• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.621-624
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• 2011

With the rapid growth of internet traffic, accurate and reliable prediction of internet traffic has been a key issue in network management and planning. This paper proposes an autoregressive-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (AR-GARCH) error model for forecasting internet traffic and evaluates its performance by comparing it with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) criterion. The results indicated that the seasonal AR-GARCH models outperformed the seasonal ARIMA models in terms of forecasting accuracy with respect to the RMSE criterion.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.1B
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• pp.21-27
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• 2011

When execute runoff forecasting, can not remove perfectly uncertainty of forecasting results. But, reduce uncertainty by various techniques analysis. This study applied various forecasting techniques for runoff prediction's accuracy elevation in Gongju basin. statics techniques is ESP, Period Average & Moving average, Exponential Smoothing, Winters, Auto regressive moving average process. Authoritativeness estimation with results of runoff forecasting by each techniques used MAE (Mean Absolute Error), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), RRMSE (Relative Root Mean Squared Error), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), TIC (Theil Inequality Coefficient). Result that use MAE, RMSE, RRMSE, MAPE, TIC and confirm improvement effect of runoff forecasting, ESP techniques than the others displayed the best result.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.18 no.9
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• pp.1045-1055
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• 2009

The discharge within the basin in Jeju Island was calculated by using SWAT model, which a Semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model to the important rivers. The basin of Chunmi river of the eastern region of Jeju Island, as the result of correcting as utilizing direct runoff data of 2 surveys, appeared the similar value to the existing basin average runoff rate as 22% of average direct runoff rate for the applied period. The basin of Oaedo river of the northern region showed $R^2$ of 0.93, RMSE of 14.92 and ME of 0.70 as the result of correcting as utilizing runoff data in the occurrence of 7 rainfalls. The basin of Ongpo river of the western region showed $R^2$ of 0.86, RMSE of 0.62 and ME of 0.56 as the result of correcting as utilizing runoff data except for the period of flood in $2002{\sim}2003$. Yeonoae river of the southern region showed $R^2$ of 0.85, RMSE of 0.99 and ME of 0.83 as the result of correcting as utilizing runoff data of 2003. As the result of calculating runoff for the long term about 4 basins of Jeju Island from the above results, SWAT model wholly appears the excellent results about the long-term daily runoff simulation.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.103-114
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• 2023

This study collected various data of urban roadways to analyze the effect of travel speed change, and a GRU-based short-term travel speed prediction model was developed using such big data. The baseline model and the double exponential smoothing model were selected as comparison models, and prediction errors were evaluated using the RMSE index. The model evaluation results revealed that the average RMSE of the baseline model and the double exponential smoothing model were 7.46 and 5.94, respectively. The average RMSE predicted by the GRU model was 5.08. Although there are deviations for each of the 15 links, most cases showed minimal errors in the GRU model, and the additional scatter plot analysis presented the same result. These results indicate that the prediction error can be reduced, and the model application speed can be improved when applying the GRU-based model in the process of generating travel speed information on urban roadways.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.47-63
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• 2023

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and sensor technologies are rapidly developing and being usefully utilized for spatial information-based agricultural management and smart agriculture. Until now, there have been many difficulties in obtaining production information in a timely manner for large-scale agriculture on reclaimed land. However, smart agriculture that utilizes sensors, information technology, and UAV technology and can efficiently manage a large amount of farmland with a small number of people is expected to become more common in the near future. In this study, we evaluated the productivity of forage maize grown on reclaimed land using UAV and sensor-based technologies. This study compared the plant height, vegetation cover ratio, fresh biomass, and dry biomass of maize grown on general farmland and reclaimed land in South Korea. A biomass model was constructed based on plant height, cover ratio, and volume-based biomass using UAV-based images and Farm-Map, and related estimates were obtained. The fresh biomass was estimated with a very precise model (R² =0.97, root mean square error [RMSE]=3.18 t/ha, normalized RMSE [nRMSE]=8.08%). The estimated dry biomass had a coefficient of determination of 0.86, an RMSE of 1.51 t/ha, and an nRMSE of 12.61%. The average plant height distribution for each field lot was about 0.91 m for reclaimed land and about 1.89 m for general farmland, which was analyzed to be a difference of about 48%. The average proportion of the maize fraction in each field lot was approximately 65% in reclaimed land and 94% in general farmland, showing a difference of about 29%. The average fresh biomass of each reclaimed land field lot was 10 t/ha, which was about 36% lower than that of general farmland (28.1 t/ha). The average dry biomass in each field lot was about 4.22 t/ha in reclaimed land and about 8 t/ha in general farmland, with the reclaimed land having approximately 53% of the dry biomass of the general farmland. Based on these results, UAV and sensor-based images confirmed that it is possible to accurately analyze agricultural information and crop growth conditions in a large area. It is expected that the technology and methods used in this study will be useful for implementing field-smart agriculture in large reclaimed areas.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.352-361
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• 2018

