• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall-Runoff simulation

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Analysis of future flood inundation change in the Tonle Sap basin under a climate change scenario

  • Lee, Dae Eop;Jung, Sung Ho;Yeon, Min Ho;Lee, Gi Ha
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.433-446
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.

Runoff and Erosion of Alachlor, Ethalfluralin, Ethoprophos and Pendimethalin by Rainfall Simulation (인공강우에 의한 alachlor, ethalfluralin, ethoprophos 및 pendimethalin의 토양표면 유출)

  • Kim, Chan-Sub;Ihm, Yang-Bin;Lee, Young-Deuk;Oh, Byung-Youl
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.306-315
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    • 2006
  • Two different experiments, adsorption/desorption and runoff by rainfall simulation of four pesticides, such as alachlor, ethalfluralin, ethoprophos and pendimethalin were undertaken their runoff and erosion losses from sloped land and to assess the influence of their properties and environmental factors on them. The mobility of four pesticides and which phase they were transported by were examined in adsorption study, and the influence of rainfall pattern and sloping degree on the pesticide losses were evaluated in simulated rainfall study. Freundlich adsorption parameters (K) by the adsorption and desorption methods were 1.2 and 2.2 for ethoprophos, 1.5 and 2.6 for alachlor, respectively. And adsorption distribution coefficients (Kd) by the adsorption and desorption methods were 56 and 94 for ethalfluralin, and 104 and 189 for pendimethalin, respectively. K or Kd values of pesticides by the desorption method which were desorbed from the soil after thoroughly mixing, were higher than these ones by the adsorption method which pesticides dissolved in water were adsorbed to the soil. Another parameter (1/n), representing the linearity of adsorption, in Freundlich equation for the pesticides tested ranged from 0.96 to 1.02 by the desorption method and from 0.87 to 1.02 by the adsorption method. Therefore, the desorption method was more independent from pesticide concentration in soil solution than the adsorption method. By Soil Survey and Land Research Center (SSLRC)'s classification for pesticide mobility, alachlor and ethoprophos were classified into moderately mobile $(75{\leq}Koc<500)$, and ethalfluralin and pendimethalin were included to non-mobile class (Koc > 4000). Runoff and erosion loss of pesticides by three rainfall scenarios were from 1.0 to 6.4% and from 0.3 to 1.2% for alachlor, from 1.0 to 2.5% and from 1.7 to 10.1% for ethalfluralin, from 1.3 to 2.9% and from 3.9 to 10.8% for pendimethalin, and from 0.6 to 2.7% and from 0.1 % 0.3% for ethoprophos, respectively. Distribution of pesticides in soil profile were investigated after the simulated rainfall study. Alachlor and ethoprophos were leached to from 10 to 15 cm of soil layer, but ethalfluralin and pendimethalin were mostly remained at the top 5 cm of soil profile. The losses of the pesticides at 30% of sloping degree were from 0.2 to 1.9 times higher than those at 10%. The difference of their runoff loss was related with their concentration in runoff water while the difference of their erosion loss must be closely related with the quantity of soil eroded.

LONG-TERM STREAMFLOW SENSITIVITY TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY UNDER IPCC SRES CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

  • Kang, Boo-sik;Jorge a. ramirez, Jorge-A.-Ramirez
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.81-99
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    • 2004
  • Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.

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Analysis of Stream Discharge Characteristic at Control Point for Runoff Model Application (유출모의를 위한 주요제어지점 유량특성 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Lee, Bae-Sung;Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Hwang, Man-Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.11 s.172
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    • pp.905-914
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    • 2006
  • For an accurate rainfall-runoff simulation in the river basin, not evaluation of runoff model but accurate runoff data are very important. In this study, SSARR model was applied to the Geum River basin and these results are compared with runoff data observed at the Gongju gauging station. The model results didn't good fit the discharge data determined from the rating curve at Gongju gauging station during normal and dry season, especially. For the reliability analysis for the existing rating curve, we observed new stream discharge set from 2003 to 2005. We also estimated long term runoff data from the base flow separation method and defined the hydraulic characteristics. The results show that the new observed stream discharge is similar to the rainfall-runoff model results but existing rating curve seems to be overestimated about 10-20% during normal and dry season. We found that the continuous monitoring and update for the existing rating curve at the gaging station are needed for accurate estimation of runoff data.

Application of AGNPS Water Quality Computer Simulation Model to a Cattle Grazing Pasture

  • Jeon, Woo-Jeong;Parajuli, P.;Yoo, K.-H.
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.7
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2003
  • This research compared the observed and model predicted results that include; runoff, sediment yield, and nutrient losses from a 2.71 ha cattle grazing pasture field in North Alabama. Application of water quality computer simulation models can inexpensively and quickly assess the impact of pasture management practices on water quality. AGNPS single storm based model was applied to the three pasture species; Bermudagrass, fescue, and Ryegrass. While comparing model predicted results with observed data, it showed that model can reasonably predict the runoff, sediment yield and nutrient losses from the watershed. Over-prediction and under-prediction by the model occurred during very high and low rainfall events, respectively. The study concluded that AGNPS model can be reasonably applied to assess the impacts of pasture management practices and chicken litter application on water quality.

A Runoff Simulation Using SWAT Model Depending on Changes to Land Use in Jeju Island (SWAT 모형에 의한 제주도 외도유역의 토지이용변화에 따른 유출량 산정)

  • Han, Woong-Ku;Yang, Sung-Kee
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.1057-1063
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    • 2009
  • Since Jeju island has depended a water resource on the underground water because of a poor development of the surface flow, Jeju island is in need of the surface resource development to prevent the future shortage of the underground water due to excessive development and use of it. The study shows that the SWAT model(continuous rainfall-runoff model) is applied to estimate the outflow in the drainage watershed area, where it has been urbanized through the change of the land, such as a tourism development, cultivation, housing, and impervious layer road development. Near Oaedo watershed area in Jeju island, weather and topographical SWAT input data were collected, and compared the outflow change of past and present.

Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis of Extended TOPMODEL (확장 TOPMODEL의 영역화 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.741-755
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    • 1998
  • An extension of TOPMODEL was developed for rainfall-runoff simulation in agricultural watersheds equipped with tile drains. Tile drain functions are incorporated into the framework of TOPMODEL. Nine possible flow generation scenarios are suggested for tile drained watershed and applied in the modeling procedure. In the model development process, the traditional physically based storage approach and a new approach using a transfer function for the simulation of the flow in the unsaturated zone were compared. In order to provide better insight into the simulation process, a regionalized sensitivity analysis was performed to test the performance of the model and to compare the behavior of the transfer function to that of the simple storage related formulation. The results of analysis show good performance of the transfer function approach. Since the rainfall-runoff response pattern tends to vary seasonally, seven events distributed throughout a year were used in the sensitivity analysis to investigate the seasonal variation of the hydrologic characteristics. It is found that the sensitivity of each parameter described by the model are varied seasonally.

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Design of Detention Pond and Critical Duration of Design Rainfall in Seoul

  • Lee, Jong-Tae;Yoon, Sei-Eui;Lee, Jae-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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    • v.5
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 1994
  • This study is to determine the critical duration of design rainfall and to utilize it for the design of detention pond with pump station. To examine the effect of the duration and temporal distribytion of the design rainfall, Huff's quartile method is used for the 9 cases of durations (ranges from 20 to 240 minutes) with ten years return period, and the ILLUDAS model is used for runoff analysis. The storage ratio, which is the ratio of maximum storage amounts to total runoff volume, is introduced to determine the criticalduration of design rainfall. The duration which maximizes the storage ratio is adopted as the critical duration. This study is applied to 18 urban drainage watercheds with pump station in Seoul, of which the range of watershed area is 0.24~12.70$km^2$. The result of simulation shows that the duration which maximizes storage ratio is 30 and 60 minutes on the whole. It is also shown that the storage ratios of 2nd - and 3rd-quartile pattern are larger than those of 1st- and 4th-quartile pattern of temporal distribution. A simplified empirical formula for Seoul area is suggested by the regression analysis between the maximum storage ratio and the peak ratio. This formula can be utilized for the preliminary design and planning of detention pond with pump station.

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A Study on Runoff Characteristics by the Moving Storm in the Watershed using GIS (GIS를 활용한 유역내 이동강우에 의한 유출특성 연구)

  • Choe, Gye-Un;Gang, Hui-Gyeong;Park, Yong-Seop
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.793-804
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    • 2000
  • Even thought the distribution of the rainfall in the watershed is spatially and temporally vareid, the simulation of the runoff from the watershed is frequently conducted with the constant rainfall distribution assumption. However, the runoff simulated with this assumption indicates over the certain accuracy limitation and the difference by this assumption is bigger in the case of the moving storm which can be frequently indicated with the typhoon, cyclone and hurricane and so on. In this paper, the runoff characteristics of the moving storm are investigated using GIS technique and the isohyetal map observed from 16:00 to 23:00 on August 2, 1999 to the Chun Yang rain gage. The runoff simulated by the moving storms moving to the eight different directions is compared with the others and indicates the big difference with the maximum runoff in the SE direction in the Bokha experimental watershed. Also, the runoff by the moving storm having different moving velocities is compared with the others and indicates the big difference with the bigger discharge in the slowly moving storm. Through the simulation using GIS technique in the watershed, the advantages of the easy preparation of the data and the short computational time can be obtained.

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River Flow Forecasting Model for the Youngsan Estuary Reservoir Operations(I) -Estimation Runof Hydrographs at Naju Station (영산호 운영을 위한 홍수예보모형의 개발(I) -나주지점의 홍수유출 추정-)

  • 박창언;박승우
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 1994
  • The series of the papers consist of three parts to describe the development, calibration, and applications of the flood forecasting models for the Youngsan Estuarine Dam located at the mouth of the Youngsan river. And this paper discusses the hydrologic model for inflow simulation at Naju station, which constitutes 64 percent of the drainage basin of 3521 .6km$^2$ in area. A simplified TANK model was formulated to simulate hourly runoff from rainfall And the model parameters were optirnized using historical storm data, and validated with the records. The results of this paper were summarized as follows. 1. The simplified TANK model was formulated to conceptualize the hourly rainfall-run-off relationships at a watershed with four tanks in series having five runoff outlets. The runoff from each outlet was assumed to be proportional to the storage exceeding a threshold value. And each tank was linked with a drainage hole from the upper one. 2. Fifteen storm events from four year records from 1984 to 1987 were selected for this study. They varied from 81 to 289rn'm The watershed averaged, hourly rainfall data were determined from those at fifteen raingaging stations using a Thiessen method. Some missing and unrealistic records at a few stations were estimated or replaced with the values determined using a reciprocal distance square method from abjacent ones. 3. An univariate scheme was adopted to calibrate the model parameters using historical records. Some of the calibrated parameters were statistically related to antecedent precipitation. And the model simulated the streamflow close to the observed, with the mean coefficient of determination of 0.94 for all storm events. 4. The simulated streamflow were in good agreement with the historical records for ungaged condition simulation runs. The mean coefficient of determination for the runs was 0.93, nearly the same as calibration runs. This may indicates that the model performs very well in flood forecasting situations for the watershed.

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