• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.162-162
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• 2023

Climate change is a complex phenomenon having its impact on diverse sectors. Temperature and precipitation are two of the most fundamental variables used to characterize climate, and changes in these variables can have significant impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and human societies. This study evaluated the historical (1981-2010) and future (2011-2100) climatic trends in the Seti-Gandaki basin of Nepal based on 5 km resolution Multi Model Ensemble (MME) of 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-85 scenarios. For this study, ERA5 reanalysis dataset is used for historical reference dataset instead of observation dataset due to a lack of good observation data in the study area. Results show that the basin has experienced continuous warming and an increased precipitation pattern in the historical period, and this rising trend is projected to be more prominent in the future. The Seti basin hosts 13 operational hydropower projects of different sizes, with 10 more planned by the government. Consequently, the findings of this study could be leveraged to design adaptation measures for existing hydropower schemes and provide a framework for policymakers to formulate climate change policies in the region. Furthermore, the methodology employed in this research could be replicated in other parts of the country to generate precise climate projections and offer guidance to policymakers in devising sustainable development plans for sectors like irrigation and hydropower.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.243-251
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• 2018

The gridded simulation of crop growth, which would be useful for shareholders and policy makers, often requires specialized computation tasks for preparation of weather input data and operation of a given crop model. Here we developed an automated system to allow for crop growth simulation over a region using the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) model. The system consists of modules implemented using R and shell script languages. One of the modules has a functionality to create weather input files in a plain text format for each cell. Another module written in R script was developed for GIS data processing and parallel computing. The other module that launches the crop model automatically was implemented using the shell script language. As a case study, the automated system was used to determine the maximum soybean yield for a given set of management options in Illinois state in the US. The AgMERRA dataset, which is reanalysis data for agricultural models, was used to prepare weather input files during 1981 - 2005. It took 7.38 hours to create 1,859 weather input files for one year of soybean growth simulation in Illinois using a single CPU core. In contrast, the processing time decreased considerably, e.g., 35 minutes, when 16 CPU cores were used. The automated system created a map of the maturity group and the planting date that resulted in the maximum yield in a raster data format. Our results indicated that the automated system for the DSSAT model would help spatial assessments of crop yield at a regional scale.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.189-204
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• 2018

This study has developed a forest fire occurrence probability model for inaccessible areas such as North Korea and Demilitarized Zone and we have developed a real-time forest fire danger rating system that can be used in fire-related works. There are limitations on the research that it is impossible to conduct site investigation for data acquisition and verification for forest fire weather index model and system development. To solve this problem, we estimated the fire spots in the areas where access is impossible by using MODIS satellite data with scientific basis. Using the past meteorological reanalysis data(5㎞ resolution) produced by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) on the extracted fires, the meteorological characteristics of the fires were extracted and made database. The meteorological factors extracted from the forest fire ignition points in the inaccessible areas are statistically correlated with the forest fire occurrence and the weather factors and the logistic regression model that can estimate the forest fires occurrence(fires 1 and non-fores 0). And used to calculate the forest fire weather index(FWI). The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models(p<0.01) strongly depends on maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, effective humidity and average wind speed. The logistic regression model constructed in this study showed a relatively high accuracy of 66%. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in Republic of Korea(ROK) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK) for the prevention of forest fires.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.222-237
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• 2020

A heavy (93 mm hr^-1) rainfall event accompanied by lightning occurred over Gangneung in the Yeongdong region of South Korea on August 6, 2018. This study investigated the underlying mechanism for the heavy rainfall event by using COMS satellite cloud products, surface- and upper-level weather charts, ECMWF reanalysis data, and radiosonde data. The COMS satellite cloud products showed rainfall exceeding 10 mm hr^-1, with the lowest cloud-top temperature of approximately -65℃ and high cloud optical thickness of approximately 20-25. The radiosonde data showed the existence of strong vertical wind shear between the upper and lower cloud layers. Furthermore, a strong inversion in the equivalent potential temperature was observed at a pressure altitude of 700 hPa. In addition, there was a highly developed cloud layer at a height of 13 km, corresponding with the vertical analysis of the ECMWF data. This demonstrated the increased atmospheric instability induced by the vertical differences in equivalent potential temperature in the Yeongdong region. Consequently, cold, dry air was trapped within relatively warm, humid air in the upper atmosphere over the East Sea and adjacent Yeongdong region. This caused unstable atmospheric conditions that led to rapidly developing convective clouds and heavy rainfall over Gangneung.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.833-848
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• 2014

