• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative estimate

Search Result 626, Processing Time 0.035 seconds

Estimation on Optimum Fishing Effort of Walleye Pollock Fishery in the East Coast of Korea : Based on the Economic Analysis between Danish Seine Fishery and Trawl Fishery for Walleye Pollock (한국 동해 명태 어업의 적정어획노력량 추정 -동해구기선저인망어업과 동해구트롤어업의 경제성분석을 근거로-)

  • 이장욱
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-99
    • /
    • 1991
  • A quantitative analysis was carried out to monitor the commercial yield level of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the east coast of Korea, based on available data on catch and fishing effort, catch per unit of effort including fish prices from 1911 to 1988, using a traditional yield model. The results from the quantitative assessment were based to estimate maximum economic yield (MEY) and optimal fishing effort (E-opt) at MEY. On the other hand, interaction aspects between danish seine fishery and trawl fishery mainly targeting walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea were studied to predict optimal situation in fishing effort level from economic point of view which gives the most benefits to the two fisheries. Total production of walleye pollock in 1911 when its catch record was begun for the first time was about 12, 000 metric tons(M/T), and then the catch trend maintained nearly at the level of 50, 000 M/T per annum, showing a decreasing trend until 1930. The highest production from historical data base on walleye pollock fishery statistics was from the years in 1939 and 1940, about 270, 000 M/T and 26, 000 M/T, respectively. No production of the fish species was recorded during the years from 1943 to 1947, and from 1949 to 1951. From 1952 onwards annual production was only available from the southern part of 38$^{\circ}$N in the east coast. During two decades from 1952 to 1970, the production had sustained about less than 30, 000 M/T every year. Annual production showed an increasing trend from 1971, reaching a maximum level of approximately 162, 000 M/T in 1981. Afterwards, it has deceased sharply year after year and amounted to 180, 000 M/T in 1988. The catch composition of walleye pollock for different fishery segments during 1970~1988 showed that more than 70% of the total catch was from danish seine fishery until 1977 but from 1978 onwards, the catch proportion did not differ from one another, accounting for the nearly same proportion. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery maintained a decline tendency after 1977 when the values of CPUE were at level of 800 kg/haul for the former fishery and 1, 300 kg/haul for the latter fishery, respectively. CPUEs of gillnet fishery during 1980~1983 increased to about 3.5 times as high value as in the years, 1970~1979 and during 1987~1988 it decreased again to the level of the years, 1970~1978. The bottom longline fishery's CPUE wa at a very low level (20 kg/basket) through the whole study years, with exception of the value (60 kg/basket) in 1980. Fishing grounds of walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea showed a very limited distribution range. Danish seine fishery concentrated fishing around the coastal areas of Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and October~December. Distributions of fishing grounds of trawl fishery were the areas along the coastal regions in the central part of the east coast. Gillnet and bottom longline fisheries fished walleye pollock mainly in the areas of around Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and December. Relationship between CPUEs' values from danish seine fishery and trawl fishery was used to standardize fishing effort to apply to surplus production model for estimating maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimum fish effort (F-opt) at MSY. The results suggested a MSY of 114, 000 M/T with an estimated F-opt of 173, 000 hauls per year. Based on the estimates of MSY and F-opt, MEY was estimated to be about 94, 000 M/T with a range of 81, 000 to 103, 000 M/T and E-opt 100, 000 hauls per year with a range of 80, 000 to 120, 000 hauls. The estimated values of MEY and E-opt corresponded to 82% of MSY and 58% of F-opt, respectively. An optimal situation in the fishing effort level, which can envisage either simultaneously maximum yield or maximum benefit for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery, was determined from relationship between revenue and cost of running the fleet : the optimal fishing effort of danish seine fishery was about 52, 000 hauls per year, corresponding to 50 danish seiners and 27, 000 hauls per year which is equal nearly to 36 trawlers, respectively. It was anticipated that the net income from sustainable yield estimated from the respective optimal fishing effort of the two fisheries will be about 3, 800 million won for danish seine fishery and 1, 000 million won for trawl fishery.

