• Title/Summary/Keyword: Random Walk

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Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Estimating Parameters and Uncertainties of Probability Rainfall Distribution (확률강우분포의 매개변수 및 불확실성 추정을 위한 베이지안 기법의 비교)

  • Seo, Youngmin;Park, Jaeho;Choi, Yunyoung
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2019
  • This study investigates the performance of four Bayesian methods, Random Walk Metropolis (RWM), Hit-And-Run Metropolis (HARM), Adaptive Mixture Metropolis (AMM), and Population Monte Carlo (PMC), for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution, and the results are compared with those of conventional parameter estimation methods; namely, the Method Of Moment (MOM), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), and Probability Weighted Method (PWM). As a result, Bayesian methods yield similar or slightly better results in parameter estimations compared with conventional methods. In particular, PMC can reduce parameter uncertainty greatly compared with RWM, HARM, and AMM methods although the Bayesian methods produce similar results in parameter estimations. Overall, the Bayesian methods produce better accuracy for scale parameters compared with the conventional methods and this characteristic improves the accuracy of probability rainfall. Therefore, Bayesian methods can be effective tools for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution in hydrological practices, flood risk assessment, and decision-making support.

A Study on the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from Korea, Japan and China

  • Yoon, Il-Hyun;Kim, Yong-Min
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.61-75
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in Korea, Japan and China. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 1327 observations each of the daily closing exchange rates of the three currencies against the US dollar for the sample period from January 1, 2015 to January 31, 2020, based on the tests for autocorrelation, unit root tests and GARCH-M(1,1) model estimation. Findings - We have found that the autocorrelation test indicates the lack of autocorrelation and unit root test confirms the existence of unit roots in all times series of the three currencies, respectively. The GARCH-M(1,1) test results, however, suggest that the exchange rates do not follow a random walk process. In conclusion, the recent spot foreign exchange markets in Korea, Japan and China are believed to be informationally inefficient. Research implications or Originality - These findings have practical implications for both individual and institutional investors to be able to obtain excess returns on their investments in the foreign exchange markets in three countries by using appropriate risk management, portfolio strategy, technical analysis, etc. This study provides the first empirical examination on the foreign exchange market efficiency in the three biggest economies in Asia including China, which has been excluded from research due to its exchange rate regime.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Numerical simulation of unsteady flow field behind bluff body (Bluffbody 비정상 유동장에 대한 수치해석)

  • Ryu, Myeong-Seok;Gang, Seong-Mo;Kim, Yong-Mo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.350-357
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    • 1997
  • The transient incompressible flow behind the axisymmetric bluff body is numerically simulated using the random vortex method(RVM). Based on the vorticity formulation of the unsteady Navier-Stokes equations, the Lagrangian approach with a stochastic simulation of diffusion using random walk technique is employed to account for the transport processes of the vortex elements. The numerical solutions for 2-dimensional recirculating flow behind a backward-facing step in the laminar range of Reynolds number are compared with experimental data. The present simulation focuses on the transitional flow regime where the recirculation zone behind the bluff body becomes highly unsteady and large-scale vortex eddies are shed from the bluff body wake due to intrinsic shear layer instabilities. The unsteady vertical flow structures and the mixing characteristics behind the bluff body are discussed in detail.

A Single Mobile Target Tracking in Voronoi-based Clustered Wireless Sensor Network

  • Chen, Jiehui;Salim, Mariam B.;Matsumoto, Mitsuji
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2011
  • Despite the fact that the deployment of sensor networks and target tracking could both be managed by taking full advantage of Voronoi diagrams, very little few have been made in this regard. In this paper, we designed an optimized barrier coverage and an energy-efficient clustering algorithm for forming Vonoroi-based Wireless Sensor Networks(WSN) in which we proposed a mobile target tracking scheme (CTT&MAV) that takes full advantage of Voronoi-diagram boundary to improve detectability. Simulations verified that CTT&MAV outperforms random walk, random waypoint, random direction and Gauss-Markov in terms of both the average hop distance that the mobile target moved before being detected and lower sensor death rate. Moreover, we demonstrate that our results are robust as realistic sensing models and also validate our observations through extensive simulations.

Vibration Serviceability Evaluation of a Single Span Steel-Concrete Composite Foot Bridge under Dynamic Pedestrian Loadings Considering Moving Mass Effect (이동 질량 효과를 고려한 단경간 강합성 보행교의 보행 하중 진동 사용성 평가)

  • Wonsuk Park
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we present the analysis results on the vibration serviceability of a pedestrian bridge considering the effect of pedestrian moving mass inertia. Using dynamic finite element analysis, we considered different walking scenarios, including pedestrian density, walking speed, random walking, and synchronized walking, to analyze the acceleration response of a 40m long single-span bridge with a steel composite box cross section. We showed that the equivalent fixed mass analysis method did not significantly differ from the moving mass analysis in the random walk scenario and a wider frequency excitation band may be useful to consider when evaluating vibration serviceability in a random walk scenario.

