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http://dx.doi.org/10.14249/eia.2016.25.1.77

Predicting change of suitable plantation of Schisandra chinensis with ensemble of climate change scenario  

Lee, Sol Ae (Department of Environment & Forest Resources, Chungnam National University)
Lee, Sang-Hyuk (Institute of Agricultural Science, Chungnam National University)
Ji, Seung-Yong (Department of Environment & Forest Resources, Chungnam National University)
Choi, Jaeyong (Department of Environment & Forest Resources, Chungnam National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment / v.25, no.1, 2016 , pp. 77-87 More about this Journal
Abstract
Predicting possible distributed area of Schisandra chinensis which has long term cultivation period among non-timber forest products is needed to be studied to deal with climate change. Hence, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted under two scenario, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with ensemble of 5 climate models used in IPCC AR5. According to estimation using RCP 4.5, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in 2050s appeared to decrease 43% of current area and appeared to decrease 57% in 2070s respectively. Moreover, According to estimation using RCP 8.5, distribution of Schisandra chinensis in 2050s appeared to decrease 55% of current area and appeared to decrease 85% in 2070s. As a final outcome, Schisandra chinensis was estimated to extinct in the future except Gangwon-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do when analyzing change between current distributed area and future distributed area. As a result, those areas were classified as vulnerable areas to climate change. Therefore, Gangwon-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do were thought to be ideal for growing Schisandra chinensis. The result from this study can be used to provide basic information for selecting proper area of Schisandra chinensis considering climate change effect.
Keywords
CMIP5; RCP; SDM; Maxent; Non-timber forest Products;
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