• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.288-300
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• 2022

As industrialization and urbanization progress extensively, climate change is intensifying due to greenhouse gas emissions. In Korea, the average temperature increased, and the annual precipitation also increased due to climate change. In addition, the meaning of the solar term, which expresses seasons according to the movement of the sun, is also being overshadowed. Therefore, this study investigated the seasonal changes and solar-term changes of average temperature and precipitation observed in the past as well as simulated for future RCP climate change scenarios for five major regions (Capital Region, Gyeongsang, Chungcheong, Jeolla, and Gangwon). For the seasonal length, the length of summer became longer, the length of winter became shorter nationwide, and the precipitation in summer generally increased compared to the past. In the Chungcheong area, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the length of summer increased by 46%, precipitation increased by 16.2%, and the length of winter decreased by 31.8% compared to the past. For the solar term, the temperature rose in all seasons. In the Chungcheong area, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the temperature of major heat increased by 15.5%, and the temperature of major cold increased by 75.7% compared to the past. The overall results showed that the hydrological characteristics of the season and solar term were identified by region, which can be used as basic data to prepare policies to respond to climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.30-30
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• 2017

한반도의 기후변화는 전 세계 평균보다도 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 최근 빈발하고 있는 태풍 및 극한 강우, 폭설과 한파, 온난화 현상 등이 그 예이다. 특히 북한지역은 오랜 식량난과 에너지난으로 산림생태계가 훼손되어 홍수 및 이수와 같은 기후변화 관련 자연재해에 매우 취약하다. 이렇게 예상되는 대규모 자연재해를 대비하고 기후변화에 효율적으로 대처하기 위해서는 체계적이고 과학적인 기상 및 기후 예측 정보의 활용이 매우 중요하다. 하지만 북한지역은 우리가 수문자료를 구하기가 힘들고, 직접 측정을 할 수 없으므로 수문자료의 수집에 한계가 있기 때문에 기후변화관련 수문연구에 한계점이 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 WMO에서 제공하고 있는 북한의 27개 기상관측소의 강수량, 기온자료와 기상청의 RCP8.5기후변화시나리오를 제공 받아 각 관측소별 미래 잠재증발산량을 산정하였다. 또한 lumped conceptual model인 WASMOD 모형을 이용하여 북한의 대표유역(금야강, 대동강, 두만강, 압록강, 예성강, 임진강, 장연남대천)에 적용하여 부족한 수문시계열자료를 산정하였다. 이렇게 산정된 북한의 미래 수문순환요소의 시계열자료를 이용하여 통계분석, 변화점분석, 유황분석등 시계열 분석 등을 통해 RCP8.5기후변화시나리오 기반의 기후변화가 북한지역의 수문순환과정에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 이를 통해 유역규모의 수자원에 미치는 영향을 전망하였다.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.77-87
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• 2016

Predicting possible distributed area of Schisandra chinensis which has long term cultivation period among non-timber forest products is needed to be studied to deal with climate change. Hence, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted under two scenario, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with ensemble of 5 climate models used in IPCC AR5. According to estimation using RCP 4.5, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in 2050s appeared to decrease 43% of current area and appeared to decrease 57% in 2070s respectively. Moreover, According to estimation using RCP 8.5, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in 2050s appeared to decrease 55% of current area and appeared to decrease 85% in 2070s. As a final outcome, Schisandra chinensis was estimated to extinct in the future except Gangwon-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do when analyzing change between current distributed area and future distributed area. As a result, those areas were classified as vulnerable areas to climate change. Therefore, Gangwon-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do were thought to be ideal for growing Schisandra chinensis. The result from this study can be used to provide basic information for selecting proper area of Schisandra chinensis considering climate change effect.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.120-139
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• 2020

