• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.1125-1138
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• 2014

In this study, we applied an advanced non-parametric low-flow frequency analysis using boundary kernel by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios through Arc-SWAT long-term runoff model simulation at the Gwangdong storage reservoir located in Taeback, Gangwondo. The results show that drought frequency under RCPs was expected to increase due to reduced runoff during the near future, and the variation of low-flow time series was appeared greatly under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The result from drought frequency of Median flow in the near future (2030s) compared historic period, the case of 30-year low-flow frequency was increased (the RCP4.5 shows +22.4% and the RCP8.5 shows +40.4%), but in the distant future (2080s) expected increase of drought frequency due to the reduction of low-flow (under RCP4.5: -4.7% and RCP8.5: -52.9%), respectively. In case of Quantile 25% flow time series data also expected that the severe drought frequency will be increased in the distant future by reducing low-flow (the RCP4.5 shows -20.8% to -60.0% and the RCP8.5 shows -30.4% to -96.0%). This non-parametric low-flow frequency analysis results according to the RCPs scenarios have expected to consider to take advantage of as a basis data for water resources management and countermeasures of climate change in the mid-watershed over the Korean Peninsula.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.203-215
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• 1995

A continued operation of RCPs during a certain small break LOCA may increase unnecessary inventory loss from the RCS causing a severe core uncovery which might lead to a fuel failure. After TMI-2 accident, the CEOG developed RCP trip strategy called “Trip-Two/Leave-Two” (T2/L2) in response to NRC requests and incorporated it in the generic EPG for CE plants. The T2/L2 RCP trip strategy consists of tripping the first two RCPs on low RCS pressure and then tripping the remaining two RCPs if a LOCA has occurred. This analysis determines the RCP trip setpoint and demonstrates the safe operational aspects of RCP trip strategy during a small break LOCA for YGN 3&4. The trip setpoint of the first too RCPs for YGN 3&4 is calculated to be 1775 psia in pressurizer pressure based on the limiting small break LOCA with 0.15 ft$^2$ break size in the hot leg. The analysis results show that YGN 3&4 can maintain the core coolability even if the operator fails to trip the second too RCPs or trips at worst time. Also, the YGN 3&4 RCP trip strategy demonstrates that both the 10 CFR 50.46 requirements on PCT and the ANSI standards 58.8 requirements on operator action time can be satisfied with enough margin. Therefore, it is concluded that the T2/L2 RCP trip strategy with a trip setpoint of 1775 psia for YGN 3&4 can provide improved operator guidance for the RCP operation during accidents.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.139-147
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• 2019

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the linkage between Si-Jeong-Chon (municipalities of Japan) catastrophic disaster recovery-regeneration plan (DRRP) and regional comprehensive plan (RCP), each of which was made after the Great East Japan Earthquake, and to make implications on establishment of a disaster recovery plan of Korea. In order to explore the relationship between the two plans, the DRRPs and RCPs of 30 municipalities are collected and categorized according to their characteristics. The results show that DRRPs of the municipalities are not always in a consistent form and contents because regulations and guidelines on DRRP are not definite and specific. The relationship between DRRP and RCP in terms of its form and contents can be divided into 3 categories; Reflective Type (RT), Complementary Type (CT), and Substitutive Type (ST). The 22 RT plans as the majority of those DRRPs appear to reflect the development strategies of municipalities' RCPs. Both 3 CT plans and 5 ST plans seem to be integrated with RCPs in some way. The plan in CT of a municipality supplements its RCP by adding some new strategies to its recovery section and the plan in ST of a municipality appears to replace its RCP. Finally the influential factors which are considered to determine linkage type are identified as remaining time which is legally required to re-establish its RCP, the extent of damage, and socioeconomic condition changes.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.143-143
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• 2021

Climate change indicators, mainly frequent drought which has happened since the drought of 1994, 1995, and 2012 causing the devastating effect to the agricultural sector, and could be more disruptive given the context of climate change indicators by increasing the temperature and more variable and extreme precipitation. Changes in frequency, duration, and severity of droughts will have enormous impacts on agriculture production and water management. Since both the possibility of drought manifestation and substantial yield losses, we are propositioning an integrated method for evaluating past and future agriculture drought hazards that depend on models' simulations in the Hung-up watershed. to discuss the question of how climate change might influence the impact of extreme agriculture drought by assessing the potential changes in temporal trends of agriculture drought. we will calculate the temporal trends of future drought through drought indices Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Palmer drought severity index by using observed data of (1991-2020) from Wonju meteorological station and projected climate change scenarios (2021-2100) of the Representative Concentration Pathways models (RCPs). expected results confirmed the frequency of extreme agricultural drought in the future projected to increase under all studied RCPs. at present 100 years drought is anticipated to happen since the result showing under RCP2.6 will occur every 24 years, RCP4.5 every 17 years, and RCPs8.5 every 7 years, and it would be double in the largest warming scenarios. On another side, the result shows unsupportable water management, could cause devastating consequences in both food production and water supply in extreme events. Because significant increases in the drought magnitude and severity like to be initiate at different time scales for each drought indicator. Based on the expected result that the evaluating the impacts of extreme agricultural droughts and recession could be used for the development of proactive drought risk management, policies for future water balance, prioritize sustainable strengthening and mitigation strategies.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.7
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• pp.3499-3503
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• 2016

