• Title/Summary/Keyword: RCP climate scenario

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Future Inundation Characteristics Analysis for the Cheongmi Stream Watershed Considering Non-stationarity of Precipitation (강우의 비정상성을 고려한 청미천 유역의 미래 침수특성 분석)

  • Ryu, Jeong Hoon;Kang, Moon Seong;Jun, Sang Min;Park, Jihoon;Lee, Kyeong-Do
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.81-96
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    • 2017
  • Along with climate change, it is reported that the scale and the frequency of extreme climate events (e.g. heavy rain, typhoon, etc.) show unstable tendency of increase. In case of Korea, also, the frequency of heavy rainfall shows increasing tendency, thus causing natural disaster damage in downtown and agricultural areas by rainfall that exceeds the design criteria of hydraulic structures. In order to minimize natural disaster damage, it is necessary to analyze how extreme precipitation event changes under climate change. Therefore a new design criteria based on non-stationarity frequency analysis is needed to consider a tendency of future extreme precipitation event and to prepare countermeasures to climate change. And a quantitative and objective characteristic analysis could be a key to preparing countermeasures to climate change impact. In this study, non-stationarity frequency analysis was performed and inundation risk indices developed by 4 inundation characteristics (e.g. inundation area, inundation depth, inundation duration, and inundation radius) were assessed. The study results showed that future probable rainfall could exceed the existing design criteria of hydraulic structures (rivers of state: 100yr-200yr, river banks: 50yr-100yr) reaching over 500yr frequency probable rainfall of the past. Inundation characteristics showed higher value in the future compared to the past, especially in sections with tributary stream inflow. Also, the inundation risk indices were estimated as 0.14 for the past period of 1973-2015, and 0.25, 0.29, 1.27 for the future period of 2016-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, respectively. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to analyze future inundation damage and to establish management solutions for rivers with inundation risks.

Yield, Nitrogen Use Efficiency and N Uptake Response of Paddy Rice Under Elevated CO2 & Temperature (CO2 및 온도 상승 시 벼의 수량, 질소 이용 효율 및 질소 흡수 반응)

  • Hyeonsoo Jang;Wan-Gyu Sang;Youn-Ho Lee;Pyeong Shin;Jin-hee Ryu;Hee-woo Lee;Dae-wook Kim;Jong-tag Youn;Ji-Won Han
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.346-358
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    • 2023
  • Due to the acceleration of climate change or global warming, it is important to predict rice productivity in the future and investigate physiological changes in rice plants. The research aimed to explore how rice adapts to climate change by examining the response of nitrogen absorption and nitrogen use efficiency in rice under elevated levels of carbon dioxide and temperature, utilizing the SPAR system for analysis. The temperature increased by +4.7 ℃ in comparison to the period from 2001 to 2010, while the carbon dioxide concentration was held steady at 800 ppm, aligning with South Korea's late 21st-century RCP8.5 scenario. Nitrogen was applied as fertilizer at rates of 0, 9, and 18 kg 10a-1, respectively. Under conditions of climate change, there was an 81% increase in the number of panicles compared to the present situation. However, grain weight decreased by 38% as a result of reduction in the grain filling rate. BNUE, indicative of the nitrogen use efficiency in plant biomass, exhibited a high value under climate change conditions. However, both NUEg and ANUE, associated with grain production, experienced a notable and significant decrease. In comparison to the current conditions, nitrogen uptake in leaves and stems increased by 100% and 151%, respectively. However, there was a 25% decrease in nitrogen uptake in the panicle. Likewise, the nitrogen content and NDFF (Nitrogen Derived from Fertilizer) in the sink organs, namely leaves and roots, were elevated in comparison to current levels. Therefore, it is imperative to ensure resources by mitigating the decrease in ripening rates under climate change conditions. Moreover, there seems to be a requirement for follow-up research to enhance the flow of photosynthetic products under climate change conditions.

A Study on derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curve through a non-stationary frequency analysis (비정상성 가뭄빈도 해석 기법에 따른 가뭄 심도-지속기간-재현기간 곡선 유도에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Park, Seo-Yeon;Jang, Ho-Won;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.

Suggestion and Evaluation for Prediction Method of Landslide Occurrence using SWAT Model and Climate Change Data: Case Study of Jungsan-ri Region in Mt. Jiri National Park (SWAT model과 기후변화 자료를 이용한 산사태 예측 기법 제안과 평가: 지리산 국립공원 중산리 일대 사례연구)

  • Kim, Jisu;Kim, Minseok;Cho, Youngchan;Oh, Hyunjoo;Lee, Choonoh
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.106-117
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R2 was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R2 was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.

