• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.105-117
• /
• 2022

This study analyzes the effects between stock returns and interest rate spread, difference between long-term and short-term interest rate through the polynomial linear regression analysis. The existing research concentrated on the business forecast through the interest rate spread focusing on the US market. The previous studies verified the interest rate spread based on the leading indicators of business forecast by moderating the period of long-term/short-term interest rates and analyzing the degree of leading. After the 7th reform of composite indices of business indicators in Korea of 2006, the interest rate spread was included in the items of composing the business leading indicators, which is utilized till today. Nevertheless, there are a few research on stock returns of each industry and interest rate spread in domestic stock market. Therefore, this study analyzed the stock returns of each industry and interest rate spread targeting Korean stock market. This study selected the long-term/short-term interest rates with high causality through the regression analysis, and then understood the correlations with each leading period and industry. To overcome the limitation of the simple linear regression analysis, polynomial linear regression analysis is used, which raised explanatory power. As a result, the high causality was verified when using differences between returns of corporate bond(AA-) without guarantee for three years by leading six months and call rate returns as interest rate spread. In addition, analyzing the stock returns of each industry, the relation between the relevant interest rate spread and returns of the automobile industry was the closest. This study is significant in the aspect of verifying the causality of interest rate spread, business forecast, and stock returns in Korea. Even though it could be limited to forecast the stock price by using only the interest rate spread, it would be working as a strong factor when it is properly utilized with other various factors.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.111-142
• /
• 2014

We examine whether country fundamentals help explain the cross-section of currency excess returns. For this purpose, we consider fundamental variables such as default risk, foreign exchange rate regime, capital control as well as interest rate in the multi-factor model framework. Our empirical results show that fundamental factors explain a large part of the cross-section of currency excess returns. The zero-intercept restriction of the factor model is not rejected for most currencies. They also reveal that our factor model with country fundamentals performs better than a factor model with usual investment-style factors. Our main empirical results are based on 2001-2010 balanced panel data of 19 major currencies. This paper may fill the gap between country fundamentals and practitioners' strategies on currency investment.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.3-27
• /
• 2014

This paper examines the effects of financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of daily exchange returns focusing on the Asian crisis in 97-98 and the Global crisis in 08-09. By using the daily KRW-USD and JPY-USD exchange rates which have different trading regions and volumes, this paper first applies both the parametric FIGARCH model and the semi-parametric Local Whittle method to estimate the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns and the temporally aggregated returns of the two exchange rates. Then it compares the effects of the two financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns. The estimation results reflect that the long memory volatility dependency of the KRW-USD is generally greater than that of the JPY-USD returns and the long memory dependency of the two returns appears to be invariant to temporal aggregation. And, the two financial crises appear to affect the volatility dynamics of all the returns by inducing greater long memory dependency in the volatility process of the exchange returns, but the degree of the effects of the two crises seems to be different on the exchange rates.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.47-68
• /
• 1997

This paper discusses a method of modified Elman network(1990) for nonlinear predictions and its a, pp.ication to forecasting daily exchange rate returns. The method consists of two stages that take advantages of both time domain filter and modified feedback networks. The first stage straightforwardly employs the filtering technique to remove extreme noise. In the second stage neural networks are designed to take the feedback from both hidden-layer units and the deviation of outputs from target values during learning. This combined feedback can be exploited to transfer unconsidered information on errors into the network system and, consequently, would improve predictions. The method a, pp.ars to dominate linear ARMA models and standard dynamic neural networks in one-step-ahead forecasting exchange rate returns.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.43 no.4
• /
• pp.229-235
• /
• 2020