Our recent studies conducted in South America have shown that mycotoxin contamination of red chili peppers (RCPs) may be associated with an increased risk of gallbladder cancer (GBC). Whether this relationship exists in India, a country with a high incidence of GBC and high consumption of RCPs, is unclear. We therefore measured concentrations of aflatoxins (AFs) and ochratoxin A (OTA) in RCPs from areas of low, medium, and high incidence of GBC in India, and compared these concentrations with GBC incidence in each area. Twenty-one RCP samples were collected from nine cities (eight from a low-incidence area, five from a medium-incidence area, and eight from a high-incidence area). Concentrations of AFs and OTA were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography. No significant differences in mean concentrations of AFs and OTA were found in the three areas. AFB1 levels in the low-incidence area ($10.81{\mu}g/kg$) and high-incidence area ($12.00{\mu}g/kg$) were more than 2.2 and 2.4 times higher compared with the maximum permitted level of AFB1 in spices ($5.0{\mu}g/kg$) set by the Commission of the European Communities, or that ($4.4{\mu}g/kg$) obtained in our previous study in Chile. Our results show that the mean concentrations of mycotoxins in RCPs are similar among the three areas in India with different incidences of GBC. Further studies with human subjects are needed to evaluate any association between AFB1 and GBC.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2022

Global warming has a major impact on the Earth's precipitation and temperature fluctuations, and significantly affects the habitats and biodiversity of many species. Although the number of alien plants newly introduced in South Korea has recently increased due to the increasing frequency of international exchanges and climate change, studies on how climate change affects the distribution of these alien plants are lacking. This study predicts changes in the distribution of suitable habitats according to RCPs climate change scenarios using the current distribution of the invasive alien plant Conyza sumatrensis and bioclimatic variables. C. sumatrensis has a limited distribution in the southern part of South Korea. Isothermality (bio03), the max temperature of the warmest month (bio05), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio09) were found to influence the distribution of C. sumatrensis. In the future, the suitable habitat for C. sumatrensis is projected to increase under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Changes in the distribution of alien plants can have a significant impact on the survival of native plants and cause ecosystem disturbance. Therefore, studies on changing distribution of invasive species according to climate change scenarios can provide useful information required to plan conservation strategies and restoration plans for various ecosystems.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2016.09a
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• pp.190-196
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• 2016

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.151-151
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• 2018

The present study is aimed to quantifying the uncertainty in the general circulation model (GCM) selection and its impacts on hydrology studies in the basins. For this reason, 13 GCMs was selected among the 26 GCM models of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenarios. Then, the climate data and hydrologic data with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the best model (INMCM4) and worst model (HadGEM2-AO) were compared to understand the uncertainty associated with GCM models. In order to project the runoff, the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was driven to simulate daily river discharge by using daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature as inputs of this model. For simulating the discharge, the model has been calibrated and validated for daily data. Root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were applied as evaluation criteria. Then parameters of the model were applied for the periods 2011-2040, and 2070-2099 to project the future discharge the five large basins of South Korea. Then, uncertainty caused by projected temperature, precipitation and runoff changes were compared in seasonal and annual time scale for two future periods and RCPs compared to the reference period (1976-2005). The findings of this study indicated that more caution will be needed for selecting the GCMs and using the results of the climate change analysis.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.85-97
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• 2015

This study is to investigate future changes in carbon cycle using the HadGEM2-Carbon Cycle simulations driven by $CO_2$ emissions. For experiment, global carbon budget is integrated from the two (8.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the period of 1860~2100 by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (Had-GEM2-CC). From 1985 to 2005, total cumulative $CO_2$ amount of anthropogenic emission prescribed as 156 GtC. The amount matches to the observed estimates (CDIAC) over the same period (136 GtC). As $CO_2$ emissions into the atmosphere increase, the similar increasing tendency is found in the simulated atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and temperature. Atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration in the simulation is projected to be 430 ppm for RCP 2.6 at the end of the twenty-first century and as high as 931 ppm for RCP 8.5. Simulated global mean temperature is expected to rise by $1.6^{\circ}C$ and $3.5^{\circ}C$ for RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. Land and ocean carbon uptakes also increase in proportion to the $CO_2$ emissions of RCPs. The fractions of the amount of $CO_2$ stored in atmosphere, land, and ocean are different in RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Further study is needed for reducing the simulation uncertainty based on multiple model simulations.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.427-437
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• 2019

Background: Climate change is believed to be continuously affecting ticks by influencing their habitat suitability. However, we attempted to model the climate change-induced impacts on future genus Rhipicephalus distribution considering the major environmental factors that would influence the tick. Therefore, 50 tick occuance points were taken to model the potential distribution using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) software and 19 climatic variables, taking into account the ability for future climatic change under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used. Results: MaxEnt model performance was tested and found with the AUC value of 0.99 which indicates excellent goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. Current models predict increased temperatures, both in the mid and end terms together with possible changes of other climatic factors like precipitation which may lead to higher tick-borne disease risks associated with expansion of the range of the targeted tick distribution. Distribution maps were constructed for the current, 2050, and 2070 for the two greenhouse gas scenarios and the most dramatic scenario; RCP 8.5 produced the highest increase probable distribution range. Conclusions: The future potential distribution of the genus Rhipicephalus show potential expansion to the new areas due to the future climatic suitability increase. These results indicate that the genus population of the targeted tick could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking; increased incidence of tick-borne diseases poses further risk which can affect cattle production and productivity, thereby affecting the livelihood of smallholding farmers. Therefore, it is recommended to implement climate change adaptation practices to minimize the impacts.