• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.611-620
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• 2018

Limitations on human and material resources make it is difficult to conduct Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) tasks for the entire ammunition. Stockpile ammunition life prediction studies can contribute to efficient ASRP tasks. This study assess the shelf-life of ammunition, using survival analysis based on ASRP results for 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition from 2003 to 2016. Traditional assessments often use solely storage duration as the only main independent variable; however, this assessment used other factors such as ammunition magazine shape and weather factors with the stockpile shelf-life as independent variables to conduct a Cox's proportional hazard model analysis. This was then followed by an assessment of ammunition magazine type, maximum temperature and rainfall factors influence on the shelf-life of 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition. As a result, the type of ammunition magazine, maximum temperature and the rainfall influence the shelf-life of 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.171-182
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• 2006

In this study, rainfall-runoff analysis was performed for Yongdam watershed($930km^2$) using KOWACO flood analysis model based on Storage Function Method as lumped hydrologic model and Vflo which was developed for real-time flood prediction by University of Oklahoma. The results shows that, the hydrographs of lumped and distributed model with uncalibrated parameters which estimated from physical or experimental relationship show significant biases from observed hydrographs. However, the hydrograph at Cheoncheon site from the distributed model follows the actual hydrograph to an extent that no more calibration is necessary. It encourages that distributed model can have advantages for application in real-time flood forecasting as physically based distributed hydrologic model which can construct event-independent basin parameter group.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.67-76
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• 1993

Korea being composed of a number of mountains has been damaged and destroyed in lives and properties by the occurrence of many landslides during the wet seasons. Therefore, it is necessary to study the forecast system and risk analysis for the occurrence of landslides : the rise of groundwater levels due to rainfall is the main cause of landslides. In this paper, the autoregressive models are used to predict the grondwater levls using cases of both time invariant and time -varing autoregressive coefficients. In the former case, AR(1), AR(2), and AR(3) models are selected and their single-valued parameters are estimated to fit them to the observed groundwater level series. In the latter case, modified AR(1) and typical AR(2) models are used as process model and a discrete Kalman Filtering technique is utilized to estimate the parameters which are themselves a function of time. The results show that the real time forecast system using the time-varying autoregressive coefficinets as well as time -invariant AR model is good to predict the groundwater level in hillside slopes and we might get better result if we use the time-hourly rainfall intensity as well as the observed groundwater level.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.19 no.9
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• pp.29-36
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• 2018

Several studies have been conducted on monitoring system and automatic measuring instruments to prevent slope failure in advance in Korea and overseas. However, these studies have quite complex structure. Since most of the measurement systems are installed on the slope surface, the researches are carried on the measurement system that detects sign of slope collapse in advance and alerts are still unsatisfactory. In this study, slope collapse experiments were carried out to understand the slope failure mechanism according to rainfall conditions. The water content and displacement behavior at the early stage of the slope failure were analyzed through the measurement of the ground displacement and water content. The results of this study can be used by local government as a basic data for the design of slope failure alarm system to evacuate residents in case of slope failure or landslide due to heavy rainfall.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.352-352
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• 2011

최근 이상기후 및 집중호우 등의 영향으로 국지적으로 큰 강우가 발생하여 재산피해 및 인명피해를 발생시키고 있으며, 과거 강우발생 빈도에 비하여 큰 강우가 발생되고 있다. 이러한 증가되는 추세에 대하여 확률강우량 산정시 반영하고 있는 추세이며(한만신, 2005), 이렇게 반영된 결과는 확률강우량의 증가와 함께 설계시 반영되어 안전하게 수공구조물을 시공하게 된다. 하지만, 이러한 강우의 경향을 단순하게 증가추세로만 판단하여 미래의 강우를 증가라는 개념으로 검증 절차없이 도입하기에는 과대 추정될 우려가 있으며, 과대 추정된 확률강우량은 결국 시공비의 증가를 유도하여 경제적으로 불이익이 발생한다. 따라서, 과거의 강우자료를 통하여 분석된 최근의 강우 예측결과가 어느정도의 타당성을 갖고 설계된 것인지 판단하여 향후 강우 예측을 통한 확률강우량 산정시 반영하여야 할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구에는 강우 예측을 위하여 사용되고 있는 ARIMA 모형을 이용하여 인천지역의 1961년~2005년까지의 강우자료를 이용하여 2010년까지의 강우를 예측함으로써 실제 강우자료와의 비교를 통하여 강우 예측의 신뢰성을 검토하여 미래 강우에 대한 예측에 있어서 보다 신뢰성을 확보하고자 하였다. 또한, 강우추세에 의한 인천지역의 확률강우량을 산정함으로써 동일 유역에서의 다른 분포형이나 확률강우를 사용함으로써 발생되는 설계의 혼란을 방지하고자 한다. 본 연구를 위하여 인천지방 기상대의 관측자료를 이용하여 1961년부터 2010년까지의 분단위 강우자료를 획득하였으며, 임의시간에 의한 지속시간별 최대강우량을 산정함으로써 기존의 설계에서 사용되어 왔던 고정시간의 환산계수 대신 실제 최대강우량을 이용함으로써 강우 예측에 대한 정확도를 향상하였고, 확률강우강도식 선정시 지역 강우 특성을 고려하여 결정하여야 한다는 결론을 도출하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.281-285
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• 2007

