• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.141-158
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of urban canopy and the horizontal resolution on simulated meteorological variables such as 10-m wind speed, 2-m temperature and precipitation using WRF model for a local, convective rainfall case. We performed four sensitivity tests by varying the use of urban canopy model (UCM) and the horizontal resolution, then compared the model results with observations of AWS network. The focus of our study is over the Seoul metropolitan area for a convective rainfall that occurred on 16 August 16 2015. The analysis shows that mean diurnal variation of temperature is better simulated by the model runs with UCM before the convective rainfall. However, after rainfall, model shows significant difference in air temperature among sensitivity tests depending on the simulated rainfall amount. The rainfall amount is significantly underestimated in 0.5 km resolution model run compared to 1.5 km resolution, particularly over the urban areas. This is due to earlier occurrence of light rainfall in 0.5 km resolution model. Earlier light rainfall in the afternoon eliminates convective instability significantly, which prevents occurrence of rainfall later in the evening. The use of UCM results in a higher maximum rainfall in the domain, which is due to higher temperature in model runs with urban canopy. Earlier occurrence of rainfall in 0.5 km resolution model is related to rapid growth of PBL. Enhanced mixing and higher temperature result in rapid growth of PBL, which provides more favorable conditions for convection in the 0.5 km resolution run with urban canopy. All sensitivity tests show dry bias, which also contributes to the occurrence of light precipitation throughout the simulation period.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.281-289
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 남부 내륙지역에 속한 시군구별 태풍으로 인한 피해를 예측할 수 있는 태풍피해예측모형을 개발하였다. 내륙지역의 태풍 피해는 호우, 강풍으로 인한 피해가 복합적으로 발생하므로, 모형을 구성하는 변수가 많고 다양하나, 내륙지역 시군구 단위의 피해사례는 모형을 개발할 만큼 충분하지 않다. 태풍피해 관련 수문기상 자료는 3시간 간격 지속기간별 최대 강우량, 총강우량, 1-5일 선행강우량, 최대풍속 및 제주도 인근 지역에서의 태풍중심기압을 이용하였다. 피해자료의 부족을 고려하기 위해 군집화를 하였으며, 강우 관련 자료의 다중공선성을 제거하기 위하여 주성분분석 등 다변량 통계분석을 이용하여 권역별(경남, 경북, 전남, 전북)로 피해예측모형을 개발하였다. 모형에 의한 태풍피해추정치와 실측치는 최대 2.2배 정도까지 차이가 발생하였는데, 이는 강풍에 의한 피해를 추정하기 어렵고, 전국 69개 ASOS 관측소에 의한 강우자료가 지역적 강우특성을 제대로 반영하지 못하기 때문인 것으로 추정된다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.358-366
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• 2011

The purpose of this study was to analyze the monthly and seasonal PM10 data using the Autoregressive Error (ARE) model at the southern part of the Gyeonggi-Do, Pyeongtaek monitoring site in Korea. In the ARE model, six meteorological variables and four pollution variables are used as the explanatory variables. The six meteorological variables are daily maximum temperature, wind speed, amount of cloud, relative humidity, rainfall, and global radiation. The four air pollution variables are sulfur dioxide ($SO_2$), nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone ($O_3$). The result shows that monthly ARE models explained about 17~49% of the PM10 concentration. However, the ARE model could be improved if we add the more explanatory variables in the model.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.354-369
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• 2010

