• 제목/요약/키워드: Quantified risk analysis

검색결과 71건 처리시간 0.021초

Development of the Numerical Guide for Cost-Benefit Analysis of Occupational Radiation Exposure In the Korean Next Generation Reactor

  • Sohn, Ki-Yoon;Kang, Chang-Sun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.78-84
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    • 1997
  • The specific purpose of this study is to develop the numerical guide for the cost-benefit analysis of ORE ($/person-Sv reduction) to meet the criterion of ALARA in the design stage of the KNGR. In deriving the guide, the risk factor which is defined by the risk to unit collective radiation exposure dose (deaths/person-Sv) and the monetary value of human life ($/death) are required. The risk factor has been estimated from various clinical data accumulated for a number of years and continuously modified. And the monetary value of human life is usually quantified using the human capital approach. In this study, the risk to radiation exposure perceived by a group of people is investigated through an extensive poll survey conducted among university students in order to modify the existing risk factor for radiation exposure. And in evaluating the monetary value of human life, the QOL factor is introduced in order to incorporate the degree of public welfare or quality of life. As a result of study, a value within the range of 151, 000~172, 000 dollars per person-Sv reduction is recommended as the appropriate interim numerical guide for cost-benefit analysis of ORE to meet the criterion of ALARA in the design stage of the KNGR. A poll survey was also conducted in order to see whether the public acceptance cost of nuclear power should be incorporated in developing the guide, and the result of study shooed that such a cost does not need to be considered.

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A plant-specific HRA sensitivity analysis considering dynamic operator actions and accident management actions

  • Kancev, Dusko
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제52권9호
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    • pp.1983-1989
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    • 2020
  • The human reliability analysis is a method by which, in general terms, the human impact to the safety and risk of a nuclear power plant operation can be modelled, quantified and analysed. It is an indispensable element of the PSA process within the nuclear industry nowadays. The paper herein presents a sensitivity study of the human reliability analysis performed on a real nuclear power plant-specific probabilistic safety assessment model. The analysis is performed on a pre-selected set of post-initiator operator actions. The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of these operator actions on the plant risk by altering their corresponding human error probabilities in a wide spectrum. The results direct the fact that the future effort should be focused on maintaining the current human reliability level, i.e. not letting it worsen, rather than improving it.

위험도 분석에 근거한 최적 터널설계 사례 (A case study on the optimal tunnel design based on risk analysis)

  • 유광호
    • 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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    • 제12권5호
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    • pp.379-387
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    • 2010
  • 본 논문에서는 고속국도 제 12호선 담양-성산간의 양방향 터널의 설계 시, 지반 물성치의 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 위험도 분석에 근거하여 최적의 지보패턴 및 굴착방법을 결정하는 사례를 소개하였다. 이를 위해 지보량과 굴착방법이 다른 3 가지 적용 안을 선정하고, 터널의 안정성을 정량화할 수 있는 개념인 안전율을 사용하여 각각의 경우에 대해 Monte Carlo simulation 기법을 사용하여 위험도를 구하였다. 이때 결과의 신뢰도를 높이기 위하여 정규분포를 만족하는 총 729가지 경우의 지반물성치 조합 (변형계수, 점착력, 내부마찰각)을 생성하여 사용하였다. 또한 터널의 발생변위 및 숏크리트 휨응력 분포를 비교 분석하여 터널의 안정성을 확인하였다.

환경매체별 취약성을 반영한 장외영향평가 위험도 분석 (Risk Analysis of Off-site Risk Assessment using Vulnerability by Environmental Medium)