The assessment of the current and future climate change-induced potential wind energy is an important issue in the planning and operations of wind farm. Here, the authors analyze spatiotemporal characteristics and variabilities of wind energy over Korean Peninsula in the near future (2006-2040) using Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios data. In this study, National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) regional climate model HadGEM3-RA based RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios are analyzed. The comparison between ERA-interim and HadGEM3-RA during the period of 1981-2005 indicates that the historical simulation of HadGEM3-RA slightly overestimates (underestimates) the wind energy over the land (ocean). It also shows that interannual and intraseasonal variability of hindcast data is generally larger than those of reanalysis data. The investigation of RCP scenarios based future wind energy presents that future wind energy density will increase over the land and decrease over the ocean. The increase in the wind energy and its variability is particularly significant over the mountains and coastal areas, such as Jeju island in future global warming. More detailed analysis presents that the changes in synoptic conditions over East Asia in future decades can influence on the predicted wind energy abovementioned. It is also suggested that the uncertainty of the predicted future wind energy may increase because of the increase of interannual and intra-annual variability. In conclusion, our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.6B
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• pp.531-539
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• 2011

It has been widely acknowledged that climate system associated with extreme rainfall events was difficult to understand and extreme rainfall simulation in climate model was more difficult. This study developed a new model for extracting rainfall filed associated with extreme events as a way to characterize large scale climate system. Main interests are to derive location, size and direction of the rainfall field and this study developed an algorithm to extract the above characteristics from global climate data set. This study mainly utilized specific humidity and wind vectors driven by NCEP reanalysis data to define the rainfall field. Geometric first and second moments have been extensively employed in defining the rainfall field in selected zone, and an ellipsoid based model were finally introduced. The proposed geometric moments based ellipsoid model works equally well with regularly and irregularly distributed synthetic grid data. Finally, the proposed model was applied to space-time real rainfall filed. It was found that location, size and direction of the rainfall field was successfully extracted.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.23-40
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• 2016

In this study, long-term changes in means and extreme events of precipitation during summer rainy period called Changma (late June~early September) are examined based on rainfall data observed by Chukwooki during Joseon Dynasty (1777~1907) and by modern rain-gauge onward (1908~2015) in Seoul, Korea. Also, characterizations of the relevant changes in synoptic climate fields in East Asia are made by the examination of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis I data. Analyses of 239-year time series of precipitation data demonstrate that the total precipitation as well as their inter-annual variability during the entire Changma period (late June~early September) has increased in the late 20th century and onward. Notably, since the early 1990s the means and extreme events during the summer Changma period (late June~mid-July) and Changma break period (late July~early August) has significantly increased, resulting in less clear demarcations of sub-Changma periods. In this regard, comparisons of synoptic climate fields before and after the early 1990s reveal that in recent decades the subtropical high pressure has expanded in the warmer Pacific as the advection of high-latitude air masses toward East Asia was enhanced due to more active northerly wind vector around the high pressure departure core over Mongolia. Consequently, it is suggested that the enhancement of rising motions due to more active confluence of the two different air masses along the northwestern borders of the Pacific might lead to the increases of the means and extreme events of Changma precipitation in Seoul in recent decades.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2015

