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http://dx.doi.org/10.11108/kagis.2018.21.3.189

Development of Fire Weather Index Model in Inaccessible Areas using MOD14 Fire Product and 5km-resolution Meteorological Data  

WON, Myoung-Soo (Division of Forest Ecology and Climate Change, National Institute of Forest Science)
JANG, Keun-Chang (Division of Forest Ecology and Climate Change, National Institute of Forest Science)
YOON, Suk-Hee (Division of Forest Ecology and Climate Change, National Institute of Forest Science)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies / v.21, no.3, 2018 , pp. 189-204 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study has developed a forest fire occurrence probability model for inaccessible areas such as North Korea and Demilitarized Zone and we have developed a real-time forest fire danger rating system that can be used in fire-related works. There are limitations on the research that it is impossible to conduct site investigation for data acquisition and verification for forest fire weather index model and system development. To solve this problem, we estimated the fire spots in the areas where access is impossible by using MODIS satellite data with scientific basis. Using the past meteorological reanalysis data(5㎞ resolution) produced by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) on the extracted fires, the meteorological characteristics of the fires were extracted and made database. The meteorological factors extracted from the forest fire ignition points in the inaccessible areas are statistically correlated with the forest fire occurrence and the weather factors and the logistic regression model that can estimate the forest fires occurrence(fires 1 and non-fores 0). And used to calculate the forest fire weather index(FWI). The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models(p<0.01) strongly depends on maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, effective humidity and average wind speed. The logistic regression model constructed in this study showed a relatively high accuracy of 66%. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in Republic of Korea(ROK) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK) for the prevention of forest fires.
Keywords
Forest Fire Danger Rating; Fire Weather Index; Logistic Regression; Inaccessible Areas;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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