  • 최우수;백종배
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제33권5호
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2018
  • As the types and usage of chemical increase, modern countries should protect their health and environment from the risk of hazardous chemical. Chemical accidents not only affect humans but also cause huge losses to the environment. Moreover, since its effects do not end in a short period of time, it is necessary to identify the extent of the damage and establish a prevention and response system in advance. In 2015, the Chemical Substances Management Act provided a system for assessing the impact on the people and the environment around the workplace. However, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate the impact on environmental factors such as vegetation and aquatic, with the current hazard assessment methods. The purpose of this study is to analyze the quantitative risk of environmental receptors. This study improved the existing risk assessment formula by using the environmental vulnerability index and established the end point concentration criterion which can estimate the damage range to environmental media. To verify the results of the study, a virtual accident scenario was selected and a case study was conducted. As a result, the extent of impact on the environmental medium can be calculated, and the degree of environmental risk of the zone can be quantified through the risk analysis considering the environmental vulnerability. This study is expected to increase the reliability of the reliability of the existing risk anaylsis method beacause it is a risk analysis method that can be applied when the environmental factors are absolutely necessary and when the residents and environment are complex.

텍스트마이닝 기반의 인적재난사고사례 신뢰도 측정연구 (Measuring the Confidence of Human Disaster Risk Case based on Text Mining)

  • 이영재;이성수
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.63-79
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    • 2011
  • Deducting the risk level of infrastructure and buildings based on past human disaster risk cases and implementing prevention measures are important activities for disaster prevention. The object of this study is to measure the confidence to proceed quantitative analysis of various disaster risk cases through text mining methodology. Indeed, by examining confidence calculation process and method, this study suggests also a basic quantitative framework. The framework to measure the confidence is composed into four stages. First step describes correlation by categorizing basic elements based on human disaster ontology. Secondly, terms and cases of Term-Document Matrix will be created and the frequency of certain cases and terms will be quantified, the correlation value will be added to the missing values. In the third stage, association rules will be created according to the basic elements of human disaster risk cases. Lastly, the confidence value of disaster risk cases will be measured through association rules. This kind of confidence value will become a key element when deciding a risk level of a new disaster risk, followed up by preventive measures. Through collection of human disaster risk cases related to road infrastructure, this study will demonstrate a case where the four steps of the quantitative framework and process had been actually used for verification.

지상식 멤브레인 LNG저장탱크 안전성 향상을 위한 설계형식별 정량적 위험성 비교 평가 (The Comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment of LNG Tank Designs for the Safety Improvement of Above Ground Membrane Tank)

  • 이승림;권부길;이승현
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.57-61
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    • 2005
  • 이 연구는 결함수분석(FTA)를 이용해 완전방호 형식 및 멤브레인 형식의 KOGAS 탱크 설계에 대한 비교 정량적 위험성평가를 위해 수행하였다. 이 연구를 위해 표준 완전방호식 탱크와 초기 멤브레인 탱크 및 4가지의 개선된 멤브레인 탱크를 포함한 총 6개 모델에 대해 위험성을 평가하였다. 이 연구에서는 FTA를 이용해 누출빈도를 정량화 하였다. 분석의 명확성 및 일관성을 위해서 모든 경우는 동일한 고장수(fault tree)를 이용해 정량화하였다. 개선되지 않은 멤브레인 저장탱크(초기 모델)를 제외하고 예측된 위험도 수준은 매우 유사해서 각각의 탱크는 동일한 위험도 수준(the same level of risk)을 나타내는 것으로 평가되었다. 펌프 낙하에 의한 손상은 완전방호식 탱크에 비해서 박판으로 되어있는 멤브레인 탱크가 두드러지게 큰 것으로 예측되었다.

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Influence of reciprocating and rotary instrumentation on microbial reduction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of in vitro studies

  • Selen Kucukkaya Eren;Emel Uzunoglu-Ozyurek;Sevilay Karahan
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • 제46권2호
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    • pp.19.1-19.12
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of in vitro studies regarding the effectiveness of reciprocating and rotary instrumentation on microbial reduction in root canals. Materials and Methods: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and the gray literature were searched through December 2019. Studies comparing the influence of reciprocating and rotary instrumentation on the removal of microorganisms from root canals that quantified the antimicrobial effect were included. Data extraction was completed using a systematic form for data collection. The risk of bias of the studies was evaluated. Standardized mean differences (SMDs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random effects meta-analysis. Results: Seventeen in vitro studies were included in this systematic review, of which 7 provided adequate data for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Both reciprocating and rotary systems were similarly effective in reducing the microbial load in infected root canals (SMD [95% CI], 0.0481 [-0.271, 0.367]). Three studies showed a low risk of bias, whereas most of the studies (82%) presented a medium risk. Conclusions: Although both techniques decrease the microbial content (with reductions of 23.32%-88.47% and 23.33%-89.86% for reciprocating and rotary instrumentation, respectively), they are not able to provide complete disinfection of root canals.