This study is to assess the future agricultural land use and climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement using CLUE-s(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) and RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 HadGEM3-RA(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 Regional Atmosphere) scenario. For Nonsan city(55,517.9ha), the rice paddy, upland crop, and greenhouse cultivation were considered for agricultural land uses and DIROM(Daily Irrigation Reservoir Operation Model) was applied to benefited areas of Tapjeong reservoir (5,713.3ha) for Irrigation Water Requirement(IWR) estimation. For future land use change simulation, the CLUE-s used land uses of 2007, 2013, and 2019 from Ministry of Environment(MOE) and 6 classes(water, urban, rice paddy, upland crop, forest, and greenhouse cultivation). In 2100, the rice paddy and upland crop areas decreased 5.0% and 7.6%, and greenhouse cultivation area increased 24.7% compared to 2013. For the future climate change scenario considering agricultural land use change, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 2090s(2090~2099) IWR decreased 2.1% and 1.0% for rice paddy and upland crops, and increased 11.4% for greenhouse cultivation compared to pure application of future climate change scenario.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.11-19
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• 2014

This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a social economic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it's required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.235-243
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• 2018

Loss of favorable habitats for species due to temperature increase is one of the main concerns of climate change on the ecosystem, and endangered species might be much more sensitive to such unfavorable changes. This study aimed to analyze the impact of future climate change on endangered wild animals in South Korea by investigating thermal sensitivity and vulnerability to temperature increase. We determined thermal sensitivity by testing normality in species distribution according to temperature. Then, we defined the vulnerability when the future temperature range of South Korea completely deviate from the current temperature range of species distribution. We identified 13 species with higher thermal sensitivity. Based on IPCC future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, the number of species vulnerable to future warming doubled from 3 under RCP4.5 to 7 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The species anticipated to be at risk under RCP 8.5 are flying squirrel (Pteromys volans aluco), ural owl (Pteromys volans aluco), black woodpecker (Dryocopus martius), tawny owl (Strix aluco), watercock (Gallicrex cinerea), schrenck?s bittern (Ixobrychus eurhythmus), and fairy pitta (Pitta nympha). The other 10 species showing very narrow temperature ranges even without normal distributions and out of the future temperature range may also need to be treated as vulnerable species, considering the inevitable observation scarcity of such endangered species.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.105-117
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• 2023

Climate change and invasive alien plant species (IAPs) are having a significant impact on mountain ecosystems. The combination of climate change and socio-economic development is exacerbating the invasion of IAPs, which are a major threat to biodiversity loss and ecosystem functioning. Species distribution modelling has become an important tool in predicting the invasion or suitability probability under climate change based on occurrence data and environmental variables. MaxEnt modelling was applied to predict the current suitable distribution of most noxious weed A. adenophora (Spreng) R. King and H. Robinson and analysed the changes in distribution with the use of current (year 2000) environmental variables and future (year 2050) climatic scenarios consisting of 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Bhutan. Species occurrence data was collected from the region of interest along the road side using GPS handset. The model performance of both current and future climatic scenario was moderate in performance with mean temperature of wettest quarter being the most important variable that contributed in model fit. The study shows that current climatic condition favours the A. adenophora for its invasion and RCP 2.6 climatic scenario would promote aggression of invasion as compared to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climatic scenarios. This can lead to characterization of the species as preferring moderate change in climatic conditions to be invasive, while extreme conditions can inhibit its invasiveness. This study can serve as reference point for the conservation and management strategies in control of this species and further research.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2019.08a
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• pp.281-282
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• 2019

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.600-614
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• 2013

This study aims to examine spatially-detailed changes and projection of subtropical climate zones based on the modified K$\ddot{o}$ppen-Trewartha's climate classification and extreme temperature indices using $1km{\times}1km$ high resolution RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios based on PRIDE model over the Republic of Korea. Subtropical climate zones currently located along the southern coastal region. Future subtropical climate zones would be pushed northwards expanding to the western and the eastern coastal regions as well as some metropolitan areas. For both scenarios, the frequency of cold-related extreme temperatures projects to be reduced while the frequency of hot-related ones projects to be increased. Especially, hot days with $33^{\circ}C$ or higher temperature projects to occur more than 30 days over the most of regions except for some mountain areas with high altitudes during the period of 2070~2100. This study might provide essential information to make climate change adaptation processes be enhanced.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.433-446
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• 2021

In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.