Generation of Interpolated Precipitation Data using ArcGIS Model Builder in Not Covered Area of Climate Change Scenario (ArcGIS Model Builder를 이용한 기후변화시나리오 강수누락지역의 보간강수량 생성)

  • Jang, Dong Woo;Park, Hyo Seon;Jung, Ji Seong;Cho, Sung Yoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.518-518
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    • 2015
  • 이 연구에서는 ESRI사의 ArcGIS 프로그램을 이용하여, 한반도 남한지역 중 기후변화시나리오에 의한 강수량이 제공되지 않는 해안선지역에 대해 기후변화시나리오를 이용하여 장래 강수량을 생성할 수 있는 모형을 개발하였다. 기상청에서 제공하는 기후변화 시나리오에 의한 장래강수데이터의 경우 복잡한 해안선지역에 대해 장래 강수데이터를 제공하고 있지 않기 때문에 최근의 지형도를 적용하여 기상청에서 제공하지 않는 지역에 대해 보완격자를 생성하고, 공간보간 기법을 이용하여 이를 해결할 수 있다. 1km 격자단위의 강수데이터를 생성하기 위하여 GIS내에 여러 툴(tools)의 기능을 단계적으로 모형화하여 순서화된 작업을 자동적으로 수행할 수 있는 model builder를 사용하였다. 데이터 변환작업을 위한 전처리, 데이터 보간 추출 기능과 공간보간기법을 적용하여 기후변화 시나리오가 적용된 데이터누락지역에서의 장래 강수예측데이터를 생성할 수 있도록 하였다. 기상청에서 제공하는 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 이용하였고, 일부 해안선과 섬 지역에 대해 장래강수량을 생성할 수 있는 보간기법이 적용된 모형으로 한반도 남한지역 중 강수자료가 제공되지 않는 총 4,186개의 격자에 대해 적합한 공간보간기법을 선택하여, 일단위 및 월단위 강수자료를 생산할 수 있도록 하였다. 기상청에서 제공하는 강수데이터의 경우 'ASCII' 파일 형식으로 기후변화 데이터를 제공하기 때문에 사용자가 별도의 프로그램을 이용하여 강수예측자료를 얻어야 하는 문제가 있다. 강수예측자료를 텍스트파일 형태로 사용자가 원하는 좌표를 선택 한 후 데이터를 추출할 수 있도록 격자화하여 저장되도록 하였다.

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Effects of high temperature on the flowering & pod setting and rain in the seed elongation stage on the soybean growth

  • Han, Won Young;Park, Hyeon Jin;Jeon, Weon Tai;Ryu, Jong Soo;Bae, Jin Woo;Park, Jin Ki;Kwak, Kang Su;Baek, In Youl;Kang, Hang Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2017.06a
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    • pp.326-326
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    • 2017
  • Climate warming is the issue on the global scale. Soybean can be seriously damaged when high temperature occurs during a reproductive stage such as the flowering and pod-setting period according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (2021~2100) 8.5 scenarios. The weather in 2016 was very different from other years (average for 30 years from 1980 to 2010) ; the highest temperature was $33.7^{\circ}C$ which was higher $3.29^{\circ}C$ than average temperature from last 30 years and average rainfall was 26.5 mm, lower 140.9 mm than average rainfalls from other years. Especially, the highest temperature during soybean flow-ering and pod setting stage was $26.8^{\circ}C$ which was higher $0.1^{\circ}C$ and rainfall was 172.2 mm, higher 47.8 mm than other years from the first to the 20th in the October at soybean seed elongation stage. Soybean leaves were turned upside down by the drought stress during the flowering and pod-setting stage. The numbe-r of pods and seeds per unit area decreased 11.0% and 30.3% compared with the previous year, respectively. The ripening period was prolonged by 21 days because of high temperature and soil moisture contents due to the continual rainmade increase of the seed weight up to 15.6% and the yield decreased 7.1% compared to the previous year.

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Groundwater Recharge Evaluation on Yangok-ri Area of Hongseong Using a Distributed Hydrologic Model (VELAS) (분포형 수문모형(VELAS)을 이용한 홍성 양곡리 일대 지하수 함양량 평가)

