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http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2011.31.1B.021

Study of Stochastic Techniques for Runoff Forecasting Accuracy in Gongju basin  

Ahn, Jung Min (한국수자원공사 물관리센터)
Hur, Young Teck (한국수자원공사 물관리센터)
Hwang, Man Ha (한국수자원공사 수자원연구원)
Cheon, Geun Ho (한국수자원공사 물관리센터)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.31, no.1B, 2011 , pp. 21-27 More about this Journal
Abstract
When execute runoff forecasting, can not remove perfectly uncertainty of forecasting results. But, reduce uncertainty by various techniques analysis. This study applied various forecasting techniques for runoff prediction's accuracy elevation in Gongju basin. statics techniques is ESP, Period Average & Moving average, Exponential Smoothing, Winters, Auto regressive moving average process. Authoritativeness estimation with results of runoff forecasting by each techniques used MAE (Mean Absolute Error), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), RRMSE (Relative Root Mean Squared Error), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), TIC (Theil Inequality Coefficient). Result that use MAE, RMSE, RRMSE, MAPE, TIC and confirm improvement effect of runoff forecasting, ESP techniques than the others displayed the best result.
Keywords
ESP; Runoff forecast; ARMA; Time-series analysis;
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