• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall prediction

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Analysis of Sea Clutter Removal Capability in a Weather Radar Based on a Vertical Phased Array Antenna (수직 위상 배열 안테나 기반 기상 레이다에서의 해수면 클러터 제거 성능 분석)

  • Lee, Jonggil
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.155-161
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    • 2018
  • Many short range weather radars with the low elevation search capability are needed for analysis and prediction of unusual weather changes or rainfall phenomena which occurs regionally. However, due to the characteristics of low elevation electromagnetic wave beam, it is highly probable that the received weather signals of these radars are contaminated by the ground and sea clutter. Since most of ground clutter appears around the very narrow low Doppler frequency region, it is somewhat easy to separate. However, the sea clutter removal is very difficult since it can occupy the broad Doppler frequency region according to weather conditions. Therefore, in this paper, the sea clutter removal capability is analyzed for a phased array weather radar which use vertical array elements for electronic elevation beam steering. Also, it is shown that the sea clutter removal can be achieved appropriately using the receiver beam forming technology in a phased array antenna.

Analysis of Phase Noise Effects in a Short Range Weather Radar (단거리 기상 레이다에서의 위상 잡음 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Jonggil
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.1090-1098
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    • 2018
  • Many short range weather radars with the low elevation search capability are needed for analysis and prediction of unusual weather changes or rainfall phenomena which occurs regionally. However, due to the characteristics of low elevation electromagnetic wave beam, it is highly probable that the received weather signals of these radars are seriously contaminated by the ground clutter. Therefore, the filter removing low Doppler frequency band is generally used to mitigate this problem. However, the phase noise in a radar system may limit the removal of the strong clutter and this may cause serious problems in estimating weather parameters because of the remaining clutter. Therefore, in this paper, the characteristics of phase noise in a radar system are investigated and the effects of the system phase noise are analyzed in the improvement of signal to clutter ratio for the strong clutter environment such as a short and low-elevated weather radar.

Model for assessing the contamination of agricultural plants by accidentally released tritium (삼중수소 사고유출로 인한 농작물 오염 평가 모델)

  • Keum, Dong-Kwon;Lee, Han-Soo;Kang, Hee-Suk;Choi, Young-Ho;Lee, Chang-Woo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2005
  • A dynamic compartment model was developed to appraise the level of the contamination of agricultural plants by accidentally released tritium from nuclear facility. The model consists of a set of inter-connected compartments representing atmosphere, soil and plant. In the model three categories of plant are considered: leafy vegetables, grain plants and tuber plants, of which each is modeled separately to account for the different transport pathways of tritium. The predictive accuracy of the model was tested through the analysis of the tritium exposure experiments for rice-plants. The predicted TFWT(tissue free water tritium) concentration of the rice ear at harvest was greatly affected by the absolute humidity of air, the ratio of root uptake, and the rate of rainfall, while its OBT(organically bound tritium) concentration the stowing period of the ear, the absolute humidity of air and the content of hydrogen in the organic phase. There was a good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental results lot the OBT concentration of the ear.

Estimation of Hydraulic Characteristics and Prediction of Groundwater Level in the Eastern Coastal Aquifer of Jeju Island (제주도 동부 해안대수층의 수리특성 산정과 지하수위 예측)

  • Jo, Si-Beom;Jeon, Byung-Chil;Park, Eun-Gyu;Choi, Kwang-Jun;Song, Sung-Ho;Kim, Gi-Pyo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.661-672
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    • 2014
  • Due to tidal force, it is very difficult to estimate the hydraulic parameters of high permeable aquifer near coastal area in Jeju Island. Therefore, to eliminate the impact of tidal force from groundwater level and estimate the hydraulic properties, tidal response technique has been mainly studied. In this study we have extracted 38 tidal constituents from groundwater level and harmonic constants including frequency, amplitude, and phase of each constituent using T_TIDE subroutine which is used to estimate oceanic tidal constituents, and then we have estimated hydraulic diffusivity associated with amplitude attenuation factor(that is the ratio of groundwater level amplitude to sea level amplitude for each tidal constituent) and phase lag(that is phase difference between groundwater level and sea level for each constituent). Also using harmonic constants for each constituent, we made the sinusoidal wave and then we constructed the synthesized wave which linearly combined sinusoidal wave. Finally, we could get residuals(net groundwater level) which was excluded most of tidal influences by eliminating synthesized wave from raw groundwater level. As a result of comparing statistics for synthesized level and net groundwater level, we found that the statistics for net groundwater level was more insignificant than those of synthesized wave. Moreover, in case of coastal aquifer which the impact of tidal force is even more than those of other environmental factors such as rainfall and groundwater yield, it is possible to predict groundwater level using synthesized wave and regression analysis of residuals.