  • Ha, Kyoochul;Park, Changhui;Kim, Sunghyun;Shin, Esther;Lee, Eunhee
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.161-176
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    • 2021
  • In this study, one of the distributed hydrologic models, VELAS, was used to analyze the variation of hydrologic elements based on water balance analysis to evaluate the groundwater recharge in more detail than the annual time scale for the past and future. The study area is located in Yanggok-ri, Seobu-myeon, Hongseong-gun, Chungnam-do, which is very vulnerable to drought. To implement the VELAS model, spatial characteristic data such as digital elevation model (DEM), vegetation, and slope were established, and GIS data were constructed through spatial interpolation on the daily air temperature, precipitation, average wind speed, and relative humidity of the Korea Meteorological Stations. The results of the analysis showed that annual precipitation was 799.1-1750.8 mm, average 1210.7 mm, groundwater recharge of 28.8-492.9 mm, and average 196.9 mm over the past 18 years from 2001 to 2018 in the study area. Annual groundwater recharge rate compared to annual precipitation was from 3.6 to 28.2% with a very large variation and average 14.9%. By the climate change RCP 8.5 scenario, the annual precipitation from 2019 to 2100 was 572.8-1996.5 mm (average 1078.4 mm) and groundwater recharge of 26.7-432.5 mm (average precipitation 16.2%). The annual groundwater recharge rates in the future were projected from 2.8% to 45.1%, 18.2% on average. The components that make up the water balance were well correlated with precipitation, especially in the annual data rather than the daily data. However, the amount of evapotranspiration seems to be more affected by other climatic factors such as temperature. Groundwater recharge in more detailed time scale rather than annual scale is expected to provide basic data that can be used for groundwater development and management if precipitation are severely varied by time, such as droughts or floods.

Prediction of Species Distribution Changes for Key Fish Species in Fishing Activity Protected Areas in Korea (국내 어업활동보호구역 주요 어종의 종분포 변화 예측)

  • Hyeong Ju Seok;Chang Hun Lee;Choul-Hee Hwang;Young Ryun Kim;Daesun Kim;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.802-811
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    • 2023
  • Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

On Utilization of Inactive Storage in Dam during Drought Period (가뭄 극복을 위한 댐의 비활용용량 활용 방안 연구)

  • Joo, Hongjun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Bae, Younghye;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.353-362
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest a structure plan for improving the utilization of inactive storage in the dam for overcoming the drought. Inactive storage in the dam is composed of the emergency storage and dead storage. The emergency storage can be used for the case of emergency such as drought. But, in general, the dead storage for sedimentation is not used even for the emergency. Therefore, this study considers the part of dead storage that the sedimentation is not progressed yet can be used during the severe drought period and is called "drought storage in a dam". The accurate Sediment Level(SL) analysis for the computation of the drought storage should be performed and so the present and future SL in the dam reservoir is estimated using SED-2D linked with RMA-2 model of SMS. After the consideration of additionally available storage capacity based on the estimated SL, the drought storage is finally determined. Present data based on historical data, future predicted future climate factors by Representative Concentrarion Pathways(RCP) 8.5 scenario. Then, using the TANK model, dam inflows were determined, and future period such as SL and drought storage were suggested. As the results, we have found that the available drought storage will be reduced in the future when we compare the present drought storage with the future one. This is due to a increase variability of climate change. Therefore, we should take the necessary study for the increase of available drought storage in the future.

Effects of Drought Stress and Nitrogen Fertilization on Growth and Physiological Characteristics of Pinus densiflora Seedlings Under Elevated Temperature and CO2 Concentration (대기 중 온도 및 CO2 농도 조절에 따른 건조 스트레스와 질소 시비가 소나무의 생장 및 생리적 특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Song, Wookyung;Lee, Bora;Cho, Nanghyun;Jung, Sungcheol;Kim, Eun-Sook;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 2020
  • Pinus densiflora is the most widely distributed tree species in South Korea. Its ecological and socio-cultural attributes makes it one of the most important tree species in S. Korea. In recent times however, the distribution of P. densiflora has been affected by dieback. This phenomenon has largely been attributed to climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the responses of growth and physiology of P. densiflora to drought and nitrogen fertiliz ation according to the RCP 8.5 scenario. A Temperature Gradient Chamber (TGC) and CO2. Temperature Gradient Chamber (CTGC) were used to simulate climate change conditions. The treatments were established with temperature (control versus +3 and +5℃; aCeT) and CO2 (control: aCaT versus x1.6 and x2.2; eCeT), watering(control versus drought), fertilization(control versus fertilized). Net photosynthesis (Pn), stomatal conductance (gs), biomass and relative soil volumetric water content (VWC) were measured to examine physiological responses and growth. Relative soil VWC in aCeT significantly decreased after the onset of drought. Pn and gs in both aCeT and eCeT with fertiliz ation were high before drought but decreased rapidly after 7 days under drought because nitrogen fertilization effect did not last long. The fastest mortality was 46 days in aCeT and the longest survival was 56 days in eCeT after the onset of drought. Total and partial biomass (leaf, stem and root) in both aCeT and eCeT with fertiliz ation were significantly high, but significantly low in aCeT. The results of the study are helpful in addressing P. densiflora vulnerability to climate change by highlighting physiological responses related to carbon allocation under differing simulated environmental stressors.