2006년 10월 22일에서 24일에 걸쳐 한반도 강릉지역에서 강한 집중호우가 발생했다. 이 기간에 대해서 집중호우가 발생하기 전과 강우강도가 가장 강했을 때 나타나는 종관적, 운동학적 특성을 조사하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 지상일기도, 상층일기도, 적외위성영상, 자동기상관측장비(AWS) 자료, NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) 전구분석자료를 이용하였다. 분석 기간 동안 강릉에서 관측된 총 강수량은 316.5 mm이고, 최대 순간풍속은 $63.7m\;s^{-1}$이다. 일기도를 분석해보면 집중호우가 시작하기 전 온대저기압이 한반도 중부에서 발달하였으며 한반도 북부에 역전기압골이 형성되어 있다. 또한 300 hPa 상층일기도에서는 서해와 한반도 남부에 제트기류가 위치하며, 위치 소용돌이도 이상과 관련된 절리 저기압이 한반도 북서부에서 발달하고 있다. 강우강도가 가장 강했을 때의 특성을 좀 더 자세히 알아보기 위하여 강릉지역의 위치 소용돌이도 이상과 바람, 위치 소용돌이도의 시간-연직 단면도, 연직운동, 발산장과 수렴장, 역학적 온위의 연직분포에 대해 조사하였다. 종관적, 운동학적 과정을 분석해 본 결과 대류권계면 접힘이 집중호우 발생에 큰 역할을 한 것으로 사료된다.

• 대기
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.257-271
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• 2011

The aim of this study is to examine weather modification by urbanization and human activities. The characteristics of the urban heat island (UHI) and precipitation in Seoul metropolitan area of Korea are investigated to demonstrate that cities can change or modify local and nearby weather and climate, and to confirm that cities can initiate convection, change the behavior of convective precipitation, and enhance downstream precipitation. The data used in this study are surface meteorological station data observed in Seoul and its nearby 5 cities for the period of 1960 to 2009, and 162 Automatic Weather System stations data observed in the Seoul metropolitan area from 1998 to 2009. Air temperature and precipitation amount tend to increase with time, and relative humidity decreases because of urbanization. Similar to previous studies for other cities, the average maximum UHI is weakest in summer and is strong in autumn and winter, and the maximum UHI intensity is more frequently observed in the nighttime than in the daytime, decreases with increasing wind speed, and is enhanced for clear skies. Relatively warm regions extend in the east-west direction and relatively cold regions are located near the northern and southern mountains inside Seoul. The satellite cities in the outskirts of Seoul have been rapidly built up in recent years, thus exhibiting increases in near-surface air temperature. The yearly precipitation amount during the last 50 years is increased with time but rainy days are decreased. The heavy rainfall events of more than $20mm\;hr^{-1}$ increases with time. The substantial changes observed in precipitation in Seoul seem to be linked with the accelerated increase in the urban sprawl in recent decades which in turn has induced an intensification of the UHI effect and enhanced downstream precipitation. We also found that the frequency of intense rain showers has increased in Seoul metropolitan area.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.585-597
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• 2019

A disease forecast model for Marssonina blotch of apple was developed based on field observations on airborne spore catches, weather conditions, and disease incidence in 2013 and 2015. The model consisted of the airborne spore model (ASM) and the daily infection rate model (IRM). It was found that more than 80% of airborne spore catches for the experiment period was made during the spore liberation period (SLP), which is the period of days of a rain event plus the following 2 days. Of 13 rain-related weather variables, number of rainy days with rainfall ≥ 0.5 mm per day (L_day), maximum hourly rainfall (P_max) and average daily maximum wind speed (W_avg) during a rain event were most appropriate in describing variations in airborne spore catches during SLP (S_i) in 2013. The ASM, Ŝ_i = 30.280+5.860×L_day×P_max-2.123×L_day×P_max×W_avg was statistically significant and capable of predicting the amount of airborne spore catches during SLP in 2015. Assuming that airborne conidia liberated during SLP cause leaf infections resulting in symptom appearance after 21 days of incubation period, there was highly significant correlation between the estimated amount of airborne spore catches (Ŝ_i) and the daily infection rate (R_i). The IRM, ${\hat{R}}_i$ = 0.039+0.041×Ŝ_i, was statistically significant but was not able to predict the daily infection rate in 2015. No weather variables showed statistical significance in explaining variations of the daily infection rate in 2013.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제22권9호
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• pp.1213-1226
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• 2013

