• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 1996년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.954-958
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• 1996

An analysis method for the reliability of ceramic structures subjected to thermal shocks is presented, Flaws with the size of given probability distribution function are assumed to be distributed at random with a certain density per unit volume in the structures. Criterions for crack instability are derived for brittle solids under general thermal stresses. A probabilistic failure model is presented to study the probability of crack instability for blittle solids containing cracks with uncertain crack size. The reliabilities of brittle structures are evaluated based on the weakest-link hypothesis, which states that a structure fails when the cracks in any differential volume become unstable. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제43권6호
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• pp.835-845
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• 2012

This paper focuses on the stochastic response analysis of industrial masonry chimneys to surface blast-induced random ground motions by using a three dimensional finite element model. Underground blasts induce ground shocks on nearby structures. Depending on the distance between the explosion centre and the structure, masonry structures will be subjected to ground motions due to the surface explosions. Blast-induced random ground motions can be defined in terms of the power spectral density function and applied to each support point of the 3D finite element model of the industrial masonry system. In this paper, mainly a parametric study is conducted to estimate the effect of the blast-induced ground motions on the stochastic response of a chimney type masonry structure. With this purpose, different values of charge weight and distance from the charge centre are considered for the analyses of the chimney. The results of the study underline the remarkable effect of the surface blast-induced ground motions on the stochastic behaviour of industrial masonry type chimneys.

• 천문학논총
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.433-437
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• 2015

We show the results of a time series analysis of the long-term light curves of four blazars. 3C 279, 3C 345, 3C 446, and BL Lacertae. We used densely sampled light curves spanning 32 years at three frequency bands (4.8, 8, 14.5 GHz), provided by the University of Michigan Radio Astronomy Observatory monitoring program. The spectral indices of our sources are mostly flat or inverted (-0.5 < ${\alpha}$ < 0), which is consistent with optically thick emission. Strong variability was seen in all light curves on various time scales. From the analyses of time lags between the light curves from different frequency bands and the evolution of the spectral indices with time, we find that we can distinguish high-peaking flares and low-peaking flares according to the Valtaoja et al. classification. The periodograms (temporal power spectra) of the light curves are in good agreement with random-walk power-law noise without any indication of (quasi-)periodic variability. We note that random-walk noise light curves can originate from multiple shocks in jets. The fact that all our sources are in agreement with being random-walk noise emitters at radio wavelengths suggests that such behavior is a general property of blazars. We are going to generalize our approach by applying our methodology to a much larger blazar sample in the near future.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.485-492
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• 1998

Most forecasting models often fail to produce appropriate forecasts because we build a model based on the assumption of the data being generated from the only one stochastic process. However, in many real problems, the time series data are generated from one stochastic process for a while and then abruptly undergo certain structural changes. In this paper, we assume the basic underlying process is the simple state-space model with random level and deterministic drift but interrupted by three types of exogenous shocks: level shift, drift change, outlier. A Bayesian procedure to detect, estimate and adapt to the structural changes is developed and compared with simple, double and adaptive exponential smoothing using simulated data and the U.S. leading composite index.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.40-46
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• 2021

At launch, satellites are exposed to various types of structural loads, such as quasi-static loads, sinusoidal vibrations, acoustic/random vibrations, and shocks. The launch environment test is aimed at verifying the structural stability of the test object against the launch environment. Various types of launch environments are simulated by simple vibration, acoustic, and shock tests considering possible test conditions in ground. However, the difference between the launch environment and the test environment is one of the causes of excessive testing. To prevent overtesting, a notching technique that adjusts the frequency range and the input load considering the design load is applied. For notching, specific procedures are established considering the satellite development concept, selected launch vehicle, higher system requirements, and test target level. In this study, the notching method, established procedure, and development of a notching toolkit for efficient testing are described.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.54.1-54.1
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• 2011

Formation of self-gravitating gas clouds and hence stars in galaxies is a consequence of both thermal and dynamical evolution of a gaseous medium. Using hydrodynamics simulations including cooling and heating explicitly, we follow simultaneously thermal and dynamical evolution of galactic gas disks to study dynamics and structures of galactic spiral shocks with thermal instability and regulation of the star formation rates (SFRs). We first perform one-dimensional simulations in direction perpendicular to spiral arms. The multiphase gas flows across the arm soon achieve a quasi-steady state characterized by transitions from warm to cold phases at the shock and from cold to warm phases in the postshock expansion zone, producing a substantial fraction of intermediate-temperature gas. Next, we allow a vertical degree of freedom to model vertically stratified disks. The shock front experiences unsteady flapping motions, driving a significant amount of random gas motions, and self-gravity promotes formation of bound clouds inside spiral arms. Finally, we include the star formation feedback in both mechanical (due to supernova explosion) and radiative (due to FUV heating by young stars) forms in the absence of spiral arms. At saturation, gravitationally bound clouds form via thermal and gravitational instabilities, which are compensated by disruption via supernova explosions. We find that the FUV heating regulates the SFRs when gas surface density is low, confirming the prediction of the thermal and dynamical equilibrium model of Ostriker et al. (2010) for star formation regulation.

