• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantile-on-quantile estimation

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A Study on the Determinants of Land Price in a New Town (신도시 택지개발사업지역에서 토지가격 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Tae Yun
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.79-90
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate the pricing factors of residential lands in new cities by estimating the pricing model of residential lands. For this purpose, hedonic equations for each quantile of the conditional distribution of land prices were estimated using quantile regression methods and the sale price date of Jangyu New Town in Gimhae. In this study, a quantile regression method that models the relation between a set of explanatory variables and each quantile of land price was adopted. As a result, the differences in the effects of the characteristics by price quantile were confirmed. The number of years that elapsed after the completion of land construction is the quadratic effect in the model because its impact may give rise to a non-linear price pattern. Age appears to decrease the price until certain years after the construction, and increases the price afterward. In the estimation of the quantile regression, land age appears to have a statistically significant impact on land price at the traditional level, and the turning point appears to be shorter for the low quantiles than for the higher quantiles. The positive effects of the use of land for commercial and residential purposes were found to be the biggest. Land demand is preferred if there are more than two roads on the ground. In this case, the amount of sunshine will improve. It appears that the shape of a square wave is preferred to a free-looking land. This is because the square land is favorable for development. The variables of the land used for commercial and residential purposes have a greater impact on low-priced residential lands. This is because such lands tend to be mostly used for rental housing and have different characteristics from residential houses. Residential land prices have different characteristics depending on the price level, and it is necessary to consider this in the evaluation of the collateral value and the drafting of real estate policy.

CAUTION OF REGIONAL FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS BASED ON WEIBULL MODEL

  • Heo, Jun-Haeng;Lee, Dong-Jin;Kim, Kyung-Duk
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 2000
  • Regional flood frequency analysis has been developed by employing the nearby site's information to improve a precision in estimating flood quantiles at the site of interest. In this paper, single site and regional flood frequency analyses were compared based of the 2-parameter Weibull model. For regional analysis, two approaches were employed. The First one is to use the asymptotic variances of the quantile estimators derived based of the assumption that all sites including the site of interest are independent each other. This approach may give the maximum regional gain due to the spatial independence assumption among sites. The second one in Hosking's regional L-moment algorithm. These methods were applied to annual flood data. As the results, both methods generally showed the regional gain at the site of interest depending on grouping the sites as homogeneous. And asymptotic formula generally shows smaller variance than those from Hosking's algorithm. If the shape parameter of the site of interest from single site analysis is quite different from that from regional analysis then Hosking's results might be better than the asymptotic ones because the formula was derived based on the assumption that all sites have the same regional shape parameter. Furthermore, in such a case, regional analysis might be worse than single site analysis in the sense of precision of flood quantile estimation. Even though the selected sites may satisfy Hosking's criteria, regional analysis may not give a regional gain for specific and nonexceedance probabilities.

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Determinants of Apartment Prices in Busan: A Spatial Quantile Regression (공간적 분위수 회귀분석에 의한 부산 아파트 가격 결정요인 분석)

  • Yoon, Jong-Won;Park, Sae-Woon;Jeong, Tae-Yun
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2018
  • Lots of previous researches on determinants of apartment prices in Korea consider spatial dependence while few studies regard endogeneity of spatial lag by adding a spatial lag to an OLS regression. Thus, this study intends to include this spatial lag in its analysis of determinants of apartment price in Busan by using a two-stage quantile regression. The empirical results are : the coefficient of spatial lag variable is more than 0.5 and is statistically significant at 1% level. From this result we can confirm that the effect of the price of nearby apartment on that of another apartment is very big. We also find that apartment buyers prefer larger size, height in both the total floors and living floor, south-facing living room with a ocean view, and proximity to metros, high school and coast. Unlike our expectation, however, mountain view is less favored than building view, which we can guess is because apartments with mountain views are mostly located in the low-priced apartment area where some of their living rooms face north. Quantile regression also explains the effect of hedonic characteristics on apartment price better than OLS estimation. For instance, the effect of south facing living room variable on the price is twice larger in high-price apartments than in low-price counterparts. And the effect of vicinity to the coast or the ocean is ten times bigger in high priced apartments.

Selection of bandwidth for local linear composite quantile regression smoothing (국소 선형 복합 분위수 회귀에서의 평활계수 선택)

  • Jhun, Myoungshic;Kang, Jongkyeong;Bang, Sungwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.733-745
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    • 2017
  • Local composite quantile regression is a useful non-parametric regression method widely used for its high efficiency. Data smoothing methods using kernel are typically used in the estimation process with performances that rely largely on the smoothing parameter rather than the kernel. However, $L_2$-norm is generally used as criterion to estimate the performance of the regression function. In addition, many studies have been conducted on the selection of smoothing parameters that minimize mean square error (MSE) or mean integrated square error (MISE). In this paper, we explored the optimality of selecting smoothing parameters that determine the performance of non-parametric regression models using local linear composite quantile regression. As evaluation criteria for the choice of smoothing parameter, we used mean absolute error (MAE) and mean integrated absolute error (MIAE), which have not been researched extensively due to mathematical difficulties. We proved the uniqueness of the optimal smoothing parameter based on MAE and MIAE. Furthermore, we compared the optimal smoothing parameter based on the proposed criteria (MAE and MIAE) with existing criteria (MSE and MISE). In this process, the properties of the proposed method were investigated through simulation studies in various situations.