Uncertainty of Simulated Paddy Rice Yield using LARS-WG Derived Climate Data in the Geumho River Basin, Korea (LARS-WG 기후자료를 이용한 금호강 유역 모의발생 벼 생산량의 불확실성)

  • Nkomozepi, Temba D.;Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates the trends and uncertainty of the impacts of climate change on paddy rice production in the Geumho river basin. The Long Ashton Research Station stochastic Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to derive future climate data for the Geumho river basin from 15 General Circulation models (GCMs) for 3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A2, A1B and B1) included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) AquaCrop, a water-driven crop model, was statistically calibrated for the 1982 to 2010 climate. The index of agreement (IoA), prediction efficiency ($R^2$), percent bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and a visual technique were used to evaluate the adjusted AquaCrop simulated yield values. The adjusted simulated yields showed RMSE, NSE, IoA and PBIAS of 0.40, 0.26, 0.76 and 0.59 respectively. The 5, 9 and 15 year central moving averages showed $R^2$ of 0.78, 0.90 and 0.96 respectively after adjustment. AquaCrop was run for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2050s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099). Climate change projections for Geumho river basin generally indicate a hotter and wetter future climate with maximum increase in the annual temperature of $4.5^{\circ}C$ in the 2090s A1B, as well as maximum increase in the rainfall of 45 % in the 2090s A2. The means (and ranges) of paddy rice yields are projected to increase by 21 % (17-25 %), 34 % (27-42 %) and 43 % (31-54 %) for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. The A1B shows the largest rice yield uncertainty in all time slices with standard deviation of 0.148, 0.189 and $0.173t{\cdot}ha^{-1}$ for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively.

Development of a software framework for sequential data assimilation and its applications in Japan

  • Noh, Seong-Jin;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Shiiba, Michiharu;Kim, Sun-Min;Yorozu, Kazuaki
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.39-39
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    • 2012
  • Data assimilation techniques have received growing attention due to their capability to improve prediction in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modelling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modelling framework for sequential data assimilation, namely MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modelling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. In this software framework, sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and radar rainfall estimates is assessed simultaneously in sequential data assimilation.

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Influence of abiotic factors on seasonal incidence of pests of tasar Silkworm Antheraea mylitta D.

  • Siddaiah, Aruna A.;Prasad, Rajendra;Rai, Suresh;Dubey, Omprakash;Satpaty, Subrat;Sinha, Ravibhushan;Prsad, Suraj;Sahay, Alok
    • International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.135-144
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    • 2014
  • Rearing of tropical tasar silkworm, Antheraea mylitta Drury is mainly conducted in outdoor on Terminalia tomentosa W. & A. a nature grown primary host plant available in forest and also on raised primary host plant Terminalia arjuna Bedd. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall are the main environmental factors for occurrence of pests (parasites and predators) of tasar silkworm during I, II and III crop rearing in the tropical tasar producing zones. The present study was aimed to study the influence of abiotic factors on prevalence of tasar silkworm pests. The study was conducted at different agro-climatic regions viz., Central Tasar Research &Training Institute, Ranchi, Jharkhand, Regional Extension Centre, Katghora, Chattisgarh and Regional Extension Centre, Hatgamaria during 2010-13 covering 3 seed crop and 6 commercial crops. Data on incidence of tropical tasar silkworm endo-parasitoids like Uzi Fly, Blepharipa zebina Walker and Ichneumon fly (Yellow Fly), Xathopimpla pedator, Fabricius and Predators such as Stink bug (Eocanthecona furcellata Wolf), Reduviid bug (Sycanus collaris Fabricius) and Wasp (Vespa orientalis Linnaeus) was recorded Weekly. The meteorological data was collected daily. Data was collected from 4 different agro-climatic zones of tasar growing areas. Analysis of the data revealed a significant negative correlation between abiotic factors and incidence of ichneumon fly and uzi fly. Based on the 3 years data on prevalence of pests region-wise pest calendars and prediction models were developed.