Developing a Pedestrian Satisfaction Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning Algorithms (기계학습 알고리즘을 이용한 보행만족도 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Jae Seung;Lee, Hyunhee
    • Journal of Korea Planning Association
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.106-118
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    • 2019
  • In order to develop pedestrian navigation service that provides optimal pedestrian routes based on pedestrian satisfaction levels, it is required to develop a prediction model that can estimate a pedestrian's satisfaction level given a certain condition. Thus, the aim of the present study is to develop a pedestrian satisfaction prediction model based on three machine learning algorithms: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Artificial Neural Network models. The 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 Pedestrian Satisfaction Survey Data in Seoul, Korea are used to train and test the machine learning models. As a result, the Random Forest model shows the best prediction performance among the three (Accuracy: 0.798, Recall: 0.906, Precision: 0.842, F1 Score: 0.873, AUC: 0.795). The performance of Artificial Neural Network is the second (Accuracy: 0.773, Recall: 0.917, Precision: 0.811, F1 Score: 0.868, AUC: 0.738) and Logistic Regression model's performance follows the second (Accuracy: 0.764, Recall: 1.000, Precision: 0.764, F1 Score: 0.868, AUC: 0.575). The precision score of the Random Forest model implies that approximately 84.2% of pedestrians may be satisfied if they walk the areas, suggested by the Random Forest model.

SOME RESULTS ON ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIORS OF RANDOM SUMS OF INDEPENDENT IDENTICALLY DISTRIBUTED RANDOM VARIABLES

  • Hung, Tran Loc;Thanh, Tran Thien
    • Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2010
  • Let ${X_n,\;n\geq1}$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables (r.vs.), defined on a probability space ($\Omega$,A,P), and let ${N_n,\;n\geq1}$ be a sequence of positive integer-valued r.vs., defined on the same probability space ($\Omega$,A,P). Furthermore, we assume that the r.vs. $N_n$, $n\geq1$ are independent of all r.vs. $X_n$, $n\geq1$. In present paper we are interested in asymptotic behaviors of the random sum $S_{N_n}=X_1+X_2+\cdots+X_{N_n}$, $S_0=0$, where the r.vs. $N_n$, $n\geq1$ obey some defined probability laws. Since the appearance of the Robbins's results in 1948 ([8]), the random sums $S_{N_n}$ have been investigated in the theory probability and stochastic processes for quite some time (see [1], [4], [2], [3], [5]). Recently, the random sum approach is used in some applied problems of stochastic processes, stochastic modeling, random walk, queue theory, theory of network or theory of estimation (see [10], [12]). The main aim of this paper is to establish some results related to the asymptotic behaviors of the random sum $S_{N_n}$, in cases when the $N_n$, $n\geq1$ are assumed to follow concrete probability laws as Poisson, Bernoulli, binomial or geometry.

Effects of Freezing of Gait on Spatiotemporal Variables, Ground Reaction Forces, and Joint Moments during Sit-to-walk Task in Parkinson's Disease

  • Park, Hwayoung;Youm, Changhong;Son, Minji;Lee, Meounggon;Kim, Jinhee
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2018
  • Objective: This study aimed to analyze the effects of freezing of gait on spatiotemporal variables, ground reaction forces (GRFs), and joint moments during the sit-to-walk task at the preferred and maximum speeds in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Method: The subjects were classified by a neurologist into 12 freezers, 12 non-freezers, and 12 controls. Sit-to-walk parameters were measured during three repetitions of the task in a random order at the preferred and maximum possible speeds. Results: In the sit-to-walk task at the preferred speed, the freezers and non-freezers exhibited a higher peak anterior-posterior GRF (p<0.001) in the sit-to-stand phase and lower step velocity (p<0.001), step length (p<0.001), and peak anterior-posterior GRF (p<0.001) in the first-step phase than the controls. The freezers had higher peak anterior-posterior GRF (p<0.001) and peak moment of the hip joint (p=0.008) in the sit-to-stand phase than the non-freezers. In the sit-to-walk phase at the maximum speed, the freezers and non-freezers had lower peak moment of the hip joint (p=0.008) in the sit-to-stand phase than the controls. The freezers and non-freezers displayed lower step velocity (p<0.001) and peak anterior-posterior GRF (p<0.001) in the first-step phase than the controls. The freezers showed higher peak moments of the hip joint in the sit-to-stand phase than the non-freezers (p=0.008). Conclusion: The PD patients had reduced control ability in sit-to-stand motions for efficient performance of the sit-to-walk task and reduced performance in the sit-to-walk task. Furthermore, the freezers displayed reduced control ability in the sit-to-stand task. Finally, the PD patients exhibited a lower ability to control dynamic stability with changes in speed than the controls.

Development of Workbench for Analysis and Visualization of Whole Genome Sequence (전유전체(Whole gerlome) 서열 분석과 가시화를 위한 워크벤치 개발)

  • Choe, Jeong-Hyeon;Jin, Hui-Jeong;Kim, Cheol-Min;Jang, Cheol-Hun;Jo, Hwan-Gyu
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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    • v.9A no.3
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    • pp.387-398
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    • 2002
  • As whole genome sequences of many organisms have been revealed by small-scale genome projects, the intensive research on individual genes and their functions has been performed. However on-memory algorithms are inefficient to analysis of whole genome sequences, since the size of individual whole genome is from several million base pairs to hundreds billion base pairs. In order to effectively manipulate the huge sequence data, it is necessary to use the indexed data structure for external memory. In this paper, we introduce a workbench system for analysis and visualization of whole genome sequence using string B-tree that is suitable for analysis of huge data. This system consists of two parts : analysis query part and visualization part. Query system supports various transactions such as sequence search, k-occurrence, and k-mer analysis. Visualization system helps biological scientist to easily understand whole structure and specificity by many kinds of visualization such as whole genome sequence, annotation, CGR (Chaos Game Representation), k-mer, and RWP (Random Walk Plot). One can find the relations among organisms, predict the genes in a genome, and research on the function of junk DNA using our workbench.