The present study aims to characterize the synoptic climatic patterns of winter extreme low temperature events occurred in different regions of Korea based on daily temperature data observed at 61 weather stations under the supervision of the Korea Meteorological Administation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis I data for the recent 40 years (1973~2012) period. Analyses of daily maximum and minimum temperatures below 10th percentile thresholds show that high frequencies of winter extreme low temperature events appear across the entire regions of Korea or in either the western or eastern half region divided by major mountain ridges at the 2~7 dayintervals particularly in the first half of the winter period (before mid-January). Composite analyses of surface synoptic climatic data including sea level pressure and wind vector reveal that 13 regional types of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea are closely associated with the relative location and intensity of both the Siberian high pressure and the Aleutian low pressure systems as well as major mountain ridges. Investigations of mid-troposphere (500 hPa) synoptic climatic charts demonstrate that the blocking-like upper troposphere low pressure system advecting the cold air from the Arctic toward the Korean Peninsula may provide favorable synoptic conditions for the outbreaks of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea. These results indicate that the monitoring of synoptic scale climatic systems in East Asia including the Siberian high pressure system, the Aleutian low pressure system and upper level blocking system is critical to the improvement of the predictability of winter extreme low temperature events in Korea.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.503-518
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• 2003

This study examines the relationship among temperature, wind, and sea level pressure to understand recent warming in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula. To do this, the surface air temperature, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data and sea level pressure data for the period of 40 years are analyzed. The 40-year surface air temperature data in the Antarctic Peninsula reveals relatively the larger warming trends for autumn and winter than other seasons. The variability of the surface air temperature in this region is compared with that of the regional atmospheric circulation. The surface air temperature is positively correlated with frequency of northwesterlies and negatively correlated with frequency of southeasterlies. This relation is more evident in the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula for autumn and winter. The trend analysis of wind frequency in the study area shows increasing and decreasing trends in the frequency of northwesterlies and southeasterlies, respectively, in the northwestern part of the Weddell Sea for autumn and winter. And also it is found that these winds are closely related with decreasing of sea level pressure in the southeastern region of the Antarctic Peninsula. Furthermore from the seasonal variation of sea level pressure in this area, it may be presumed that decreasing of sea level pressure in the southeastern region of the Antarctic Peninsula is related with warming in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula for autumn and winter. Therefore it can be explained that recent warming in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula is caused by positive feedback mechanism, that is, the process that warming in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula can lead to the decrease of sea level pressure in the southeastern region of the Antarctic Peninsula and these pressure decrease in turn lead to the variation of wind direction in northwestern part of Weddell Sea, again the variation of wind direction enhances the warming in the Antarctic Peninsula.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.23 no.10
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• pp.1719-1729
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• 2014

This study is carried out in order to bridge the gap to understand the relationships between South Asian and East Asian monsoon systems by comparing the summer (June-September) precipitation of Nepal and South Korea. Summer monsoon precipitation data from Nepal and South Korea during 30 years (1981-2010) are used in this research to investigate the association. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are also used to see the nature of large scale phenomena. Statistical applications are used to analyze these data. The analyzed results show that summer monsoon precipitation is higher over Nepal ($1513.98{\pm}159.29mm\;y^{-1}$) than that of South Korea ($907.80{\pm}204.71mm\;y^{-1}$) and the wettest period in both the countries is July. However, the coefficient of variation shows that amplitude of interannual variation of summer monsoon over South Korea (22.55%) is larger in comparison to that of Nepal (10.52%). Summer monsoon precipitation of Nepal is found to be significantly correlated to that of South Korea with a correlation coefficient of 0.52 (99% confidence level). Large-scale circulations are studied to further investigate the relationship between the two countries. wind and specific humidity at 850 hPa show a strong westerly from Arabian Sea to BOB and from BOB, wind moves towards Nepal in a northwestward direction during the positive rainfall years. In case of East Asia, strong northward displacement of wind can be observed from Pacific to South Korea and strong anticyclone over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. However, during the negative rainfall years, in the South Asian region we can find weak westerly from the Arabian Sea to BOB, wind is blowing in a southerly direction from Nepal and Bangladesh to BOB.