• The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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• 제2권6호
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• pp.677-685
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• 1998

To investigate the effects of neonatal stress on behavior and neurochemistry, rats were exposed to the footshock stress on postnatal day (PND) 14 or PNDs 14 and 21. Rats were exposed to uncontrollable electric shocks delivered to the floor with a constant current (0.8 mA) for 5 sec period. Daily sessions consisted of 60 trials on a random time schedule with an average of 55 sec. The first exposure to footshocks on PND 14 decreased body weight gain for 1 day. However, the second exposure to footshocks on PND 21 did not affect body weight gain. Exploratory activity was measured by exposing a rat to a novel environment 24 h after experience of footshocks. Similar to the body weight changes, a decreased activity was noted after the first exposure to footshocks, while no changed activity was noted after the second exposure to footshocks. However, the Bmax value of $5-HT_{2A/2C}$ receptors in the cortex decreased by the second exposure to footshocks, but not by the first exposure to footshocks. Moreover, an autoradiographic study revealed that the density of $[^3H]dexamethasone$ binding in hippocampus decreased in rats exposed to footshocks 4 times during PND $14{\sim}20.$ These results suggest that the uncontrollable footshock stress changes 5-hydroxytryptamine and glucocorticoid receptor systems acutely and that the repeated exposure to the same stress may not elicit behavioral alterations by the compensatory activity of young brain although changes in some neurochemistry exist.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제23권8호
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• pp.101-111
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• 2005

대중교통의 서비스 개선은 접근성이 개선되어 대중교통 이용자의 수요를 늘리는 중요한 역할로 작용한다. 본 연구는 서울시가 최근 2004년 7월 대대적으로 실시한 대중교통체계 개편 후 지하철이용자의 접근성 변화를 설명하기 위한 것이다. 첫번째 연구목적은 공간상호작용 개념을 포함하는 한센형 접근성 지표를 지하철-버스간 환승할인 전후의 자료로부터 추정하고 비교 설명한다. 두번째 연구목적은 개편 전 후의 접근성 지표가 단기의 교통과 토지이용간의 관계를 설명하는 통행배분모형에 어떠한 역할을 하는지를 해석하는 것이다. 분석에 사용한 비접촉식 카드승차권과 접촉식 승차권 자료는 2004년 5월의 하루 평균 지하철 기종점자료와 서비스 변화가 발생한 2004년 8-9월의 하루 평균 지하철 기종점자료이다. 결론적으로 비접촉식 카드 이용자의 접근성이 향상되어 대중교통개편의 수혜자가 된 것으로 나타났으며, 그 효과는 서울지역에 넓게 분포된 것으로 나타났다. 통행배분모형연구에서 접근성 지표의 역할은 중요한 것으로 나타났으며, 기존 모형에서 접근성 지표의 변수가 생략되면, 추정된 모형의 파라메터 들이 편기(bias)된다는 것을 발견하였다. 그리고, 접근성 지표의 생략으로 인한 통행배정모형의 예측력 저하 원인을 규명하는 노력이 시도되었다.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제36권9호
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• pp.929-937
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• 2008

한국항공우주연구원에서 개발하고 있는 KSLV(Korea Space Launch Vehicle)-I 발사체의 비행 안전용 센서의 하나로 활용하기 위하여 개발된 GPS 수신기 시스템은 위성발사체의 특수한 비행환경과 높은 동특성 환경에서도 정상적으로 동작해야 한다. 5년에 걸쳐 개발이 완료된 위성발사체용 GPS 수신기 시스템은 습도, 고온, 저온, 진공, 정현파 및 랜덤진동, 충격, 가속도, 전자파 환경시험 등을 통하여 특수한 환경에서의 성능을 검증하였으며, GPS 시뮬레이터를 이용한 다양한 성능시험을 수행하여 높은 동특성 환경에서도 안정적으로 동작할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 본 논문에서는 위성발사체용 GPS 수신기 시스템의 전 개발과정을 소개하고, 일반적인 GPS 수신기 시스템과 비교하여 개발된 GPS 수신기 시스템의 특수한 기능들을 설명한다.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.159-172
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• 2017

비관측요인(unobserved-component)모형을 이용한 GDP의 추세-순환요인 분해에서, 통상적으로 추세는 확률보행 과정을 갖는 것으로 가정된다. 본 연구는 추세를 ARIMA 과정으로 표현하는 경우, GDP 변동에서 갖는 추세요인의 의미가 어떻게 달라지는가를 살펴보고, GDP에 대한 예측력이 개선될 수 있는가의 여부를 미국의 데이터를 이용하여 실증적으로 분석하였다. 모형은 GDP만의 단일변수모형과 물가를 포함하는 2변수모형의 두 가지를 고려하여 설정하였으며, 모형 추정은 비관측요인모형을 상태-공간모형으로 전환한 후 칼만 필터(Kalman filter)를 이용한 최대우도추정법을 사용하였다. GDP에 대한 예측은 축차적 추정(recursive estimation)을 이용한 동적 표본외예측(dynamic out-of-sample) 방식을 사용하였으며, 예측력 비교결과에 대한 검정은 Diebold-Mariano 검정을 이용하였다. 분석 결과는 첫째, 모형의 추정결과에서 ARIMA 추세의 계수가 통계적으로 유의적인 값을 가지며, 둘째, ARIMA 추세 모형이 확률보행 추세 모형보다 GDP 변동의 분산 및 자기 상관성(autocorrelation)을 보다 잘 설명하며, 셋째, 예측력에서 단일변수보다는 2변수모형의 예측력이 그리고 확률보행 추세보다는 ARIMA 추세를 갖는 모형의 예측력이 통계적으로 유의하게 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과들은 GDP 추세-순환 요인 분해에서 추세를 ARIMA 과정으로 표현하는 것이 보다 타당하다는 것을 시사하고 있다.