Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2018.28.1.025

Future Sea Level Projections over the Seas Around Korea from CMIP5 Simulations  

Heo, Tae-Kyung (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
Kim, Youngmi (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
Boo, Kyung-On (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
Byun, Young-Hwa (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
Cho, Chunho (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
Publication Information
Atmosphere / v.28, no.1, 2018 , pp. 25-35 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.
Keywords
Sea surface height; CSIRO; Korea; SLR;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Church, J. A., N. J. White, R. Coleman, K. Lambeck, and J. X. Mitrovica, 2004: Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period. J. Climate, 17, 2609-2625, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2609:EOTRDO>2.0.CO;2.   DOI
2 Church, J. A., and Coauthors, 2013: Sea Level Change. In T. F. Stocker et al. Eds., Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 1137-1216.
3 Fadil, A., L. Sichoix, J.-P. Barriot, P. Ortega, and P. Willis, 2011: Evidence for a slow subsidence of the Tahiti Island from GPS, DORIS, and combined satellite altimetry and tide gauge sea level records. C. R. Geosci., 343, 331-341, doi:10.1016/j.crte.2011.02.002.   DOI
4 Gordon, A. L., and C. F. Giulivi, 2004: Pacific decadal oscillation and sea level in the Japan/East sea. Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 51, 653-663, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2004.02.005.   DOI
5 Ha, K.-J., G.-Y. Jeong, S.-R. Jang, and K.-Y. Kim, 2006: Variation of the sea surface height around the Korean peninsula with the use of multi-satellite data (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS, Envisat) and its association with sea surface temperature. Kor. J. Remote Sens., 22, 519-531 (in Korean with English abstract).
6 Hamlington, B. D., R. R. Leben, R. S. Nerem, W. Han, and K.-Y. Kim 2011: Reconstructing sea level using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions. J. Geophys. Res., 116, C12015, doi:10.1029/2011JC007529.   DOI
7 Huang, C., and F. Qiao, 2015: Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models. Acta Oceanol. Sin., 34, 31-41, doi:10.1007/s13131-015-0631-x.
8 IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Solomon, S. et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1009 pp.
9 IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Stocker, T. F. et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1552 pp.
10 Jung, T. S., 2014: Change of mean sea level due to coastal development and climate change in the western coast of Korean peninsula. J. Korean Soc. Coast Ocean Eng., 26, 120-130, doi:10.9765/KSCOE.2014.26.3.120 (in Korean with English abstract).   DOI
11 Kang, S. K., J. Y. Cherniawsky, M. G. G. Foreman, H. S. Min, C.-H. Kim, and H.-W. Kang, 2005: Patterns of recent sea level rise in the East/Japan Sea from satellite altimetry and in situ data. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 110, C07002, doi:10.1029/2004JC002565.
12 Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, W. D. Collins, J. M. Arblaster, A. Hu, L. E. Buja, W. G. Strand, and H. Teng, 2005: How much more global warming and sea level rise?. Science, 307, 1769-1772, doi:10.1126/science.1106663.   DOI
13 Levitus, S., J. Antonov, and T. Boyer, 2005: Warming of the world ocean, 1955-2003. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02604, doi:10.1029/2004GL021592.
14 Little, C. M., R. M. Horton, R. E. Kopp, M. Oppenheimer, and S. Yip, 2015: Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 sea level projections. J. climate, 28, 838-852, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1.   DOI
15 Lyu, K., X. Zhang, J. A. Church, A. B. A. Slagen, and J. Hu, 2014: Time of emergence for regional sea-level change. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 1006-1010, doi:10.1038/nclimate2397.   DOI
16 Nicholls, R. J., and A. Cazenave, 2010: Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science, 328, 1517-1520, doi:10.1126/science.1185782.   DOI
17 Slangen, A. B. A., M. Carson, C. A. Katsman, R. S. W. van de Wal, A. Köhl, L. L. A. Vermeersen, and D. Stammer, 2014: Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes. Climatic Change, 124, 317-332, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9.   DOI
18 White, N. J., J. A. Church, and J. M. Gregory, 2005: Coastal and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L01601, doi:10.1029/2004GL021391.
19 Yin, J., M. E. Schlesinger, and R. J. Stouffer, 2009: Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the Unites States. Nat. Geosci., 2. 262-266, doi:10.1038/NGEO462.   DOI
20 Yoon, J. J., and S. I. Kim, 2012: Analysis of long period sea level variation on tidal station around the Korea peninsula. J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig., 12, 299-305, doi:10.9798/KOSHAM.2012.12.3.299 (in Korean with English abstract).   DOI