화재 후 운전원수동조치(OMA) 정량화를 위한 화재 인간신뢰도분석 (HRA) 요소에 대한 고찰 (An Investigation of Fire Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Factors for Quantification of Post-fire Operator Manual Actions (OMA))

  • 최선영;강대일;정용훈
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제38권6호
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    • pp.72-78
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this paper is to derive a quantified approach for Operator Manual Actions (OMAs) based on the existing fire Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methodology developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The existing fire HRA method was reviewed, and supplementary considerations for OMA quantification were established through a comparative analysis with NUREG-1852 criteria and the review of the existing literature. The OMA quantification approach involves a timeline that considers the occurrence of Multiple Spurious Operations (MSOs) during a Main Control Room Abandonment (MCRA) determination and movement towards the Remote Shutdown Panel (RSP) in the event of a Main Control Room (MCR) fire. The derived failure probability of an OMA from the approach proposed in this paper is expected to enhance the understanding of its reliability. Therefore, it allows moving beyond the deterministic classification of "reliable" or "unreliable" in NUREG-1852. Also, in the event of a nuclear power plant fire where multiple OMAs are required within a critical time range, it is anticipated that the OMA failure probability could serve as a criterion for prioritizing OMAs and determining their order of importance.

건설공사 위험 정량화 모델 개발을 위한 기초 연구 (A Basic Study on the Qualitative Risk Assessment Model for Building Construction Sites Based on Claim Payouts)

  • 유영진;손기영;김지명
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.487-495
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    • 2016
  • 보험통계포털에 따르면 건설 부문의 사고로 인한 손실액이 최근 10년 동안 크게 증가하였다. 이처럼 국내 건설 공사의 리스크 관리 방안에 대한 연구가 매우 중요해지고 있으며, 이를 위해서는 내재된 리스크 요인을 도출하고 분석해야하며, 불확실성을 다루기위한 통계학적인 기법이 요구된다. 하지만 건설 리스크에 관한 연구는 대부분 정성적이며 포괄적으로 진행되었으나, 신뢰성있는 리스크 분석을 위해서는 영향이 큰 리스크 인자에 집중하고 정량적인 분석이 요구된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 공사 현장에 집중된 리스크 요인을 수집하기 위해 A보험사의 건설 현장 사고 데이터를 이용하였다. 이를 토대로 피해율과 상관 관계있는 인자를 분석하기 위해 상관분석을 수행하였다. 또한 본 연구의 목적인 건설 현장의 사고데이터를 활용한 적정 피해액 정량화 모델을 개발하고자 회귀분석을 수행하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 지속적인 피드백을 통해서 데이터의 축적 및 효과검증을 통해 발전해 나갈 수 있으리라 기대된다.

Design of safety critical and control systems of Nuclear Power Plants using Petri nets

  • Singh, Pooja;Singh, Lalit Kumar
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제51권5호
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    • pp.1289-1296
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    • 2019
  • Non-functional requirements plays a critical role in designing variety of applications domain ranges from safety-critical systems to simple gaming applications. Performance is one of the crucial non-functional requirement, especially in control and safety systems, that validates the design. System risk can be quantified as a product of probability of system failure and severity of its impact. In this paper, we devise a technique to do the performance analysis of safety critical and control systems and to estimate performance based risk factor. The technique elaborates Petri nets to estimate performability to ensure system dependability requirements. We illustrate the technique on a case study of Nuclear Power Plant system. The technique has been validated on 17 safety critical and control systems of Nuclear Power Plant.