  • PDF

Investigation of Scatter and Septal Penetration in I-131 Imaging Using GATE Simulation (GATE 시뮬레이션을 이용한 I-131 영상의 산란 및 격벽통과 보정방법 연구)

  • Jung, Ji-Young;Kim, Hee-Joung;Yu, A-Ram;Cho, Hyo-Min;Lee, Chang-Lae;Park, Hye-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.72-79
    • /
    • 2009
  • Scatter correction for I-131 plays a very important role to improve image quality and quantitation. I-131 has multiple and higher energy gamma-ray emissions. Image quality and quantitative accuracy in I-131 imaging are degraded by object scatter as well as scatter and septal penetration in the collimator. The purpose of this study was to estimate scatter and septal penetration and investigate two scatter correction methods using Monte Carlo simulation. The gamma camera system simulated in this study was a FORTE system (Phillips, Nederland) with high energy, general-purpose, parallel hole collimator. We simulated for two types of high energy collimators. One is composed of lead, and the other is composed of artificially high Z number and high density. We simulated energy spectrum using a point source in air. We estimated both full width at half maximum (FWHM) and full width at tenth maximum (FWTM) using line spread function (LSF) in cylindrical water phantom. We applied two scatter correction methods, triple energy window scatter correction (TEW) and extended triple energy window scatter correction (ETEW). The TEW method is a pixel-by pixel based correction which is easy to implement clinically. The ETEW is a modification of the TEW which corrects for scatter by using abutted scatter rejection window, which can overestimate or the underestimate scatter. The both FWHM and FWTM were estimated as 41.2 mm and 206.5 mm for lead collimator, respectively. The FWHM and FWTM were estimated as 27.3 mm and 45.6 mm for artificially high Z and high density collimator, respectively. ETEW showed that the estimation of scatter components was close to the true scatter components. In conclusion, correction for septal penetration and scatter is important to improve image quality and quantitative accuracy in I-131 imaging. The ETEW method in scatter correction appeared to be useful in I-131 imaging.

  • PDF

Evaluation of X-ray System for Nondestructive Testing on Radioactive Waste Drums (방사성폐기물 드럼 비파괴 검사를 위한 X-ray 장비 평가)

  • Park, Jong-Kil;Maeng, Seong-Jun;Lee, Yeon-Ee;Hwang, Tae-Won
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
    • /
    • v.6 no.3
    • /
    • pp.189-203
    • /
    • 2008
  • The physical and chemical properties of radioactive waste drums, which have been temporarily stored on site, should be characterized before their shipment to a disposal facility in order to prove that the properties meet the acceptance guideline. The investigation of NDT(Nondestructive Test) method was figured out that the contents in drum, the quantitative analysis of free standing water and void fraction can be examined with X-ray NDT techniques. This paper describes the characteristics of X-ray NDT such as its principles, the considerations for selection of X-ray system, etc. And then, the waste drum characteristics such as drum type and dimension, contents in drum, etc. were examined, which are necessary to estimate the optimal X-ray energy for NDT of a drum. The estimation results were that: $(R)\acute{A}$ the proper X-ray energy is under 3 MeV to test the drums of 320 ${\beta}\S$ and less; $(R)\ddot{E}$ both X-ray systems of 450 keV and/or 3 MeV might be needed considering the economical efficiency and the realization. The number of drums that can be tested with 450 keV and 3 MeV X-ray system was figured out as 42,327 and 18,105 drums (based on storage of 2006. 12), respectively. Four testing scenarios were derived considering equipment procurement method, outsourcing or not, etc. The economical and feasibility assessment for the scenarios was resulted in that an optimal scenario is dependent on the acceptance guide line, the waste generator's policy on the waste treatment and the delivery to a disposal facility, etc. For example, it might be desirable that a waste generator purchases two 450 keV mobile system to examine the drums containing low density waste, and that outsourcing examination for the high density drums, if all NDT items such as quantitative analysis for 'free standing water' and 'void fraction', and confirmation of contents in drum have to be characterized. However, one 450 keV mobile system seems to be required to test only the contents in 13,000 drums per year.