New Normalization Methods using Support Vector Machine Regression Approach in cDNA Microarray Analysis

  • Sohn, In-Suk;Kim, Su-Jong;Hwang, Chang-Ha;Lee, Jae-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Bioinformatics Conference
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    • 2005.09a
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 2005
  • There are many sources of systematic variations in cDNA microarray experiments which affect the measured gene expression levels like differences in labeling efficiency between the two fluorescent dyes. Print-tip lowess normalization is used in situations where dye biases can depend on spot overall intensity and/or spatial location within the array. However, print-tip lowess normalization performs poorly in situation where error variability for each gene is heterogeneous over intensity ranges. We proposed the new print-tip normalization methods based on support vector machine regression(SVMR) and support vector machine quantile regression(SVMQR). SVMQR was derived by employing the basic principle of support vector machine (SVM) for the estimation of the linear and nonlinear quantile regressions. We applied our proposed methods to previous cDNA micro array data of apolipoprotein-AI-knockout (apoAI-KO) mice, diet-induced obese mice, and genistein-fed obese mice. From our statistical analysis, we found that the proposed methods perform better than the existing print-tip lowess normalization method.

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A Modified Definition on the Process Capability Index Cpk Based on Median

  • Park, Hyo-Il
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.527-535
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    • 2011
  • This study proposes a modified definition about $C_{pk}$ based on median as the centering parameter in order to more easily control the process since the mean does not represent any quantile of the asymmetric process distribution. Then we consider an estimate and derive the asymptotic normality for the estimate of the modified $C_{pk}$. In addition, we provide an example with asymmetric distributions and discuss the estimation for the limiting variance that are followed by some concluding remarks.

A Study on the Estimation of Extreme Quantile of Probability Distribution (확률 분포형의 극치 수문량 예측 능력 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jinseok;Shin, Hongjoon;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.399-400
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    • 2017
  • 홍수나 가뭄 등 극치 현상의 통계분석 및 빈도해석에 있어 극치분포형이 널리 사용되고 있으며, 이러한 극치분포형의 특성을 이해하기 위해서는 분포형의 오른쪽 꼬리(right tail) 부분 특성을 자세히 분석할 필요가 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 Monte Carlo 모의를 통하여 다양한 극치분포형의 오른쪽 꼬리 부분의 통계적 특성 및 그 예측 능력을 연구하였다. 극치분포형으로는 우리나라 확률수문량 산정에 널리 활용되고 있는 generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel, generalized logistic 분포를 사용하였으며, 매개변수 산정 방법으로는 확률가중모멘트법을 사용하였다. 모의실험의 모분포로는 수문빈도해석에서 많이 사용되는 GEV 분포를 사용하였고, 30년 이상 자료를 보유한 기상청 지점 자료의 왜곡도를 조사하여 모의실험에 사용되는 모집단의 왜곡도로 가정하여 표본 자료를 발생시켰다. 예측 능력의 평가는 재현기간 10~1000년의 확률수문량을 왜곡도계수를 고려한 GEV 도시위치공식을 이용하여 GEV 확률지에 도시하고, 평균제곱근오차(root mean square error), 편의(bias), 평균상대오차(mean relative difference), 평균절대상대오차(mean absolute relative difference)를 이용하여 최적 분포형을 선정함으로써 이루어진다. 또한 예측 능력 평가결과의 타당성 확인을 위해 극치분포형의 적합정도를 잘 나타낸다고 알려진 modified Anderson-Darling 방법의 검정결과와 비교하여 적절성을 확인하였다.

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Two-Sample Inference for Quantiles Based on Bootstrap for Censored Survival Data

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.159-169
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    • 1993
  • In this article, we consider two sample problem with randomly right censored data. We propse two-sample confidence intervals for the difference in medians or any quantiles, based on bootstrap. The bootstrap version of two-sample confidence intervals proposed in this article is simple to apply and do not need the assumption of the shift model, so that for the non-shift model, the density estimation is not necessary, which is an attractive feature in small to moderate sized sample case.

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Rainfall Quantile Estimation Using Scaling Property in Korea (스케일 성질을 이용한 확률강우량의 추정)

  • Jung, Young-Hun;Kim, Soo-Young;Kim, Tae-Soon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.9
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    • pp.873-884
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    • 2008
  • In this study, rainfall quantile was estimated using scale invariance property of rainfall data with different durations and the applicability of such property was evaluated for the rainfall data of South Korea. For this purpose, maximum annual rainfall at 22 recording sites of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) having relatively long records were used to compare rainfall quantiles between at-site frequency analysis and scale invariance property. As the results, the absolute relative errors of rainfall quantiles between two methods show at most 10 % for hourly rainfall data. The estimated quantiles by scale invariance property can be generally applied in the 8 of 14 return periods used in this study. As an example of down-scaling method, rainfall quantiles of $10{\sim}50$ minutes duration were estimated by scale invariance property based on index duration of 1 hour. These results show less than 10 % of absolute relative errors except 10 minutes duration. It is found that scale invariance property can be applied to estimate rainfall quantile for unmeasured rainfall durations.

Comparison of Parameter Estimation Methods in A Kappa Distribution

  • Park Jeong-Soo;Hwang Young-A
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2005
  • This paper deals with the comparison of parameter estimation methods in a 3-parameter Kappa distribution which is sometimes used in flood frequency analysis. Method of moment estimation(MME), L-moment estimation(L-ME), and maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) are applied to estimate three parameters. The performance of these methods are compared by Monte-carlo simulations. Especially for computing MME and L-ME, three dimensional nonlinear equations are simplified to one dimensional equation which is calculated by the Newton-Raphson iteration under constraint. Based on the criterion of the mean squared error, L-ME (or MME) is recommended to use for small sample size( n$\le$100) while MLE is good for large sample size.