Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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Development of Typhoon Damage Forecasting Function of Southern Inland Area By Multivariate Analysis Technique

다변량 통계분석을 이용한 남부 내륙지역 태풍피해예측모형 개발

  • Kim, Yonsoo (Risk Management Research Institute, LIG System Co., Ltd.) ;
  • Kim, Taegyun (Department of Landscape Architecture, Gyeongnam Nattional Univ. of Science & Tech.)
  • 김연수 ((주)LIG시스템 위험관리연구소) ;
  • 김태균 (경남과학기술대학교 조경학과)
  • Received : 2019.08.19
  • Accepted : 2019.10.17
  • Published : 2019.11.30
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Abstract

In this study, the typhoon damage forecasting model was developed for southern inland district. The typhoon damage in the inland district is caused by heavy rain and strong winds, variables are many and varied, but the damage data of the inland district are not enough to develop the model. The hydrological data related to the typhoon damage were hour maximum rainfall amount which is accumulated 3 hour interval, the total rainfall amount, the 1-5 day anticipated rainfall amount, the maximum wind speed and the typhoon center pressure at latitude 33° near the Jeju island. The Multivariate Analysis such as cluster Analysis considering the lack of damage data and principal component analysis removing multi-collinearity of rainfall data are adopted for the damage forecasting model. As a result of applying the developed model, typhoon damage estimated and observed values were up to 2.2 times. this is caused it is difficult to estimate the damage caused by strong winds and it is assumed that the local rainfall characteristics are not considered properly measured by 69 ASOS.

본 연구에서는 남부 내륙지역에 속한 시군구별 태풍으로 인한 피해를 예측할 수 있는 태풍피해예측모형을 개발하였다. 내륙지역의 태풍 피해는 호우, 강풍으로 인한 피해가 복합적으로 발생하므로, 모형을 구성하는 변수가 많고 다양하나, 내륙지역 시군구 단위의 피해사례는 모형을 개발할 만큼 충분하지 않다. 태풍피해 관련 수문기상 자료는 3시간 간격 지속기간별 최대 강우량, 총강우량, 1-5일 선행강우량, 최대풍속 및 제주도 인근 지역에서의 태풍중심기압을 이용하였다. 피해자료의 부족을 고려하기 위해 군집화를 하였으며, 강우 관련 자료의 다중공선성을 제거하기 위하여 주성분분석 등 다변량 통계분석을 이용하여 권역별(경남, 경북, 전남, 전북)로 피해예측모형을 개발하였다. 모형에 의한 태풍피해추정치와 실측치는 최대 2.2배 정도까지 차이가 발생하였는데, 이는 강풍에 의한 피해를 추정하기 어렵고, 전국 69개 ASOS 관측소에 의한 강우자료가 지역적 강우특성을 제대로 반영하지 못하기 때문인 것으로 추정된다.

Keywords

References

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