Development of Reservoir Operation Model using Simulation Technique in Flood Season(II) (모의기법에 의한 홍수기 저수지 운영 모형 개발(II))

  • Sing, Yong-Lo;Maeng, Sung-Jin;Ko, Ick-Hwan;Lee, Hwan-Ki
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.797-805
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    • 2002
  • The EV ROM, a joint reservoir operation model for flood control that accounts for the downstream flow condition, has been introduced in the preceding article (Shin et al, 2000). A joint reservoir operation model computer program for the Geum river basin, developed by FORTRAN Power Station 4.0 using the EV ROM, is hereby presented. Three case studies of flood control by joint operation of the Yongdam and Daechung Multipurpose Dams in the Geum river basin revealed that the performance of the EV ROM was superior to the existing Rigid ROM and Technical ROM. This is because the EV ROM can account for the downstream flow condition as well as the upstream inflow and the reservoir water level. In order to apply for various floods events in the future, consistent improvement of the developed EV ROM and efforts for more accurate rainfall prediction are required.

Hydrograph Separation Using EMMA Model for the Coniferous Forest Catchment in Gwangneung Gyeonggido, Republic of Korea (I) - Determination of the End Members and Tracers -

  • Kim, Kyongha;Yoo, Jae-Yun;Jun, Jae-Hong;Choi, Hyung Tae;Jeong, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.95 no.5
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    • pp.556-561
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    • 2006
  • This study was conducted to choose end-members and tracers for application of End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) model for the coniferous forest catchment, Gwangneung Gyeongi-do near Seoul metropolitan of South Korea (N $37^{\circ}$ 45', E $127^{\circ}$ 09'). This coniferous forest of Pinus Korainensis and Abies holophylla was planted at stocking rate of $3.0stems\;ha^{-1}$ in 1976. Thinning and pruning were carried out two times in the spring of 1996 and 2004 respectively. We monitored two successive rainfall events during ten days from June 26, 205 to July 5, 2005. Two storm events were selected to determine the end members and natural traces for hydrograph separation. The event 1 amounts to 161.9 m for two days from June 26 to 27, 2005. The event 2 precipitates to 139.2 mm for one day of July 1, 205. Throughfall, groundwater, soil water and stream water of the two events above were sampled through the bulk and automatic sampler. Their chemical properties were analyzed for prediction of the main tracer. The end members that contribute to the stream runoff were identified from the three components including groundwater, soil water and throughfall. Each component and stream water in the two events formed the suitable mixing diagram in case of chloride-nitrate ion and sulfate-potassium ion. Especially, chloride-nitrate ion was found to be the most suitable tracers for EMMA model in the two events.

A study on prediction of heavy rainfall due to cloud cluster associated with meso-low (중규모 저기압과 연관된 구름무리에 의한 호우의 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yun Kyu;Lee, Tae-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.331-331
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    • 2017
  • 2011 년부터 2014 년까지 4 년간의 여름철에 한반도에 비교적 많은 강수를 남긴 23 개의 중규모 저기압-구름무리 집중호우 사례를 선정하여, 이들 사례에서의 중규모 저기압 발생과 이동 그리고 그것에 동반된 강수계에 의한 강수 발생을 수치예측하는 실험을 수행하였다. WRF 모델을 이용하여 12 km와 4 km 수평격자 크기로 수치실험을 진행하였으며, 각 사례에 대해 중규모 저기압이 발생한 시점을 초기 시각으로 하여 수치적분을 수행하였다. 수치실험 결과와 AWS 강수량 관측 자료를 $0.1^{\circ}{\times}0.1^{\circ}$ 격자에 각각 내삽한 후 비교하였다. 12 km 격자 실험에서는 25 mm/12h 문턱값에 대해 23개의 사례 중 9개 (39 %)만이 0.3이 넘는 성공임계지수(TS)를 나타냈고, 50 mm/12h 문턱값에 대해서는 17개 사례 중 7개 (41 %)의 사례에서 0.3이 넘는 TS가 나타났다. 4 km 실험에서는 25 mm/12h 문턱값에 대해 23개의 사례 중 10개 (43 %) 사례에서 0.3이 넘는 TS 값이 나타났고, 50 mm/12h 문턱값에 대해서는 17개 사례 중 7개 (41 %)로 나타나 WRF 모델의 수평격자 크기와 관계없이 비슷한 성능을 보였다. 중규모 저기압이 진행하는 경로에 따라 예측 능력에 차이가 나타났다. 23개 사례를 중규모 저기압 발생지점으로부터의 이동경로에 따라 준 직선 경로 사례 그룹, 곡선형 경로 사례 그룹, 정체사례 그룹으로 분류하여 각 그룹에 대해 예측 능력을 조사한 결과, 직전 경로 사례들에 대한 4km 격자 모델 예측은 55 %의 사례에서 0.3보다 큰 TS값을 보여, 30 %의 사례에서 0.3 이상의 TS 값을 보인 곡선형 경로 사례들에 대한 예측보다 상대적으로 높은 예측 신뢰도를 보여 주었다.

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