2.13cm$.Continuously, different outcomeswere shown between two groups in a 'back and forth' moving displacement-Group A;$32.48{\pm}3.86cm$, $35.21{\pm}4.64cm$, total $69.36{\pm}5.72$. Group B; $34.50{\pm}6.12cm$, $37.04{\pm}3.70cm$, total $71.46{\pm}7.17cm$. Furthermore, changes in an 'up and down' moving displacement were - GroupA; $5.62{\pm}2.41cm$, $4.54{\pm}1.87cm$, total $10.11{\pm}1.57cm$. Group B; $6.33{\pm}1.78cm$, $4.86{\pm}1.85cm$,total $10.68{\pm}1.81cm$. To continue, there were few modifications of degree on participants' joints, espcially on 'Wristjoint', 'Elbow joint' and 'Shoulder joint', depend on different sections -Wrist joint;Group A; e1 $114.62{\pm}7.13$, e2 $68.27{\pm}6.37$, e3 $131.64{\pm}6.27$. Group B; e1 $112.62{\pm}6.13$, e2 $66.28{\pm}7.38$, e3$137.42{\pm}4.28$ and Elbow joint ; Group A e1 $132.31{\pm}6.55$, e2 $117.92{\pm}8.42$, e3 $144.41{\pm}6.32$. Group B; e1 $133.58{\pm}8.56$, e2 $114.45{\pm}8.21$, e3 $139.89{\pm}4.38$. Lastly, degree changes ofshoulder joint were; Group A; e1 $13.55{\pm}3.85$, e2 $131.42{\pm}11.24$, e3 $78.32{\pm}6.28$. Group B; e1$9.45{\pm}1.23$, e2 $136.74{\pm}13.21$, e3 $79.75{\pm}4.24$.

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Emulsion Liquid Membrane Transport of Heavy Metal Sons by Macrocyclic Carriers (거대고리 운반체에 의한 중금속이온의 에멀죤 액체막 수송)

  • 정오진
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.223-232
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    • 1995
  • New two macrocyclic compounds using as carriers of liquid emulsion menbrame, have been synthesized. These reuslts provide evidance for the usefulness of the theory in designing the systems. The efficiency of selective transport for heavy metal ions have been discussed from the membrane systems that make use of $SCN^-$,<>,$I^-$,CN- and $Cl^-$ ion as co-anions in source phase and make use of $S_2O_3^{2-}$ and $P_2O_7^{4-}$ ion as receiving phase, respectively. The transport rate of M(II) was highest when a maximum amount of the M(II) in the source phase was present as$Cd(SCN)_2$$(P[SCN^-]= 0.40M)$, $Hg(SCN)_2([SCN^-]=0.40M)$ and Pd(CN)$([CN^-]= 0.40M)$. The Cd(II) and Pb(II) over each competitive cations were well transprted with 0.3M-S2032- and 0.3M-P2O74-, respectively in the receiving phase. Results of this study indicate that two criteria must be met in order to have effective macrocycle-mediated transport in these emulsion system. First one must effective extraction of the $M^{n+}$ into the toluene systems. The effectiveness of this extraction is the greatest if locK for $M^{n+}$macrocycle interaction is large and if the macrocycle is very insoluble in the aqueous phase. Second, the ratio of the locK values (or Mn+-receiving phase ($S_2O_3^{2-}$- or $P_2O_7^{4-}$) to $M^{n+}$-macrocycle (($L_1$이나 $L_2$) interaction must be large enough to ensure quantitative stripping of Mn+(($Cd^{2+}$,$Pb^{2+}$)at the toluene receiving Phase interface. $L_1$(3.5-benzo-10,13,18,21-tetraoxa-1,7,diazabicyclo(8,5,5) eicosan) forms a stable ($Cd^{2+}$ and >,$Pb^{2+}$ complexes and $L_1$ is very insoluble in water and its $Cd^{2+}$ and >,$Pb^{2+}$ complex is considerably less stable than $Cd^{2+}$-(S2O3)22- and $Pd^{2+}-P_2O_7^{4-}$ complexes. On the other hand, the stability of the $Hg^{2+}$)+-$L_1$( complex exceed that of the $Hg^{2+}$- (S2O3)22- and Hg2+-P2O74-, and the distribution coefficient of $L_2$(5,8,15,18,23,26-hexaoxa-1,12- diazabicyclo-(10,8,8) octacosane) is much smaller than that of $L_1$. Therefore, the partitioning of Lr is favored by the aqueous receiving Phase, and little heavy metal ions transport is seen despite the large logK for $Hg^{2+}$+-$L_1$ and $Mn^+$($Cd^{2+}$+, $Pb^{2+}$+ and $Hg^{2+}$)-$L_2$ interactions. Key Words : macrocycles, transport, heavy metal, co-anion, source phase, receiveing, complex separation, interaction, destribution coefficient.

