• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.113-122
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• 2015

This study aims to evaluate future stream flow by the operation of agricultural reservoir group at the upper stream of the Miho River. Four agricultural reservoirs with storage capacities greater than one million cubic meters within the watershed were selected, and the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario was applied to simulate reservoir water storage and stream flow assuming that there are no changes in greenhouse gas reduction. Reservoir operation scenarios were classified into four types depending on the supply of instream flow, and the water supply reliability of each reservoir in terms of water supply under different reservoir operation scenarios was analyzed. In addition, flow duration at the watershed outlet was evaluated. The results showed that the overall run-off ratio of the upper stream watershed of the Miho River will decrease in the future. The future water supply reliability of the reservoirs decreased even when they did not supply instream flow during their operation. It would also be difficult to supply instream flow during non-irrigation periods or throughout the year (January-December); however, operating the reservoir based on the operating rule curve should improve the water supply reliability. In particular, when instream flow was not supplied, high flow increased, and when it was supplied, abundant flow, ordinary flow, and low flow increased. Drought flow increased when instream flow was supplied throughout the year. Therefore, the operation of the agricultural reservoirs in accordance with the operating rule curve is expected to increase stream flow by controlling the water supply to cope with climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.9
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• pp.647-655
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• 2019

Although problems such as river management and flood control have occurred continuously in the Imjin and Bukhan river basin, which are shared by South and North Korea, efforts to manage the basin have not been carried out consistently due to limited cooperation. As the magnitude and frequency of hydrologic phenomena are changing due to global climate change, it is necessary to prepare countermeasures for the rainfall variation in the shared river basin area. Therefore, this study was aimed to project future changes in extreme precipitation in South-North Korea shared river basin by applying 13 Global Climate Models (GCM). Results showed that the probability rainfall compared to the reference period (1981-2005) of the shared river basin increased in the future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the rainfall frequency over the 20-year return period was increased in all periods except for the future periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. The extreme precipitation in the shared river basin has increased both in magnitude and frequency, and it is expected that the region will have a significant impact from climate change.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.143-156
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• 2018

Evapotranspiration is a key element in designing and operating agricultural hydraulic structures. The profound effect of climate change to local agro-hydrological systems makes it inevitable to study the potential variability in evapotranspiration rate in order to develop policies on future agricultural water management as well as to evaluate changes in agricultural environment. The APEX-Paddy model was used to simulate local evapotranspiration responses to climate change scenarios. Nine Global Climate Models(GCMs) downscaled using a non-parametric quantile mapping method and a Multi?Model Ensemble method(MME) were used for an uncertainty analysis in the climate scenarios. Results indicate that APEX-Paddy and the downscaled 9 GCMs reproduce evapotranspiration accurately for historical period(1976~2005). For future periods, simulated evapotranspiration rate under the RCP 4.5 scenario showed increasing trends by -1.31%, 2.21% and 4.32% for 2025s(2011~2040), 2055s(2041~2070) and 2085s(2071~2100), respectively, compared with historical(441.6 mm). Similar trends were found under the RCP 8.5 scenario with the rates of increase by 0.00%, 4.67%, and 7.41% for the near?term, mid?term, and long?term periods. Monthly evapotranspiration was predicted to be the highest in August, July was the month having a strong upward trend while. September and October were the months showing downward trends in evapotranspiration are mainly resulted from the shortening of the growth period of paddy rice due to temperature increase and stomatal closer as ambient $CO_2$ concentration increases in the future.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.168-172
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• 2014

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2019.08a
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• pp.281-282
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• 2019

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1091-1103
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• 2018

