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http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.4.1125

Non-Parametric Low-Flow Frequency Analysis Using RCPs Scenario Data : A Case Study of the Gwangdong Storage Reservoir, Korea  

Yoon, Sun Kwon (APEC Climate Center)
Cho, Jae Pil (APEC Climate Center)
Moon, Young Il (University of Seoul)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.34, no.4, 2014 , pp. 1125-1138 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, we applied an advanced non-parametric low-flow frequency analysis using boundary kernel by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios through Arc-SWAT long-term runoff model simulation at the Gwangdong storage reservoir located in Taeback, Gangwondo. The results show that drought frequency under RCPs was expected to increase due to reduced runoff during the near future, and the variation of low-flow time series was appeared greatly under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The result from drought frequency of Median flow in the near future (2030s) compared historic period, the case of 30-year low-flow frequency was increased (the RCP4.5 shows +22.4% and the RCP8.5 shows +40.4%), but in the distant future (2080s) expected increase of drought frequency due to the reduction of low-flow (under RCP4.5: -4.7% and RCP8.5: -52.9%), respectively. In case of Quantile 25% flow time series data also expected that the severe drought frequency will be increased in the distant future by reducing low-flow (the RCP4.5 shows -20.8% to -60.0% and the RCP8.5 shows -30.4% to -96.0%). This non-parametric low-flow frequency analysis results according to the RCPs scenarios have expected to consider to take advantage of as a basis data for water resources management and countermeasures of climate change in the mid-watershed over the Korean Peninsula.
Keywords
RCPs; Boundary kernel function; Arc-SWAT; Low-flow frequency analysis; Gwangdong storage reservoir;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 11  (Citation Analysis)
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