  • PDF

Forest Vegetation Classification and Quantitative Analysis of Picea jezoensis and Abies hollophylla stand in Mt. Gyebang (계방산 가문비나무 및 전나무 임분의 산림식생유형분류와 정량적 분석)

  • Ko, Seung-Yeon;Han, Sang-Hak;Lee, Won-Hee;Han, Sim-Hee;Shin, Hak-Sub;Yun, Chung-Weon
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.182-196
    • /
    • 2014
  • In this study, for the forest vegetation classification and the quantitative analysis of the Picea jezoensis and Abies hollophylla stand, the type classification of the vegetation structure was performed with Z-M phytosociological method, and as a result, it was classified into the Picea jenoensis community and the Abies holophylla community in the community unity. The Picea jezoensis community was subdivided into the Rosa koreana group and the Acer ukurunduense group in the group unity and the Abies holophylla community was subdivided into the Acer mandshuricum group and the Lindera obtusiloba group. In the results of estimating the importance value based on the classified vegetation unity, it was deemed that the dominance of the Picea jezoensis would be continued for a while as the importance value from the tree layers of vegetation unity 1 and 2 represented relatively high with 30.73% and 20.25%. In addition, in the results of analyzing the species diversity to estimate the maturity of the community, the species diversity index of the vegetation unity 4 was the lowest with 0.6976 and that of vegetation unity 2 was the highest with 1.1256. As in the similarity between the communities, the vegetation unit 1 and 4 and the vegetation unit 2 and 4 represented low with 0.2880 and 0.3626, respectively, and the similarity between the vegetation unit 1 and 2 and between 2 and 4 represented 0.5411 and 0.5041, respectively, it was deemed that they were the communities that the difference in the composition species between the communities was not big. In the results of analyzing the Chi-square matrix and the catalog of constellations for the interspecific, they were divided mainly into two types, and type 1 plant species were mostly differential species and the characteristic species, which appeared in the Picea jezoensis community classified phytosociologically, and type II plant species were mostly the species appearing in the Abies holophylla community growing in the relatively damp places. Such results is deemed that the positive (+) correlation is recognized among the species, of which growing environments are similar, and the negative (-) correlation .represents among the species, of which preferential environments are different.

A Study on the Method for Quantifying CO2 Contents in Decarbonated Slag Materials by Differential Thermal Gravimetric Analysis (DTG 분석법을 활용한 슬래그류 비탄산염 재료의 CO2 정량 측정방법 연구)

  • Jae-Won Choi;Byoung-Know You;Yong-Sik Chu;Min-Cheol Han
    • Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.8-16
    • /
    • 2024
  • Limestone (CaCO3, calcium carbonate), which is used as a raw material in the portland cement and steel industry, emits CO2 through decarbonation by high temperatures in the manufacturing process. To reduce CO2 emissions by the use of raw materials like limestone, it has been proposed to replace limestone with various industrial by-products that contain CaO but less or none of the carbonated minerals, that cause CO2 emissions. Loss of Ignition (LOI), Thermogravimetric analysis (TG), and Infrared Spectroscopy (IR) are used to quantitative the amount of CO2 emission by using these industrial by-products, but CO2 emissions can be either over or underestimated depending on the characteristics of by-product materials. In this study, we estimated CO2 contents by LOI, TG, IR and DTG(Differential Thermogravimetric analysis) of calcite(CaCO3) and samples that contain CO2 in the form of carbonate and whose weight increases by oxidation at high temperatures. The test results showed for CaCO3 samples, all test methods have a sufficient level of reliability. On the other hand, for the CO2 content of the sample whose weight increases at high temperature, LOI and TG did not properly estimate the CO2 content of the sample, and IR tended to overestimate compared to the predicted value, but the estimated result by DTG was close to the predicted valu e. From these resu lts, in the case of samples that contain less than a few percent of CO2 and whose weight increases during the temperature that carbonate minerals decompose, estimating the CO2 content using DTG is a more reasonable way than LOI, TG, and IR.

Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery availability to estimate inland water quality parameter (수질 매개변수 추정에 있어서 항공 초분광영상의 가용성 고찰)

  • Kim, Tae-Woo;Shin, Han-Sup;Suh, Yong-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.61-73
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study reviewed an application of water quality estimation using an Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery (A-HSI) and tested a part of Han River water quality (especially suspended solid) estimation with available in-situ data. The estimation of water quality was processed two methods. One is using observation data as downwelling radiance to water surface and as scattering and reflectance into water body. Other is linear regression analysis with water quality in-situ measurement and upwelling data as at-sensor radiance (or reflectance). Both methods drive meaningful results of RS estimation. However it has more effects on the auxiliary dataset as water quality in-situ measurement and water body scattering measurement. The test processed a part of Han River located Paldang-dam downstream. We applied linear regression analysis with AISA eagle hyperspectral sensor data and water quality measurement in-situ data. The result of linear regression for a meaningful band combination shows $-24.847+0.013L_{560}$ as 560 nm in radiance (L) with 0.985 R-square. To comparison with Multispectral Imagery (MSI) case, we make simulated Landsat TM by spectral resampling. The regression using MSI shows -55.932 + 33.881 (TM1/TM3) as radiance with 0.968 R-square. Suspended Solid (SS) concentration was about 3.75 mg/l at in-situ data and estimated SS concentration by A-HIS was about 3.65 mg/l, and about 5.85mg/l with MSI with same location. It shows overestimation trends case of estimating using MSI. In order to upgrade value for practical use and to estimate more precisely, it needs that minimizing sun glint effect into whole image, constructing elaborate flight plan considering solar altitude angle, and making good pre-processing and calibration system. We found some limitations and restrictions such as precise atmospheric correction, sample count of water quality measurement, retrieve spectral bands into A-HSI, adequate linear regression model selection, and quantitative calibration/validation method through the literature review and test adopted general methods.

Carbon Reduction Effects of Urban Landscape Trees and Development of Quantitative Models - For Five Native Species - (도시 조경수의 탄소저감 효과와 계량모델 개발 - 5개 향토수종을 대상으로 -)

  • Jo, Hyun-Kil;Kim, Jin-Young;Park, Hye-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.42 no.5
    • /
    • pp.13-21
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study generated regression models to quantify storage and annual uptake of carbon from five native landscape tree species through a direct harvesting method, and established essential information to estimate carbon reduction effects from urban greenspaces. Tree species for the study included the Chionanthus retusus, Prunus armeniaca, Abies holophylla, Cornus officinalis, and Taxus cuspidata, which are usually planted in cities of middle Korea, but for which no information on carbon reduction is available. Ten tree individuals for each species were sampled reflecting various stem diameter sizes at a given interval. The study measured biomass for each part including the roots of sample trees to compute total carbon storage per tree. The annual carbon uptake per tree was quantified by analyzing the radial growth rates of stem samples at breast height or ground level. Regression models were developed using diameter at breast height (dbh) or ground level (dg) as an independent variable to easily estimate storage and annual uptake of carbon per tree for each species. All the regression models showed high fitness with $r^2$ values of 0.92~0.99. Storage and annual uptake of carbon from a tree with dbh of 10 cm were greatest with C. retusus (20.0 kg and 5.9 kg/yr, respectively), followed by P. armeniaca (17.5 kg and 4.5 kg/yr) and A. holophylla (13.2kg and 1.8 kg/yr) in order. A C. officinalis tree and T. cuspidata tree with dg of 10 cm stored 9.3 and 6.3 kg of carbon and annually sequestered 3.2 and 0.6 kg, respectively. The above-mentioned carbon storage equaled the amount of carbon emitted from gasoline consumption of about 23~35 L for C. retusus, P. armeniaca, and A. holophylla, and 11~16 L for C. officinalis and T. cuspidata. A tree with the diameter size of 10 cm annually offset carbon emissions from gasoline use of about 6~10 L for C. retusus, P. armeniaca, and C. officinalis, and 1~3 L for A. holophylla and T. cuspidata. The study breaks new ground to easily quantify biomass and carbon reduction for the tree species by overcoming difficulties in direct cutting and root digging of urban landscape trees.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Pathogenic Vibrio through Sea Squirt Consumption in Korea (우렁쉥이에 대한 병원성 비브리오균 정량적 미생물 위해평가)