Having knowledge regarding to which region is prone to drought or flood is a crucial issue in water resources planning and management. This could be more challenging when the occurrence of these hazards affected by climate change. In this study the future streamflow during the wet season (July to September) and dry season (October to March) for the twenty first century of South Korea was investigated. This study used the statistics of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of one global climate model (i.e., INMCM4) with 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios as inputs for The Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) model. The PRMS model was tested for the historical periods (1966-2016) and then the parameters of model were used to project the future changes of 5 large River basins in Korea for three future periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s) compared to the reference period (1976-2005). Then, the different responses in climate and streamflow projection during these two seasons (wet and dry) was investigated. The results showed that under INMCM4 scenario, the occurrence of drought in dry season is projected to be stronger in 2025s than 2055s from decreasing -7.23% (-7.06%) in 2025s to -3.81% (-0.71%) in 2055s for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Regarding to the far future (2085s), for RCP 4.5 is projected to increase streamflow in the northern part, and decrease streamflow in the southern part (-3.24%), however under RCP8.5 almost all basins are vulnerable to drought, especially in the southern part (-16.51%). Also, during the wet season both increasing (Almost in northern and western part) and decreasing (almost in the southern part) in streamflow relative to the reference period are projected for all periods and RCPs under INMCM4 scenario.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.545-556
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• 2015

This study is to project the future snowfall and to assess heavy snowfall vulnerable area in South Korea using ground measured snowfall data and RCP climate change scenarios. To identify the present spatio-temporal heavy snowfall distribution pattern of South Korea, the 40 years (1971~2010) snowfall data from 92 weather stations were used. The heavy snowfall days above 20 cm and areas has increased especially since 2000. The future snowfall was projected by HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using the bias-corrected temperature and snow-water equivalent precipitation of each weather station. The maximum snowfall in baseline period (1984~2013) was 122 cm and the future maximum snow depth was projected 186.1 cm, 172.5 mm and 172.5 cm in 2020s (2011~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2099) for RCP 4.5 scenario, and 254.4 cm, 161.6 cm and 194.8 cm for RCP 8.5 scenario respectively. To analyze the future heavy snowfall vulnerable area, the present snow load design criteria for greenhouse (cm), cattleshed ($kg/m^2$), and building structure ($kN/m^2$) of each administrative district was applied. The 3 facilities located in present heavy snowfall areas were about two times vulnerable in the future and the areas were also extended.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.25-35
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• 2018

This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.77-87
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• 2014

The impacts of climate change on upland crops is great significance for water resource planning, estimating crop water demand and irrigation scheduling. The objective of this study is to predict upland crop evapotranspiration, effective rainfall and net irrigation requirement for upland under climate change, and changes in the temporal trends in South Korea. The changes in consumptive use and net irrigation requirement in the six upland crops, such as Soybeans, Maize, Potatoes, Red Peppers, Chinese Cabbage (spring and fall) were determined based on the soil moisture model using historical meteorological data and climate change data from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results of this study showed that the average annual upland crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirement during the growing period for upland crops would increase persistently in the future, and were projected to increase more in RCP 8.5 than those in RCP 4.5 scenario, while effective rainfall decreased. This study is significant, as it provides baseline information on future plan of water resources management for upland crops related to climate variability and change.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.475-486
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• 2020

Climate change scenarios are the basis of research to cope with climate change, and consist of large-scale spatio-temporal data. From the data point of view, one scenario has a large capacity of about 83 gigabytes or more, and the data format is semi-structured, making it difficult to utilize the data through means such as search, extraction, archiving and analysis. In this study, a tool for analyzing extreme climate events based on spatial information is developed to improve the usability of large-scale, multi-period climate change scenarios. In addition, a pilot analysis is conducted on the time and space in which the heavy rain thresholds that occurred in the past can occur in the future, by applying the developed tool to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, the days with a cumulative rainfall of more than 587.6 mm over three days would account for about 76 days in the 2080s, and localized heavy rains would occur. The developed analysis tool was designed to facilitate the entire process from the initial setting through to deriving analysis results on a single platform, and enabled the results of the analysis to be implemented in various formats without using specific commercial software: web document format (HTML), image (PNG), climate change scenario (ESR), statistics (XLS). Therefore, the utilization of this analysis tool is considered to be useful for determining future prospects for climate change or vulnerability assessment, etc., and it is expected to be used to develop an analysis tool for climate change scenarios based on climate change reports to be presented in the future.