The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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A study on the factors affecting shelf-life for 60, 81mm mortar ammunition

60, 81mm 박격포탄의 저장수명 요인 연구

  • Received : 2018.07.23
  • Accepted : 2018.09.30
  • Published : 2018.10.31
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Abstract

Limitations on human and material resources make it is difficult to conduct Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) tasks for the entire ammunition. Stockpile ammunition life prediction studies can contribute to efficient ASRP tasks. This study assess the shelf-life of ammunition, using survival analysis based on ASRP results for 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition from 2003 to 2016. Traditional assessments often use solely storage duration as the only main independent variable; however, this assessment used other factors such as ammunition magazine shape and weather factors with the stockpile shelf-life as independent variables to conduct a Cox's proportional hazard model analysis. This was then followed by an assessment of ammunition magazine type, maximum temperature and rainfall factors influence on the shelf-life of 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition. As a result, the type of ammunition magazine, maximum temperature and the rainfall influence the shelf-life of 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition.

ASRP(Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program; 저장탄약신뢰성평가) 업무는 인적, 물적 문제로 인하여 모든 탄에 대해 주기적 검사 수행이 어려운 실정으로, 저장탄약 수명예측 연구는 효율적인 ASRP 업무 수행에 기여할 수 있다. 본 연구는 2003년 2016년에 수행한 60,81mm 박격포탄약에 대한 ASRP 결과를 기초로 저장수명 요인을 연구하였다. 기존의 수명예측 연구에서 저장기간을 주요 독립변인으로 분석한 연구방법과는 다르게, 탄약고형태, 기상요인 등 저장환경을 독립변인으로 Cox의 비례위험모형을 활용하여 분석하였다. 그 결과 60, 81mm 박격포탄의 저장수명에 영향을 미치는 요인은 탄약고형태, 최고온도 요인, 강수량 요인으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

References

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