Purpose: The objective of this study was to develop a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model to estimate solar radiation using a solar module. Methods: Data for the short-circuit current of a solar module and other environmental parameters were collected for a year. For MLP learning, 14,400 combinations of input variables, learning rates, activation functions, numbers of layers, and numbers of neurons were trained. The best MLP model employed the batch backpropagation algorithm with all input variables and two hidden layers. Results: The root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of each learning cycle and its average over three repetitions were calculated. The average RMSE of the best artificial neural network model was $48.13W{\cdot}m^{-2}$. This result was better than that obtained for the regression model, for which the RMSE was $66.67W{\cdot}m^{-2}$. Conclusions: It is possible to utilize a solar module as a power source and a sensor to measure solar radiation for an agricultural sensor node.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.43-48
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• 2015

We studied on pseudo-range correction(PRC) modeling in order to improve differential GNSS(DGNSS) accuracy. The PRC is the range correction information that provides improved location accuracy using DGNSS technique. The digital correction signal is typically broadcast over ground-based transmitters. Sometimes the degradation of the positioning accuracy caused by the loss of PRC signals, radio interference, etc. To prevent the degradation, in this paper, we have designed a PRC model through polynomial curve fitting and evaluated this model. We compared two quantities, estimations of PRC using model parameters and observations from the reference station. In the case of GPS, the average is 0.1m and RMSE is 1.3m. Most of GPS satellites have a bias error of less than ${\pm}1.0m$ and a RMSE within 3.0m. In the case of GLONASS, the average and the RMSE are 0.2m and 2.6m, respectively. Most of satellites have less than ${\pm}2.0m$ for a bias error and less than 3.0m for RMSE. These results show that the estimated value calculated by the model can be used effectively to maintain the accuracy of the user's location. However;it is needed for further work relating to the big difference between the two values at low elevation.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.139-149
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• 2008

A load effect by vehicles running on a road and an increase of traffic is distinguished as a serious issue in the level of bridges' maintenance and management since it causes a quick damage of bridges. The expansion joint is the most important since it makes vehicles' traveling amicable and stress or additional load harmful to molding patterns minimized. However, it is very difficult to measure its expansion length since vehicles continue to pass on the expansion joint. Therefore, the study could see that it was possible to carry out a qualitative and quantitative maintenance and management if its expansion length is extracted with images. The study could acquire three dimensional coordinates of expansion joints with images. As the results of calculating RMSE of check point residual at 32 points in A area and at 28 points in B area, both A and B areas had very good results of RMSEsms 0.829mm~1.680mm. As the results of analyzing expansion length and immediate value extracted by images, the study analyzed that RMSE of A area was 0.64mm and RMSE of B area was 0.28. The average residual of A area was 0.60% and the average rresidual of B area was 0.27%. Therefore, it is judged that it is more scientific and efficient than the past to measure expansion length with images at the time of repairing and managing bridges in the future.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.351-368
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• 2021

For a probabilistic model with positively skewed data, a lognormal distribution is one of the key distributions that play a critical role. Several lognormal models can be found in various areas, such as medical science, engineering, and finance. In this paper, we propose a new estimator for a lognormal mean and depict the performance of the proposed estimator in terms of the relative mean squared error (RMSE) compared with Shen's estimator (Shen et al., 2006), which is considered the best estimator among the existing methods. The proposed estimator includes a tuning parameter. By finding the optimal value of the tuning parameter, we can improve the average performance of the proposed estimator over the typical range of σ². The bias reduction of the proposed estimator tends to exceed the increased variance, and it results in a smaller RMSE than Shen's estimator. A numerical study reveals that the proposed estimator has performance comparable with Shen's estimator when σ² is small and exhibits a meaningful decrease in the RMSE under moderate and large σ² values.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.365-370
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• 2017

This study analyze correlation between weekdays data and special days data of different power demand patterns, and builds a separate data set, and suggests ways to reduce power demand prediction error by using deep learning network suitable for each data set. In addition, we propose a method to improve the prediction rate by adding the environmental elements and the separating element to the meteorological element, which is a basic power demand prediction elements. The entire data predicted power demand using LSTM which is suitable for learning time series data, and the special day data predicted power demand using DNN. The experiment result show that the prediction rate is improved by adding prediction elements other than meteorological elements. The average RMSE of the entire dataset was 0.2597 for LSTM and 0.5474 for DNN, indicating that the LSTM showed a good prediction rate. The average RMSE of the special day data set was 0.2201 for DNN, indicating that the DNN had better prediction than LSTM. The MAPE of the LSTM of the whole data set was 2.74% and the MAPE of the special day was 3.07 %.