$PM_{10}$ concentration is related to the meteorological variables including to local and synoptic meteorology. In this study the $PM_{10}$ concentrations of Busan in 2007~2011 were analyzed and the days of yellow sand or rainfall which is more than 5 mm were excluded. The sections of $PM_{10}$ concentration were divided according to 10-quantiles, quartiles and 90-quantiles. The 90-quantiles of daily $PM_{10}$ concentration were selected as high concentration dates. In the high concentration dates the daily mean averaged cloudness, mean daily surface wind speed, daily mean surface pressure and PBL height were low and diurnal variation of surface pressure and daily maximum surface temperature were high. When the high $PM_{10}$ dates occurred, the west and south wind blew on the ground and the west wind blew strongly on the 850 hPa. So it seemed that long range transboundary air pollutants made effects on the high concentration dates. The cluster analysis using Hysplit model which is the backward trajectory was made on the high concentration dates. As a result, 3 clusters were extracted and on the short range transboundary cluster the daily mean relative humidity and cloudness were high and PBL height was low.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.1153-1164
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• 2008

The ozone data is one of the important environmental data for measurement of the atmospheric condition of the country. In this article, the Autoregressive Error (ARE) model have been considered for analyzing the ozone data at the northern part of the Gyeonggi-Do, Uijeongbu monitoring site in Korea. The result showed that both overall and monthly ARE models are suited for describing the ozone concentration. In the ARE model, seven meteorological variables and four pollution variables are used as the as the explanatory variables for the ozone data set. The seven meteorological variables are daily maximum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, rainfall, dew point temperature, steam pressure, and amount of cloud. The four air pollution explanatory variables are Sulfur dioxide(SO2), Nitrogen dioxide(NO2), Cobalt(CO), and Promethium 10(PM10). Also, the high level ozone data (over 80ppb) have been analyzed four ARE models, General ARE, HL ARE, PM10 add ARE, Temperature add ARE model. The result shows that the General ARE, HL ARE, and PM10 add ARE models are suited for describing the high level of ozone data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.1117-1124
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• 2010

미세먼지 농도는 국가의 중요한 환경 척도 중의 하나이다. 본 연구에서는 경기도 남부에 위치한 수원시 2003년-2009년 미세먼지 농도를 주위에서 쉽게 구할 수 있는 대기자료와 기상자료를 이용하여 자기회귀오차모형으로 월별로 분석하였다. 미세먼지 농도 분석을 위한 대기자료는 이산화황, 이산화질소, 일산화탄소, 오존 등을 사용했고, 기상자료로는 일 최고온도, 풍속, 상대습도, 강수량, 일사량, 운량을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 자기회귀오차모형으로 월별 미세먼지 농도를 13%-49% 정도 설명할 수 있다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.9-16
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• 2013

해안사구는 해양생태계에서 내륙생태계로 이행하는 생태 이행대(ecotone)로서 중요한 생태계이다. 이러한 독특한 생태계의 서식지 특성 분석의 일환으로 우리나라에서 사구가 가장 넓게 분포하는 지역인 태안해안국립공원에서 미기상 요인(기온, 지온, 상대습도, 토양수분함량, 강우량 및 일사량, 풍향 및 풍속)의 통년 관측자료를 이용하여 계절변화를 분석하였다. 해안사구 초지생태계에서 미기상 요인의 계절변화는 산림생태계와 비교하여 상대적으로 고온 다습하며 6월과 7월에 집중 강우를 보였다. 토양온도는 기온보다 평균 $2{\sim}3^{\circ}C$ 높은 상태로 계절변화 하였으며 토양수분함량은 연중 10% 미만으로 매우 건조한 특성을 나타내었다. 또한 2011년 최고 풍속은 156.72m $s^{-1}$(10월 7일)를 기록하였고 현지 측정한 풍향과 기상청 자료는 상이함을 알 수 있었다. 해안사구 초지생태계의 서식지 특성을 더 잘 이해하기 위해서는 이러한 미기상 요인의 통년 장기관측이 필요할 것이다.