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A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Differential Effects of Recovery Efforts on Products Attitudes (제품태도에 대한 회복노력의 차별적 효과)

  • Kim, Cheon-GIl;Choi, Jung-Mi
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.33-58
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    • 2008
  • Previous research has presupposed that the evaluation of consumer who received any recovery after experiencing product failure should be better than the evaluation of consumer who did not receive any recovery. The major purposes of this article are to examine impacts of product defect failures rather than service failures, and to explore effects of recovery on postrecovery product attitudes. First, this article deals with the occurrence of severe and unsevere failure and corresponding service recovery toward tangible products rather than intangible services. Contrary to intangible services, purchase and usage are separable for tangible products. This difference makes it clear that executing an recovery strategy toward tangible products is not plausible right after consumers find out product failures. The consumers may think about backgrounds and causes for the unpleasant events during the time gap between product failure and recovery. The deliberation may dilutes positive effects of recovery efforts. The recovery strategies which are provided to consumers experiencing product failures can be classified into three types. A recovery strategy can be implemented to provide consumers with a new product replacing the old defective product, a complimentary product for free, a discount at the time of the failure incident, or a coupon that can be used on the next visit. This strategy is defined as "a rewarding effort." Meanwhile a product failure may arise in exchange for its benefit. Then the product provider can suggest a detail explanation that the defect is hard to escape since it relates highly to the specific advantage to the product. The strategy may be called as "a strengthening effort." Another possible strategy is to recover negative attitude toward own brand by giving prominence to the disadvantages of a competing brand rather than the advantages of its own brand. The strategy is reflected as "a weakening effort." This paper emphasizes that, in order to confirm its effectiveness, a recovery strategy should be compared to being nothing done in response to the product failure. So the three types of recovery efforts is discussed in comparison to the situation involving no recovery effort. The strengthening strategy is to claim high relatedness of the product failure with another advantage, and expects the two-sidedness to ease consumers' complaints. The weakening strategy is to emphasize non-aversiveness of product failure, even if consumers choose another competitive brand. The two strategies can be effective in restoring to the original state, by providing plausible motives to accept the condition of product failure or by informing consumers of non-responsibility in the failure case. However the two may be less effective strategies than the rewarding strategy, since it tries to take care of the rehabilitation needs of consumers. Especially, the relative effect between the strengthening effort and the weakening effort may differ in terms of the severity of the product failure. A consumer who realizes a highly severe failure is likely to attach importance to the property which caused the failure. This implies that the strengthening effort would be less effective under the condition of high product severity. Meanwhile, the failing property is not diagnostic information in the condition of low failure severity. Consumers would not pay attention to non-diagnostic information, and with which they are not likely to change their attitudes. This implies that the strengthening effort would be more effective under the condition of low product severity. A 2 (product failure severity: high or low) X 4 (recovery strategies: rewarding, strengthening, weakening, or doing nothing) between-subjects design was employed. The particular levels of product failure severity and the types of recovery strategies were determined after a series of expert interviews. The dependent variable was product attitude after the recovery effort was provided. Subjects were 284 consumers who had an experience of cosmetics. Subjects were first given a product failure scenario and were asked to rate the comprehensibility of the failure scenario, the probability of raising complaints against the failure, and the subjective severity of the failure. After a recovery scenario was presented, its comprehensibility and overall evaluation were measured. The subjects assigned to the condition of no recovery effort were exposed to a short news article on the cosmetic industry. Next, subjects answered filler questions: 42 items of the need for cognitive closure and 16 items of need-to-evaluate. In the succeeding page a subject's product attitude was measured on an five-item, six-point scale, and a subject's repurchase intention on an three-item, six-point scale. After demographic variables of age and sex were asked, ten items of the subject's objective knowledge was checked. The results showed that the subjects formed more favorable evaluations after receiving rewarding efforts than after receiving either strengthening or weakening efforts. This is consistent with Hoffman, Kelley, and Rotalsky (1995) in that a tangible service recovery could be more effective that intangible efforts. Strengthening and weakening efforts also were effective compared to no recovery effort. So we found that generally any recovery increased products attitudes. The results hint us that a recovery strategy such as strengthening or weakening efforts, although it does not contain a specific reward, may have an effect on consumers experiencing severe unsatisfaction and strong complaint. Meanwhile, strengthening and weakening efforts were not expected to increase product attitudes under the condition of low severity of product failure. We can conclude that only a physical recovery effort may be recognized favorably as a firm's willingness to recover its fault by consumers experiencing low involvements. Results of the present experiment are explained in terms of the attribution theory. This article has a limitation that it utilized fictitious scenarios. Future research deserves to test a realistic effect of recovery for actual consumers. Recovery involves a direct, firsthand experience of ex-users. Recovery does not apply to non-users. The experience of receiving recovery efforts can be relatively more salient and accessible for the ex-users than for non-users. A recovery effort might be more likely to improve product attitude for the ex-users than for non-users. Also the present experiment did not include consumers who did not have an experience of the products and who did not perceive the occurrence of product failure. For the non-users and the ignorant consumers, the recovery efforts might lead to decreased product attitude and purchase intention. This is because the recovery trials may give an opportunity for them to notice the product failure.

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