  • Ha, Jimyeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Oh, Hyemin;Shin, Il-Shik;Kim, Young-Mog;Park, Kwon-Sam;Yoon, Yohan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.35 no.1
    • /
    • pp.51-59
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study evalutated the risk of foodborne illness from Vibrio spp. (Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio cholerae) through sea squirt consumption. The prevalence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in sea squirt was evaluated, and the predictive models to describe the kinetic behavior of the Vibrio in sea squirt were developed. Distribution temperatures and times were collected, and they were fitted to probabilistic distributions to determine the appropriate distributions. The raw data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2016 were used to estimate the consumption rates and amount of sea squirt. In the hazard characterization, the Beta-Poisson model for V. vulnificus and V. cholerae infection was used. With the collected data, a simulation model was prepared and it was run with @RISK to estimate probabilities of foodborne illness by pathogenic Vibrio spp. through sea squirt consumption. Among 101 sea squirt samples, there were no V. vulnificus positive samples, but V. cholerae was detected in one sample. The developed predictive models described the fates of Vibrio spp. in sea squirt during distribution and storage, appropriately shown as 0.815-0.907 of R2 and 0.28 of RMSE. The consumption rate of sea squirt was 0.26%, and the daily consumption amount was 68.84 g per person. The Beta-Poisson model [P=1-(1+Dose/β)] was selected as a dose-response model. With these data, a simulation model was developed, and the risks of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae foodborne illness from sea squirt consumption were 2.66×10-15, and 1.02×10-12, respectively. These results suggest that the risk of pathogenic Vibrio spp. in sea squirt could be considered low in Korea.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.17-35
    • /
    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

Relationship between Radiation and Yield of Sweet Pepper Cultivars (광량과 파프리카 품종에 따른 수량과의 상호관계)

  • Myung, Dong Ju;Bae, Jong Hyang;Kang, Jong Goo;Lee, Jeong Hyun
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.243-246
    • /
    • 2012
  • The study was aimed at the development of the simple linear regression model to estimate the fruit yield of sweet pepper and to support decision-making management for growing sweet pepper crop in Korea. For quantitative analysis of relationship between environmental data and periodical yield of sweet pepper the data obtained from the commercial Venlo-type glasshouse for 2 years. Obtained periodical yield data of five different cultivars and radiation data were accumulated and fitted by linear regression. A significant linear relationship was found between radiation integral and fruit yield, whereas the production per unit of radiation was different between cultivars. The slope of linear regression could indicate as light use efficiency for fruit production ($LUE_F$, $g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$). $LUE_F$ of 'Ferrari' was $5.85g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$, 'Fiesta' 5.32 for first year and $4.75g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$ and for second year, 'President' was $4.66g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$, 'Cupra' was $3.86g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$, and 'Boogie' was $6.48g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$. The amount of light requirement for the unit gram of fruit was between $25.88J{\cdot}g^{-1}$, for 'Cupra' and $15.42J{\cdot}g^{-1}$ for 'Boogie'. Although we found the linear relationship between radiation and fruit yield, $LUE_F$ was varied between cultivars and as well as year. The linear relationship could describe the fruit yield as function of radiation, but it needed more variable to generalization of the production, such as cultivar specifications, temperature, and number of fruits set per plant or unit of ground.