본 연구에서는 보다 신뢰성 있고 정확한 정량적 강우예측자료를 생성하기 위하여 레이더강우 및 강우수치예보자료를 합성하는 기법을 제시하였고, 레이더 전처리 및 예측시스템, GIS와 연계한 물리적기반의 분포형모형인 Vflo모형 등 최신 수자원 IT기술을 활용하여 홍수기 돌발홍수에 대응한 초단기 정량적 강우-유출예측을 목적으로 향후 실시간으로 적용 가능한 분포형유출예측시스템의 기반을 구축하고자 하였다. 대상유역은 국지적인 고해상도 지형효과를 고려한 QPM이 개발되어 있는 금강권역의 용담댐유역이며, 예측 강우에 대한 호우사상은 2005년 이후 발생한 3개 강우사상을 대상으로 하였다. 한편, 기상 레이더 자료로부터 산정된 강수량의 수문학적 적용을 위하여 DEM, 토지피복도, 토양도 등의 기본 GIS자료들을 수집 및 구축하였고 물리적기반의 분포형모형(Vflo)의 입력인자로 사용하기 위한 12개의 공간분포형 수문매개변수들을 대표적인 GIS 소프트웨어인 ArcGIS 및 ArcView를 활용하여 추출하였으며, Vflo모형의 현업 적용가능성을 오프라인 상에서 검증해보았다. 모형 검증결과, GIS를 이용한 지형, 토양, 토지피복과 같은 물리적 특성을 사용한 모형의 초기 설정을 향상시킴에 의해 첨두유량, 유출량, 첨두도달시간차 등에서 만족할만한 결과를 보여주었다고 사료된다. 레이더 및 수치예보자료와 합성한 4가지의 형태(QPE, JQPE, QPM, BQPF)의 분포형 입력강우를 이용하여 적용해 본 결과 Nowcasting기법을 이용한 JQPF는 자료의 특성상 초기 1시간30분동안은 비교적 양호한 결과를 얻었으나 3시간 전후로 가면서 예측강우의 질이 저하되기 시작하였으나 QPM을 합성함으로써 생산한 BQPF는 보다 신뢰성있고 양호한 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 이러한 결과들은 향후 정량적 분포형강우 예측을 이용한 실시간 홍수유출 예측시 댐운영자는 리드타임(홍수선행시간)을 충분히 확보함으로서 안정적이고 예측 가능한 홍수조절을 하는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 이와 같이 다양한 단기저수지 유입량의 예측정보 제공으로 다목적댐 저수지 운영모형의 효용성을 제고하여 향후 실제 저수지 유입량 예측에 이용함으로써 저수지 단기운영효율 개선에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.331-337
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• 2015

A new technique is presented to detect unstable slope behavior, based on Hotelling's T² analysis of pore pressure and water content obtained during flume tests using granitic and gneissic weathered soils. Three sets of pore pressure-water content values were simultaneously obtained during each test, and T² statistics at the 90.0% and 95.0% confidence levels were calculated based on the correlations between values. The results show that unsuccessful detection of some local failures of the flume slope depended on the sensor position. In the case of global slope failures, anomalous behavior was detected between several hundred and several thousand seconds before the event as T² statistics exceeded the confidence interval 90%. Hotelling's T² analysis provides a single control criterion because it enables correlations between diverse measured values within the same slope; the criterion also includes stepwise criteria for a forecasting and warning system based on confidence levels.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.14-22
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• 2015

In order to analyze the flow and pollutant runoff characteristics of industrial area, SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) was applied. The model was calibrated based on the measured data in the waterway of Sihwa industrial complex during six events, 2008-2009. The build-up process of pollutants is expressed as Power-linear form and washoff as Power-Exponential form. The validated model was used to analyze the change of the runoff characteristics in the industrial area. In the study area, runoff flow is decreased with an increase in impervious area, but there is no significant change in peak time. The results of this study will be used as basic information of impervious area reduction and watershed management in industrial areas.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.561-570
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• 1997

The feature of this paper is (1) to analyze the characteristics of rainfall-runoff relationship with kinematic wave theory, (2) to study the computational model to estimate the sediment yield, (3) to analyze the effects of bed change by transport formulas and the number of watershed division, and (4) to verify the model application with observation of channel data and measurement of rainfall, runoff, sediment discharge in Pyung-Chang River Basin. The calculated time of concentration of peak discharge occured little earlier than the actual, but the tendency of hydrograph coincided with observation. The shape of sediment hydrographs was similar to the water hydrograph. Based on above results, the applicability of the model was verified in detail. As the number of watershed division increased, the difference between the measured runoff and sediment values and the estimated ones decreased. The result of calculation with Yalin's formula for surface and Acker-White's one for channel gave the best agreement with the measured data among the six selected sediment transport foumulas.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.344-354
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• 2021

Optical methods such as UV and fluorescence spectrophotometers can be applied not only in the qualitative analysis of dissolved organic matter (DOM), but also in real-time quantitative DOM monitoring for wastewater and natural water. In this study, we measure the UV₂₅₄ and fluorescence excitation emission spectra for a sewage treatment plant influent and effluent, and river water before and after sewage effluent flows into the river to examine the composition and origin of DOM. In addition, a correlation analysis between quantified DOM characteristics and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was conducted. Based on the fluorescence excitation emission spectra analysis, it was confirmed that the protein-type tryptophan-like DOM was the dominant substance in the influent, and that the organic matter exhibited relatively more humic properties after biological treatment. However, DOM in river water showed the fluorescence characteristics of terrestrial humic-like and algal tyrosine-like (protein-like) organic matter. In addition, a correlation analysis was conducted between the DOC and optical indices such as UV₂₅₄, the fluorescence intensity of protein-like and humic-like organic matter, then DOC prediction models were suggested for wastewater and river monitoring during non-rainfall and rainfall events. This study provides basic information that can improve the understanding of the contribution of DOC concentration by DOM components, and can be used for organic carbon concentration management in wastewater and natural water.