Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2015.35.3.0545

Projection of Future Snowfall and Assessment of Heavy Snowfall Vulnerable Area Using RCP Climate Change Scenarios  

Ahn, So Ra (Konkuk University)
Lee, Jun Woo (National Disaster Management Institute)
Kim, Seong Joon (Konkuk University)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.35, no.3, 2015 , pp. 545-556 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study is to project the future snowfall and to assess heavy snowfall vulnerable area in South Korea using ground measured snowfall data and RCP climate change scenarios. To identify the present spatio-temporal heavy snowfall distribution pattern of South Korea, the 40 years (1971~2010) snowfall data from 92 weather stations were used. The heavy snowfall days above 20 cm and areas has increased especially since 2000. The future snowfall was projected by HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using the bias-corrected temperature and snow-water equivalent precipitation of each weather station. The maximum snowfall in baseline period (1984~2013) was 122 cm and the future maximum snow depth was projected 186.1 cm, 172.5 mm and 172.5 cm in 2020s (2011~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2099) for RCP 4.5 scenario, and 254.4 cm, 161.6 cm and 194.8 cm for RCP 8.5 scenario respectively. To analyze the future heavy snowfall vulnerable area, the present snow load design criteria for greenhouse (cm), cattleshed ($kg/m^2$), and building structure ($kN/m^2$) of each administrative district was applied. The 3 facilities located in present heavy snowfall areas were about two times vulnerable in the future and the areas were also extended.
Keywords
Climate change; Future snowfall; Heavy snowfall; Vulnerable area; Snow load;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Ahn, S. R., Shin, H. J. and Kim, S. J. (2015). "Extraction of heavy snowfall vulnerable area for 3 representative facilities using GIS and remote sensing technique." Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 1-12 (in Korean).   DOI
2 Frei, A., Robinson, D. A. and Hughes, M. G. (1999). "Northern american snow extent: 1900-1994." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 19, pp. 1517-1534.   DOI
3 Han, W. S. (2011). "Heavy Snowfall and political response proposals." The Korea Spatial Planning Review, Vol. 322, pp. 39-47 (in Korean).
4 IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York.
5 Joh, H. K., Kim, S. B., Cheong, H., Shin, H. J. and Kim, S. J. (2011). "Projection of future snowfall by using climate change scenarios." Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 188-202 (in Korean).   DOI
6 Kim, S. B., Shin, H. J., Ha, R. and Kim, S. J. (2012). "Spatiotemporal analysis of snowfall for 5 heavy snowfall areas in South Korea." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 32, No. 28, pp. 130-111 (in Korean).
7 Kim, S. B., Shin, H. J., Lee, J. W., Yu, Y. S. and Kim, S. J. (2011). "Mapping technique for heavy snowfall distribution using Terra MODIS images and ground measured snowfall data." Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 33-43 (in Korean).   DOI
8 Kim, S. B., Shin, H. J., Yun, D. K., Hong, S. W. and Kim, S. J. (2011). "Estimation of greenhouse damaged area by heavy snowfall using GIS and remote sensing technique." Journal of the Korean irrigation and drainage, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 111-121 (in Korean).
9 Korea Meteorological Administration (2010). Spatial report of abnormal climate (in Korean).
10 Lee, S. H. and Rhyu, S. B. (2003). "Impacts of global temperature rise on the change of snowfall in Korea." Journal of the Korean Geographic Society, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 463-477 (in Korean).
11 Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MIFAFF) (2010). Design and specifications of anti-disaster standards for greenhouse structures (in Korean).
12 Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MIFAFF) (2009). Standard of architectural structures (in Korean).
13 National Emergency Management Agency (2012). Disaster annual report (in Korean).
14 Soncini, A. and Bocchiola, D. (2011). "Assessment of future snowfall regimes within the Italian Alps using general circulation models." Cold Regions Science and Technology, Vol. 68, pp. 113-123.   DOI