Investors aim to maximize the return rate for their own investment, utilizing various information as possible as they can access. However those investors, especially individual investors, have limitations of interpretation of the domain-specific information or even the acquisition of the information itself. Thus, individual investors tend to make decision affectively and frequently, which may cause a loss in returns. This study aims to analyze analysts' target price and to suggest the strategy that could maximize individual's return rate. Most previous literature revealed that the optimistic bias exists in the analysts' target price and it is also confirmed in this study. In this context, this study suggests the upper limit of target rate of returns and the optimal value named 'alpha(α)' which performs the adjustment of proposed target rate to maximize excess earning returns eventually. To achieve this goal, this study developed an optimization problem using linear programming. Specifically, when the analysts' proposed target rate exceeds 30%, it could be adjusted to the extent of 59% of its own target rate. As apply this strategy, the investors could achieve 1.2% of excess earning rate on average. The result of this study has significance in that the individual investors could utilize analysts' target price practically.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.11 no.10
• /
• pp.55-62
• /
• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.110-126
• /
• 2019

Purpose - This paper examines the recently realized continuous volatility and discrete jumps of US Dollar/Euro returns using the frequency of five minute returns spanning the period from February 2010 through February 2018with periodicity filters. Design/Methodology - This paper adopts the nonparametric estimation. The realized volatility and Realized Outlying Weighted variations show non-Gaussian, fat-tailed, and leptokurtic distributions. Some significant volatility jumps in returns occurred from 2010 through 2018, and the very exceptionally large and irregular jumps occurred around 2010-2011, after the EU financial crisis, and 2015-2016. The outliers occurred somewhat frequently around the years of 2015 and 2016. Originality/value - When we include periodicity filters of volatility such as MAD, Short Half Scale, and WSD, the five minute returns of US Dollar/Euro exchange rates have smaller daily jump probabilities by 20-30% than when we do not include the periodicity filters of volatility. Thus, when we consider the periodicity filters of volatility such as MAD, Short Half Scale, and WSD, the five minute returns of US Dollar/Euro have considerably smaller jump probabilities.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.1-4
• /
• 2012

We study optimal trading strategy of a market maker with stock inventory. Following Avellaneda and Stoikov (2008), we assume the stock price follows a normal distribution. However, we take a constant expected rate of the stock return and assume that the stock volatility is an inverse function of the stock price level. We show that the optimal bid-ask spread of the market maker is wider for a higher expected rate of stock returns.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.12
• /
• pp.683-692
• /
• 2020

The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic factors to the Islamic stock market returns. The study focuses on the Islamic stock indices of emerging economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Turkey. The Macroeconomic factors are industrial production, consumer price index, exchange rate. EGARCH model is employed for investigation of volatility spillovers. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty has a significant spillover effect only on the returns of Turkish Islamic stock index. Similarly, the shocks in macroeconomic factors have little influence on the volatility of Islamic indices returns. The volatility of Indonesian and the Turkish Islamic stock indices returns is not influenced from the fluctuations in macroeconomic factors. However, there is significant volatility spillover only from industrial production to the returns of Malaysian Islamic index. The results suggest that the Islamic stock markets are less likely to influence from the global economic policies and macroeconomic factors. The stability of Islamic stocks provide opportunity for diversification of portfolios, particularly in stressed market conditions. The major price factors of Islamic markets could be firms' specific factors or investors' behaviors. The findings are helpful for policy makers and investors in formulating policies and portfolios.

• Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.1-21
• /
• 1995

This study examines the socioeconomic returns to agricultural research and extension services in Korea, using multivariate time series technique and Akino-Hyami formula. Results find that the socioeconomic returns are quite competitive in case of agricultural research with 44.82% internal rate of return and very high in case of extension services with 207.82% internal rate of return. Agricultural production responds to the agricultural research shock about four years after the shock. The magnitudes of the impacts increase until a peak is reached nine years after the initial expenditures and the impacts declines to a zero level after about twenty years. This lag lengths are consistent to the usual literature on research, which finds lags of seven to thirty years. Agricultural production responds to an agricultural extension shock immediately and declines to a zero level after about four years. Thus, the lag lengths are much shorter than those by research shock.